It has been some time since my last article, but after the weekend’s action and post-match drivel out of Europe, I felt somewhat compelled to have my say.
When New Zealand beat the Springboks in JHB last month, they confirmed their status as the Kings of Rugby in 2013.
While not having met any European opposition other than France that is perhaps a bold statement to make but it was rather obvious to all that the only serious contender was the team they had just beaten.
Under Heyneke Meyer South Africa have made a significant improvement to their game.
They managed to maintain their physical status while adding an attacking flair last seen by Nick Mallets’ Boks such as Marius Joubert, Pieter ‘Slaptjips’ Rossouw and Breyton Paulse.
For South Africa to have closed a gap somewhat on New Zealand, who had improved even further since their last defeat to England in 2012, showed that Heyneke Meyer is a man with a plan.
But just how close are the Boks to the All Blacks?
Well, having seen the Boks dismantle Wales at a canter, I was led to the conclusion that the gap between New Zealand and SA, is closer than the gap between South Africa and Wales, who I would tip as the current #3 in the world.
This is based purely on the fact that South Africa forced the Kiwis to play their best in that epic Johannesburg Test, which many called the greatest Test in modern times.
It was like two old foes having slogged it out for 12 rounds before the better team finally landed that killer blow.
New Zealand played arguably their best game and I am of the opinion that this may be the best New Zealand I have seen since the days of Christian Cullen and Jeff Wilson.
Compared to the Welsh Test last weekend, I felt that while Wales were somewhat flattered by the scoreline.
They never seemed likely to cross the chalkline, neither did South Africa ever look in danger of losing.
Pre-match talk was that Wales were better prepared than ever to take that elusive southern hemisphere scalp, but what we got in the end was just more of the same.
South Africa cruising along in second gear, scoring two quick tries to secure a lead and then taking their foot off the gas, unlike SA versus NZ, they never really pushed us to see the best from South Africa.
Much the same in the All Blacks Test against France, I never felt that New Zealand were in danger of losing, and in the end neither did they having done ‘enough’ to win.
Wales can argue that a bad call, or a missed chance here and there cost them the win, but what would have ensued had they gotten somewhat closer?
Perhaps the Boks stepping into the next gear and scoring three more tries? We will never know.
As for England, I have seen little evidence to suggest that they are currently worthy of finishing within 20 points of New Zealand.
I predict sweet revenge for the Blacks, with England’s heaviest defeat at Twickenham at the hands of South Africa being 42-6 in 2008 in danger of being eclipsed.
My advice for teams like Wales would be to stop making excuses, stop patting yourself on the back because you could have, should have and in your own minds did win.
Only then will you realise that you are still 10-15% off the pace, and only then will you start to address the issues that keep you one level below the best.
New Zealand are the benchmark of rugby union, South Africa are the closest contender for the crown. And nobody else will come close this year.
Harry Jones
Expert
BenS: In 2013, SA has average scoreline of 35-16.5. NZ's is 33-16.7. SA has scored 4.18 tries per match; relied on 2.45 penalty goals per test. NZ has 3.7 tries per match; kicked 2.9 penalties per test. In the RC, SA had 10 more line breaks; over a 100 more metres run. In the Ellis Park epic, NZ kicked 15 more times. SA lost only to NZ; and one of the losses is going to be a classic (5-4 tries; NZ had to almost be perfect to win). NZ is better than SA, but I don't think SA is nearly as far behind NZ as you wish we were.
Bebop
Guest
Well, I guess we know a little better after today what the Poms are capable of... Although notwithstanding I am a Saf and therefore love to bask in the fact that we've had some really good refs, and Joubert is one definitely, the score flattered the Poms. There was lots of lazy running, offside defensive runners, and the odd obstruction that went unpenalised, while Craig was strict with the ABs. Not a bad thing, as refs often are a little more lenient with them (or they are better at creating hassle at the breakdown), BUT CJ had a poor game. And it favoured the Poms.
Bruce Rankin
Guest
Re Homer Gain's quote from the "delightful Zinzan Brooke's .... line this week in the British press ...." Sadly such predictions are folly.... Zinzan Brooke should know better... at least it wasn't made by the AB's themselves or the team management. It is the sort of thing opposition coaches love posting on the dressing room walls to fire up their own side. Reminds me of stupid Stu Wilson (former All Black winger turned commentator) who said in the Sydney Morning Herald on the day before the AB's v Wallabies RWC semi-final in 2003: "There is no way the All Blacks can lose this game!" Guess what happened? Stirling Mortlock scored his 14 point turnaround try from an intercept about 5 minutes after the start and it was game over for the All Blacks. Later prompting George Gregan's famous riposte towards the end of the game: "Four more years boys!!!!" You just don't make such provocative comments... they're grist to the opposition mill. Most coaches know to play down their own side's chances pre-game and praise the quality of the opposition. Personally I feel the AB's should win - despite Brooke's provocative prediction - however it'll be a much tougher contest as a result of his comments and another upset could be the outcome. We shall see in a few hours.
Martin
Guest
Hey there Homer. I personally enjoy the pre-match hype but Wales does not have the sustenance to talk big before a match. For example England, Australia, South Africa and France can banter about beating the ABs before a match as they actually have beaten NZ in the recent past. Wales has achieved diddly squat against the Southern Hemisphere teams which is why comments such as 'we will not celebrate when we beat the boks' were taken to be a tad arrogant. Out of the Northern Hemisphere teams, I believe that England is the best of the crop and I reckon they'll get close to beating NZ this weekend (but will ultimately fall short). France looks like they have some talented players. Wales is behind those two.
Homer Gain
Guest
Ok, its a fair cop on the Warburton comment ( a bit silly though not much more than you'd expect from a team Captain trying to gee his team up for the autumn internationals and, in the longr term, for the 2015 RWC). The second item is plainly a joke (they did something similar before the England game in the 6N last year) and the third is a Boer backlash, you can't blame the Welsh for that. The point remains though, for serious commentators and most of the players and coaches in the NH, the problem is not over-weening arrogance when faced by New Zealand and the Boers, rather its timorous defeatism. Not for us the delightful Zinzan Brooke whose line this week in the British press was "I expect a 4-Zip win for the ABs" (taking into account Saturdays game and the three match series next year) and "that's not obn my Christmas list, cos its just going to happen". Now that's smug.
Martin
Guest
Take your pick: Wales captain Sam Warburton expects to win the remaining three autumn Tests, and says beating Australia and South Africa is "what we should expect". http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/24892700 Oh, this was quite 'cute' by the Welsh before the match: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/15-south-african-springboks-cute-6281405 Which lead to this response: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/south-african-press-round-boastful-6291581
IvanN
Roar Guru
Correction - I will have it NZ,SA,Eng,Fra,Aus,Wal,Ire,Sco,Arg
Coconut
Guest
Coconut
Guest
I think Wals predicted scores are on the money.. The AB - Eng game is going to be tight, mainly because I think both teams will play a more conservative game. There is always the potential for the AB outside backs to cut loose, but I think it unlikely.
Lord Bledisloe
Guest
i used to play against crotty at schoolboy and then club level in Christchurch and believe it or not he played first five most of his younger days and shifted to second five a few years ago. so he is essentially a 12 who covers 13. remember Dan carter was a second five when he started playing for Canterbury back in the day. i think alot of 10's can make the transition to 12 more easily than 12 to 13.
Colin Kennedy
Roar Guru
Wales are always unlucky aren't they? Oh yes, sorry, they got lucky once about 14 years ago. Probably be another hundred years of bad luck until they get lucky again...
James the Elder
Guest
Forget the holiday. Let them have certain refs as tackling practice!
James the Elder
Guest
Jason 8 - '' rubbish flyhalf''. What are you on? Always best to take your medication as prescribed.
Wal
Roar Guru
Steven Hansen always used to be good for a controversial quote. He seems to have learnt it never got him any where and just came across badly.
Wal
Roar Guru
Alot of people said Conrad wasn't flashy or big enough to play centre early in his career too. Typical Canterbury centre does all the basics well, reminds me a lot of Warwick Taylor. Only NZ have changed their style and he suits 13 under the current structure.
richard
Guest
If Wales talk themselves up,that is probably Gatland trying to instil some self-belief in the side.Would be better to just shut up and do their talking on the field.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Springbok rugby: still hanging on to the coat tails of the All Blacks with all their might... Sad to see really.
JimmyB
Guest
Understood.
Homer Gain
Guest
Overall assessment is spot on. I'm an Englishman fan who would struggle to put together a convincing argument that England are on a par with Wales, let alone anywhere near the top two. And unless something truly earth-shattering happens on Saturday, that will not change even if England beat NZ and SA lose. This does not get away from the fact that your sound argument is based on wholly false and unecessary assertions about "arrogance" and presumptuousness by NH teams when taking on their SH counterparts. You claim the Welsh were talking themselves up before Saturday's game. Can you point to evidence of this?
IvanN
Roar Guru
Just keeping all your Predictions in 1 place to compare on Sunday IvanN NZ 36 - 12 Eng SA 28 - 18 Sco Aus 22 - 20 Ire Batdown NZ 29 Eng 13 SA 42 Scot 17 Aust 23 Ire 13 Martin Eng 17 – NZ 19 Scot 16 – SA 39 Ire 16 – Aus 15 Colin Kennedy All Blacks 33 England 10 South Africa 23 Scotland 12 Australia 28 Wales 19 Harry Jones NZ 31 Eng 13 SA 27 Scot 12 OZ 20 Ire 19 Wal AB’s 19 Eng 12 SA 35 Scot 9 Aust 18 Wales 22 Tigranes NZ 46 – Eng 6 SA 38 – Scotland 11 Aus 28 – Ireland 10 Colin and Wal - do you mean Aus vs Ireland ? Or predicting neeeeeext weekend already ?