2013 Melbourne Cup: Preview and top tips

The 2013 Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) is the most open Cup in history. Gone are the days when you could take a black marker to half the field 30 minutes after the barrier draw on Derby night.

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This year there are nine internationally-trained runners in the race. Of the 15 Australian-trained gallopers, ten are imports and five (down from six last year) are locally bred.

There is almost no dead wood in this Cup and that makes finding the winner an incredibly difficult exercise.

Nonetheless, here are my thoughts on the 24 competitors set to do battle on the banks of the Maribyrnong River at Flemington on Tuesday at 3pm.

1. Dunaden (Trainer: Mikel Delzangles (France), Jockey: Jamie Spencer, Barrier: 1, Weight: 58.5kg, $41)

For: Dunaden comes back to Australia for a third time having won an Australian major on each of his last two visits. In 2011, he was the victor in this race with 54.5kgs and last year he won the Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group 1, handicap), coming from last, with 58kgs.

Dunaden’s form in 2013 has been very strong racing against the best European opposition, mainly at 2400m (which I think is this guy’s best distance). On class and past performances alone, he demands more respect than the $41 quote suggests he will get.

Against: Importantly in the 2012 Melbourne Cup he failed with 59kgs (he drops back to 58.5kgs in 2013) but circumstances were against him on that occasion. He needs a solid speed up front to perform at his best and that’s not a given in this race.

Only two top weights have won the Melbourne Cup since 1950 – Rising Fast (1954) and Makybe Diva (2005). Both those horses would be ranked in most racing pundits’ top 15 racehorses to have ever raced in Australia.

As well as that only two horses have won two Melbourne Cups in non-consecutive years – Peter Pan (1932, 1934) and Makybe Diva (2003, 2005). There is a school of thought that says Peter Pan (who succeeded Phar Lap) would have given Big Red a good race and that gives some insight into how good he was.

2. Green Moon (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Brett Prebble, Barrier: 10, Weight: 57.5kg, $41)

For: Green Moon is the defending Cup winner back for a second tilt at the Cup after carrying 54.5kgs last year.

Since running a strong fifth in the Memsie (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) first-up in August things haven’t gone to plan.

Against: He was well back in the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age), as he was last year, but this time he had missed a run, because of a setback, in the Caulfield Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age).

Does the setback make the Cox Plate run look better? Or is it the derailing of his Cup campaign?

Two keys features of Green Moon’s 2012 Cup success were a drop in weight from the Cox Plate to Melbourne Cup and a great ride from Brett Prebble after the race panned out perfectly.

Take on a Lloyd Williams runner at your peril – I’m brave, I’ll take on Green Moon again.

3. Red Cadeaux (Trainer: Ed Dunlop (England), Jockey: Gerald Mosse, Barrier: 23, Weight: 56.5kg, $67)

For: Red Cadeaux is back for another go at the Melbourne Cup after running second in 2011 and eighth in 2012. I think he’s a rough chance and worth a shot in any trifectas I may have.

When I saw last year’s Melbourne Cup on replay a few weeks ago, Red Cadeaux really caught the eye in the final furlong. It was a great run in the circumstances!

Red Cadeaux saves his best form for when he is fresh – and he is fresh here. Along with two great runs in the Melbourne Cup fresh, he also ran a cracking second in Animal Kingdom’s Dubai World Cup (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) first-up from a spell in March.

Against: The handicapper hasn’t missed him with 56.5kgs (up from 53.5kgs in 2011 and 55.5kgs in 2012) but even still I don’t think he’s harshly treated. He often has to carry the top weight in conditions races in England.

His form in England this year has been a bit middling. Still, I think he’s the best of the old blokes.

4. Sea Moon (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Steven Arnold, Barrier: 7, Weight: 56.5kg, $15)

For: Lloyd Williams’ Sea Moon is the best horse in the Melbourne Cup and he isn’t the top weight. That’s a good way to start. He enters this race, at the end of his first Australian prep, after defying history by carrying 59.5kgs to victory in the Herbert Power (2400m, Group 2, handicap) on Guineas Day. He is in great form.

At the 2012 Royal Ascot meeting and at set weights, Sea Moon beat both Dunaden and Red Cadeaux (the previous year’s Cup quinella) decisively in the Hardwicke (2400m, Group 2), even though Dunaden had an impeded path, and then he followed that up by beating Dunaden again in the King George.

Against: Well I think Sea Moon can win the Melbourne Cup except I’m unsure about his ability to stay 3200m – he was a four-length third in the 2011 English St Leger (2900m, Group 1, three-year-olds) as favourite, and on suitable good ground, in his only try beyond 2500m.

The question is how much weight should be applied to that distance issue. As a strong, fit, older horse, he will be there at the 1000m mark ready to have a say.

If he can get to the front in the straight, he’ll give them something to chase. This horse is as tough as nails. Don’t want to declare him the winner, but will want to have money on him anyway.

5. Brown Panther (Trainer: Tom Dascombe (England), Jockey: Robert Kingscote, Barrier: 6, Weight: 55kg, $19)

For: The Michael Owen-owned galloper will be aiming to land England’s first Melbourne Cup. He comes here in great form having won the Goodwood Cup (3200m, Group 2) in August by more than three lengths.

Way down the track on that occasion were the well-performed Cavalryman, Colour Vision, Mount Athos (runs here and was eighth there) and Saddler’s Rock. I’m not sure what to make of that form except to say that the Goodwood course has dramatic slopes and can be conducive to an interesting result.

I’d rather assess Brown Panther on his overall career performances. I’m confident he’ll stay the trip.

Against: Last season, Brown Panther’s measure was had by Mount Athos (by three lengths in the Freer) and by Sea Moon and Dundaen (narrowly in the King George). I think those formlines could be more reliable than the Goodwood Cup. Brown Panther, however, was one of the two horses that beat Sea Moon in the 2011 English St Leger.

So even off his old form, he’s not the worst and not by a mile. I’ll be a little surprised if he wins the Melbourne Cup but a top five finish would not shock at all because he can run a strong 3200m and is a genuine Group horse in England.

If you want to see owner Michael Owen win the Cup, I’m not going to talk you out of Brown Panther.

6. Fiorente (Trainer: Gai Waterhouse, Jockey: Damien Oliver, Barrier: 5, Weight: 55kg, $7)

For: On facts and figures, Fiorente deserves his Melbourne Cup favouritism. It’s that simple. He was second last year with 53.5kgs and is well-in again with 55kgs.

He hasn’t run a bad race in Australia and has the turn of foot to paralyse his rivals. I’d rate his four starts this spring as good (Memsie), brilliant (Dato Tan Chin Nam), excellent (Turnbull) and excellent (Cox Plate).

From the Cox Plate, he drops four kilos into this after running third. And the Cox Plate form got a good franking in the Mackinnon (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) when Side Glance, sixth in the Cox Plate, won that race on Saturday.

Against: Well the only thing stopping Fiorente from winning the Melbourne Cup is the distance. Sure, he was second last year, but for 1000m in that race they walked. It was effectively a 2200m race. If it’s truly run, he could come unstuck here because he is untapped at two miles.

Some experts think Gai Waterhouse has had Fiorente in training for the Melbourne Cup for too long. I’m prepared to side with Gai here. I don’t think Fiorente has peaked yet.

7. Foreteller (Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Craig Newitt, Barrier: 15, Weight: 55kg, $34)

For: Like Fiorente, Foreteller enters this race in great form. He was fourth in the Cox Plate, second to Atlantic Jewel in the Caulfield Stakes, had excuses in the Underwood (1800m, Group 1, weight-for-age) and won the Makybe Diva (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age) at this course.

Also like Fiorente he drops to 55kgs here from a great Cox Plate run and should not be under-estimated. A definite winning chance at $34 because he’s flying.

Against: The distance. 2400m is about 200m too far, so how’s he going to go in the Melbourne Cup? Even if it’s moderately run, he will be out-stayed in my opinion. If it’s slowly run, he’s a chance.

This was also an after-thought from trainer Chris Waller. For months, the Mackinnon (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) was his aim. After the Cox Plate, plans were shifted. I’ll take him on.

8. Dandino (Trainer: Marco Botti (England), Jockey: Ryan Moore, Barrier: 4, Weight: 54.5kg, $11)

For: I think a bad Craig Williams ride cost Dandino the Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group 1, handicap). And right now that’s a great thing to have in your favour because that second-place finish (a super run in any case) meant Dandino avoided a Melbourne Cup handicap penalty he surely would’ve received for winning that race.

That was Dandino’s first run in Australia for Italian-born trainer Marco Botti and it was full of merit. On his European form, Dandino is a definite chance. In the 2013 Hardwicke, he had Mount Athos well covered. And that’s very good form.

Against: Maybe the distance again. He is at his best at 2400m I reckon but a lot of the time, it is 2400m horses from England that run well in the Melbourne Cup. Generally speaking, 2400m horses from England tend to have the speed required to win in Australia over two miles.

What’s a little more concerning is that his connections showed their hand before Caulfield and said the 2400m handicap was Dandino’s main aim. That means we might not see a lot of improvement second-up here.

Nonetheless, he’s a winning hope.

9. Ethiopia (Trainer: Pat Carey, Jockey: Rhys McLeod, Barrier: 14, Weight: 54.5kg, $81)

For: Don’t want to offend any Ethiopia owners, but, finally a horse I can’t see winning. Ethiopia won the 2012 Australian Derby (2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds) and was fourth in last year’s Cox Plate.

Against: He was last in the 2012 Melbourne Cup. And we haven’t seen his best form since. He was fourth in Saturday’s Lexus (2500m, Group 3, handicap) and, while his run was quite good, Ethiopia is threatening for a bottom-four finish because this Melbourne Cup, perhaps the strongest ever renewal, is deeper than the Pacific Ocean.

10. Fawkner (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Nick Hall, Barrier: 8, Weight: 54.5kg, $19)

For: The Caulfield Cup winner, Fawkner, enters this Melbourne Cup in outstanding form. Not only did he have the whole Caulfield Cup field finish behind him, but in the Turnbull (2000m, Group 1, set weights and penalties) he beat home Cup combatants Fiorente, Hawkspur, Dear Demi and Super Cool.

Against: The Caulfield Cup was Fawkner’s aim this spring. Because he won the 2400m handicap, he was penalised a kilo for this race and that means he meets just about every horse from the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup worse at the weights.

As well as that, Fawkner isn’t a 3200m horse. I’m prepared to take him on. It’s a risk be to be so negative on him (his form is fantastic) but a month ago I thought Fawkner was a miler. He surely can’t win the Melbourne Cup.

11. Mourayan (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Brenton Avdulla, Barrier: 19, Weight: 54.5kg, $101)

For: Mourayan is the 2013 Sydney Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) winner at this distance. He was seventh in this race last year. I’d be shocked if he didn’t finish in the top dozen – he will stay the trip no problems.

Against: But he doesn’t have the class (or the speed) to win this race. On top of that, his form this time in has been only average for a Melbourne Cup of incredible strength.

I’m taking on another of Lloyd’s!

12. Seville (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.5kg , $17)

For: Seville is a very good horse. He was a top three-year-old in Europe having run second in Group 1 classics held in 2011 in England and France over 2400m.

In Australia, Seville was a cracking second to Green Moon in last year’s Turnbull and was strong to the line when winning Randwick’s Metropolitan Handicap (2400m, Group 1, handicap) this October.

In the Cox Plate he was a decent seventh but well beaten by Fiorente and Foreteller. Off that form, I think he’s right in the Melbourne Cup but still needs to make-up the five lengths the aforementioned duo beat him by at the Valley.

A length or two of that five lengths comes at the weights (he gets a 0.5kgs pull on the two ‘Fs’).

Against: But because I think Seville is best at 2400m, I think he may struggle to make up the remainder of that ground. If the Cox Plate turns out to be a hot race in this Melbourne Cup, he can run top five. He may even win, I guess.

But I think, it’s more likely that he finishes somewhere between sixth and 12th. A winning hope in many people’s books, I’m taking on Seville.

13. Super Cool (Trainer: Mark Kavanagh, Jockey: Corey Brown, Barrier: 13, Weight: 54.5kg, $51)

For: Super Cool is three times the odds of Seville and that’s crazy because he’s a better chance in my opinion. A genuine weight-for-age horse, Super Cool won the Australian Cup (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) in the autumn as a three-year-old.

Interestingly Saintly, the 1996 Melbourne Cup winner, also won the 1996 Australian Cup as a three-year-old. Saintly carried 55.5kgs to his Cup success (that came off the back of a determined victory in the Cox Plate), while Super Cool has 54.5kgs in the Cup and was three lengths astern, in fifth, in this year’s Cox Plate.

Against: Foreteller beat Super Cool in the Cox Plate and he also beat him in the Caulfield Stakes. But Super Cool had about seven lengths on Foreteller in the Australian Cup.

That more than anything shows how far Foreteller has come this year. Super Cool can win the Melbourne Cup but because he is not a 3200m horse, it’s more likely that a good run sees him finish fourth or fifth, especially if the Cox Plate form stands up. And I think it could.

I reckon he’ll beat Seville but would be a little surprised to see him win.

14. Masked Marvel (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Michael Rodd, Barrier: 2, Weight: 54kg, $26)

For: Masked Marvel will stay 3200m. He looks like he’s dying to get out to that trip. He was the horse that beat Sea Moon when winning the 2011 English St Leger.

Against: Masked Marvel was hopeless in the Cox Plate when 13th and looks like a genuine handicapper (of the ‘not of Melbourne Cup class’ variety) in Australia.

You have to respect all of Lloyd’s horses but I don’t think Masked Marvel is good enough to win this race. As an example, he was beaten by 12 lengths in the 2012 Freer (2600m, Group 3) won by Mount Athos from Brown Panther.

It was Brown Panther who was second to Masked Marvel in the 2011 St Leger. Masked Marvel – 25/1 in the market; should be triple-figure odds!

15. Mount Athos (Trainer: Luca Cumani (England), Jockey: Craig Williams, Barrier: 22, Weight: 54kg, $10)

For: He should’ve won the race last year but a slow pace and bad ride meant the best he could finish was fifth. I was watching the races in the early hours of the morning when he returned with a nine-length romp of the Ormonde (2600m, Group 3) at Chester earlier in the year.

And at that moment, I thought he’d be the horse to beat in 2013. He then went to Royal Ascot and was very one-paced and no match for Dandino, who was second, in the Hardwicke.

Mount Athos followed that with a disturbing failure in the Goodwood Cup behind Brown Panther – who I’m sure is inferior to an in-form Mount Athos.

Pleasingly, Mount Athos found his best numbers with a good second behind Harris Tweed (who then franked the form) in the March Stakes (2800m, Listed) at Goodwood in September.

I think Mount Athos is a definite winning chance. He’s run well in Australia before and is one of the better international hopes.

Against: But he was well handled by Dandino in the Hardwicke. Admittedly, Mount Athos wasn’t at his best that afternoon but he only has a 0.5kg swing on Dandino for that defeat.

Because Dandino has shown us that he’s in good form in Australia, I’d be prepared to say that he’d beat Mount Athos again. It wouldn’t surprise me to see both horses finish high up here. Mount Athos is a good chance in a wide Cup.

16. Royal Empire (Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor (England), Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, Barrier: 11, Weight: 54kg, $21)

For: Royal Empire is the only entrant for the rich and powerful Godolphin stable as they once again go in search of that elusive Melbourne Cup crown. He brings in good English Group 3 form for the Melbourne Cup.

He beat Red Cadeaux in this year’s Freer but I don’t think it was quite as telling as last year’s running when Mount Athos dropped jaws around the globe with his demolition of Brown Panther.

Still, Royal Empire used a good turn of foot to win that race. And a good turn of foot is something English horses need when they come to Australia. The same weight scale against Red Cadeaux applies here, so it would be logical to assume we get a similar result regarding the two.

Against: But I’m not so sure about that. We know Red Cadeaux is much better when racing fresh from a break and has a record of outstanding performances when touring the world.

I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb here and say that Royal Empire’s Group 3 numbers are not good enough for this year’s Melbourne Cup.

And that comment will disappoint a few people including Roar Experts Cameron Rose and Andrew Hawkins, who I know are keen on this horse and will be cheering him on.

17. Voleuse De Coeurs (Trainer: Michael Moroney, Jockey: James McDonald, Barrier: 21, Weight: 54kg, $17)

For: Voleuse De Coeurs is a progressive former Irish stayer who provides a bit of X-Factor in this Melbourne Cup.

She started her 2013 campaign as an even-money favourite in a Limerick handicap (2500m open) and finished second – that’s a very low base to be kicking off a Melbourne Cup campaign.

She then won a Listed (2800m) by two lengths, placed twice at Group 3 level before winning the Irish St Leger (2800m, Group 2) by six lengths in September. At that point, her trainer Dermot Weld was confident Voleuse De Coeurs would be a good Melbourne Cup horse for 2014.

But after her St Leger victory, Voleuse De Coeurs was purchased a Macau-based businessman to be trained by Mike Maroney at Flemington for this year’s Melbourne Cup.

She is improving in leaps and bounds and, as such, is a definite winning chance on Tuesday. Because even if Voleuse De Coeurs was an old mare who didn’t have a lot of improvement left in her, any dominant Irish St Leger victor brings plenty to Melbourne Cup calculations.

The Irish St Leger is one of the better Melbourne Cup trials in Europe every year. It produced Vinnie Roe (four-time winner between 2001 and 2004) who ran second to Makybe Diva in the 2004 Cup and fourth to Media Puzzle in 2002. And Red Cadeaux was a close-up third in the 2011 St Leger before running second in the Cup of the same year.

This year Red Cadeaux was ten lengths back in fourth in the Irish St Leger.

Against: Weld was adamant that Voleuse De Coeurs was not ready for this year’s Melbourne Cup and as a two-time Cup winner, he demands respect. Still, I’m inclined to think Voleuse De Coeurs is an obvious winning chance.

18. Hawkspur (Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Jim Cassidy, Barrier: 18, Weight: 53.5kg, $13)

For: Hawkspur has been set for this race by Chris Waller all spring and he looks like he’s ready to peak on Tuesday. He was ridden incredibly cold when seventh in the Caulfield Cup – those tactics forced me to question in my review of the Caulfield Cup whether jockey Jimmy Cassidy was saving the horse for this race.

Prior to that he was all but equal to Fiorente when an outstanding fifth, on trial for the Cups, in the Turnbull at Flemington. Now he meets Fiorente 1.5kgs better at the weights.

Definite winning chance. He’s Aussie bred. I’ll be cheering for him!

Against: The distance. He’s by a relatively young sire – who by no means was a stayer himself – and lands in a vintage renewal of a Melbourne Cup, racing for the first time beyond 2400m.

In saying that, I’ve seen nothing to make me think he won’t stay. It’s just the obvious query.

And of course, no horse has won from barrier 18 before. Hawkspur is a great chance of ending that curse.

19. Simenon (Trainer: Willie Mullins (Ireland), Jockey: Richard Hughes, Barrier: 12, Weight: 53.5kg, $21)

Ireland is one of the five countries to have won the Melbourne Cup – Australia, New Zealand, Japan and France are the other four – and they have another great chance with Simenon here to add to their previous two successes.

This bloke is such a good stayer; I’d back him to eat 5000m. When he won twice at the 2012 Royal Ascot meeting over 4000m and 4300m respectively, he produced acceleration on both occasions I didn’t think was possible at the end of two and a half miles.

When he raced away to win over 4300m, on the same night Black Caviar won at the Royal meeting, he had me jumping off the couch at 2:30am in the middle of winter. He’s such a freakishly-talented stayer.

In 2013, he’s improved again as he’s made the step-up to Group-level racing. He was the horse that Estimate – the royal runner – beat in the 2013 Gold Cup (4000m, Group 1) at this year’s Royal Ascot.

But best of all, he’s had a run here in Australia and run very well. In the Herbert Power, over 2400m, he was an outstanding third behind Sea Moon. The step-up to two miles suits and for a horse that is Group 1 placed he is well-in with 53.5kgs.

Against: Perhaps it is his class over 3200m. Put a pen through the Gold Cup run and his form doesn’t look as good as that of Dandino or Mount Athos.

Still, I’m prepared to back him. The best roughie!

20. Ibicenco (Trainer: Peter Moody, Jockey: Luke Nolan, Barrier: 17, Weight: 53kg, $81)

For: Ibicenco won the Geelong Cup (2400m, Group 3, handicap) which has been a great form reference in the modern era.

Against: But this year’s Geelong Cup was so weak, and Ibicecno’s victory so narrow, that he simply isn’t going well enough to win a Melbourne Cup of such considerable depth.

21. Verema (Trainer: Alain De Royer-Dupre (France), Jockey: Christophe Lemaire, Barrier: 3, Weight: 53kg, $13)

For: Verema comes to Melbourne in fantastic form having won Group 2 races at her last two starts. She won the Kergolay (3000m, Group 2) which is the same race Americain and Dunaden came out of to win the Melbourne Cup and she also won the Prix Maurice De Nieuil (2800m, Group 2).

Trainer Alain de Royer Dupre won the Melbourne Cup with Americain in 2010.

Against: Both victories were by narrow margins and the form around Verema is patchy. For example, she was beaten by Last Train in April. In June, Last Train was beaten a long way in the Gold Cup in which Simenon ran second.

In the Kergolay, Verema beat Joshua Tree who has since won a second Woodbine International (2400m, Group 1) in Canada but Joshua Tree was also beaten 11 lengths in May’s Coronation Cup (2400m, Group 1) when third with Dunaden seven lengths ahead in second.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Verema win at all. But in a Melbourne Cup of a thousand chances, I’d rather back in a horse I know well and take one on that I’m not sure about. So I’m against Verema here.

22. Dear Demi (Trainer: Clarry Conners, Jockey: Chris Munce, Barrier: 16, Weight: 51kg, $21)

For: The reigning Crown Oaks (2500m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies) winner is back at Flemington 12 months later looking for more November glory.

She’s a serious winning chance and is crazy odds at the 20/1. Dear Demi ran well in the Underwood, actually beating home Happy Trails (subsequent winner of the Turnbull who was the Cox Plate runner-up) and Melbourne Cup opponents Green Moon, Foreteller, Sea Moon and Ethiopia.

The Underwood was farcically slow run. Nobody made ground so perhaps that flatters Dear Demi a bit because she did race close to the lead. In the Turnbull she was beaten home by Fawkner, Fiorente and Hawkspur but meets each of them significantly better at the weights here.

In the Caulfield Cup she beat Hawkspur and was nailed on the line by Dandino when running a great third after benefitting from a super James McDonald ride. Then in the Mackinnon won by Side Glance on Saturday, she darted up the inside running to finish a great second at weight-for-age.

She drops 5.5kgs to 51kgs here and must be considered strongly.

Against: The distance obviously. She’s never been past 2500m before but she does have Zabeel blood on the dam side of her bloodline. And nobody sires a stayer like Zabeel.

Dear Demi is a live chance.

23. Tres Blue (Trainer: Gai Waterhouse, Jockey: Tommy Berry, Barrier: 20, Weight: 51kg, $25)

For: Gai Waterhouse unveils new import Tres Blue in the Melbourne Cup. She did this last year with runner-up Fiorente, so you should be wary already.

Tres Blue is a European three-year-old so he is the youngest horse in this race by about eight months. In the form guide, Tres Blue is classified as a four-year-old because of the difference in breeding seasons and birthdates across both hemispheres.

It is worth noting that Mahler, an Irish three-year-old, ran third in Efficient’s 2007 Cup with 50.5kgs after running second in the English St Leger over a similar distance immediately prior.

Tres Blue comes here in winning form having beaten the older horses narrowly in the Prix De Reux (2500m, Group 3) and Grand Prix De Deauville (2500m, Group 2).

Against: Tres Blue is only three months older than Saturday’s Victoria Derby (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds) winner Polanski. For what it’s worth Mahler was six weeks older than Tres Blue when he ran in the Melbourne Cup.

He must carry 51kgs here (which is one kilo over weight-for-age if you classify him as a genuine three-year-old – no other horse is carrying more than weight-for-age) and he doesn’t have any form over a distance longer than 2500m.

I’m not completely sold on the form around Tres Blue and his winning margins have been very narrow, so I’m prepared to risk him in this strong Cup.

He is largely an unknown.

24. Ruscello (Trainer: Ed Walker (England), Jockey: Chad Schofield, Barrier: 24, Weight: 50kg, $50)

For: Ruscello takes winning form into the Melbourne Cup via a determined victory in Saturday’s Lexus.

Against: He carried the bottom weight on Saturday and does again here as he makes the steep rise in grade to the Melbourne Cup.

Prior to coming out to Australia, Ruscello ran third and fourth in a stack of English handicaps offering prizemoney about 200-times less than the Melbourne Cup.

He surely can’t figure here?

My 2013 Melbourne Cup top tips

I don’t think Flemington has ever played host to a stronger Melbourne Cup than this year’s running. It wasn’t long ago that a good Melbourne Cup had ten winning chances, if that. In 2013, you could make a good case for at least 18 horses.

1. Simenon
2. Sea Moon
3. Dandino
4. Fiorente

Next best: Dear Demi and Voleuse De Coeurs
Best long-shots: Super Cool and Red Cadeaux

[roargal]