Much is made about the magic of the FA Cup; the romanticism of how a lowly team from Chelmsford can go up against the might of Manchester United in a game people will talk about for years.
But this doesn’t happen in rugby, for two reasons.
For starters, lowly teams like Senegal (up to 41st in the world) never get to play any of the tier one nations. When I say never, I mean never.
Australia have only ever played 20 different countries in their history, which means teams as highly ranked as Georgia (16th) are unbeaten against the Wallabies.
The IRB would go a long way to developing the sport around the world with weakened provincial teams playing against some of the developing nations. But that’s a thought for another day.
The point of this article is to refer you to the fact that of the nations that do play each other, the standard is so similar that a team ranked seventh in the world can beat a team ranked third and no one would consider that a shock.
Aside from New Zealand, and maybe South Africa, teams from England in third all the way down to Wales in seventh can beat each other.
Each one of Wales, England, Ireland, Australia and France will feel that they are good enough to be named third best in the world, and that they are the best chance of beating South Africa and maybe upsetting New Zealand.
Which brings us to this weekend’s game – Ireland v Australia.
Ireland are ranked sixth in the world, to Australia’s fourth. Recent history between the teams is close, with two wins to each side in the last five games and a draw.
Australia haven’t beaten Ireland in Dublin since 2005, with Gordon D’Arcy, Rory Best, Tommy Bowe and Tatafu Polotau-Nau the only survivors from that contest with a chance of playing at the weekend.
The most recent game – a 15-6 win to Ireland in the Rugby World Cup 2011 – counted as an upset, but would a victory for Ireland this weekend also be treated as one?
I would argue it isn’t. Australia’s record in Dublin isn’t great, and their 2013 record is dreadful.
Ewen McKenzie has brought a bit of spark back into the Wallabies with 18 tries in their last four games, although if you take out the two seven-try drubbings, they’ve only scored 13 tries in their 10 other games in 2013.
Ireland’s record in 2013 isn’t great either, with a dismal Six Nations all the way back in February/ March ending Declan Kidney’s reign.
A lot of time has passed since then. The leaders among the Irish squad were in Australia, where Sean O’Brien, Paul O’Connell, Jonny Sexton, Conor Murray, Tommy Bowe, Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Heaslip all played a part in a victorious Lions Test series.
Meanwhile, Peter O’Mahony, Fergus McFadden, Ian Madigan, Paddy Jackson, Mike Ross, Devin Toner and Mike McCarthy played parts in Ireland’s tour of the US and Canada.
Joe Schmidt has brought a freshness to the squad, and there was an air of calmness as they went about their business against Samoa, with no hang-ups on form or worries about the pressures to win.
If the papers are to be believed, Ireland will target the Wallaby lineout and scrum, and the battle of the breakdown will be fierce.
For years Ireland haven’t had a “genuine open-side”, instead using the breakdown talents of Cian Healy, Rory Best, Paul O’Connell, Jamie Heaslip and Brian O’Driscoll. Michael Hooper will have a lot on his plate.
Australian media expects Ireland to use the ‘choke’ tackle that served them well in 2011 to go after the Wallabies in the scrum time and again. While this will no doubt be a tactic, I suspect that they will use another alternative style of tackling to get as many offloads as possible.
Ireland have been trying the chop tackle technique against Samoa; so much so that attentive listeners to the referee’s microphone on Saturday could hear shouts encouraging them to tackle low so the next man in could get over the ball quickly.
This helped to win 12 turnovers in open play, and a few other penalties for holding on.
Some Irish players will be making their first appearances against Australia – namely 6’10” Devin Toner or Mike McCarthy in the second row, Fergus McFadden the versatile winger who never stops working and Jack McGrath.
McGrath got man of the match in his debut last week. When he comes on for Cian Healy, Australia will be faced with a young prop who can scrummage well, is a powerful runner and effective breakdown worker.
There’s a case to be made to bring Luke Marshall into the 12 position over Gordon D’Arcy. If he plays, Australia will see a second five-eighth with a complete set of skills.
His upbringing from flyhalf has honed his distribution, playmaking and kicking skills, while his size makes him a solid defender and willing runner who makes great lines.
While Australia don’t have to worry about Stephen Ferris this week, they will have to face Peter O’Mahony, the current Munster captain.
A fiery character, O’Mahony was outstanding last week, leading the Irish charge in the opening half with some early turnovers, and uplifting carries.
He is a big game player who leads from the front, and if he keeps his emotions in check, Genia will have a similarly tough game to 2011.
The weather is set for cloudy with a good chance for rain, which sets up an intriguing Test match. While Ireland wouldn’t lose too much confidence with a loss, a win wouldn’t be classed as an upset.
Bring on the Aussies.
Puzzle Mcpuzzled
Guest
Haha wake me up! how many calls have you got wrong justie, those above and others on here, RE NC Still can't admit u got it wrong. Bit more than a toiler I think..
Canuckruck
Guest
@Tane Mahuta By the time Giteau left he was in no way dominant in any position on the pitch. His play was charactorized by endless crabbing across the pitch, eating up space for outside centre, wing, fullback, etc. Toomua is running, distributing and defending very well. Beale is awesome on his day, but very inconsistent. I think in Folau the Wallabies will have a more consistent linebreaker and try scorer, who isn't an incessant chip and chase experimenter. Folau is the best Wallaby under the high ball in my opinion. And in Kurindrani, given some time, perhaps the new Strirling Mortlock? I'll take the current Wallabies backline over just about anything dished up in the Deans era, where, they were rarely above an average of one try per game. Cooper is a new player under Ewan and this is making a huge difference. I think the Wallabies forwards will struggle. It will come down to Genia being able to salvage some quick ball, and Cooper being able to set his backline free.
Derm
Roar Guru
Messa: "Technically a fine article i don’t think its a shock horror that the 6 nations are competitive against the ABs’ and SA’s but generally a bit inferior, but are basically overall level pegging with Australia." Six Nations not really competitive with NZ at all. Appalling record, bar occasional wins by England and France. Against SA and Aus, it's a bit more varied - particularly for France and Ireland. Last five matches albeit over varying time periods: Ireland v SA W3 L2 Ireland v Aus W2 D1 L2 Fra v SA W3 L2 Fra v Aus W 1 L4 England v SA L4 D1 England v Aus W3 L2 Sco v SA W1 L4 Sco v Aus W2 L3 Wal v SA L5 Wal v Aus L5 Ita v SA L5 Ita v Aus L5
Westie
Guest
Cummins to the back row
Dublin Dave
Guest
Irish team to play Australia has just been named and the big surprise is the relegation of Conor Murray, the Lions scrumhalf from last summer's series, to the bench to make way for the veteran Eoghan Reddan. Elsewhere, Gordon D'Arcy has been dropped in favour of the up and coming Luke Marshall. Otherwise the Irish team is pretty much as expected with some returning front rankers who were rested/injured for the game against Samoa fitting in where expected. Full Back is Rob Kearney Three quarters: Bowe O'Driscoll Marshall McFadden Half backs (northern meaning) Sexton and Reddan Front Row: Healy Best Ross Second Row: O'Connell Toner Back row: O'Mahony O'Brien Heaslip Bench: Archer McGrath Cronin McCarthy McLaughlin Murray Madigan, Henshaw I reckon the bookies have got it right: they haven't got a clue who's going to win this. :) Hopefully it's a good game as well as a close one.
WaltSaffa
Guest
Wow that would be a fantastic game. I'd far rather watch that than the Barbarians versus Fiji.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Piatau was pretty critical to NZ beating France last weekend. Bowe has done it on the biggest stage. He's world class. When Bowe plays Ireland have a different sort of threat across the park in different areas.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Say the modern era is the WC era. When have Australias backs been worse than now post 87. Not often. It isnt a bad backline, probably a top 4 backline but Australias backlines are usually top 1 or 2. Theyve lost Beale, JOC, Ioane and Giteau in the last few years. Players thoughtto be amoungst the best there is in the sport at their peak. Cummins isnt, I question if Toomua is yet, Lealiifano isnt, Tomane isnt, Folau is getting there. Point is that their best players have either moved on or are out of form and those that have replaced them are not considered world class. Developing nicely but how will they respond when their forwards are going backwards and the pressure is applied by a quality backlne? I think theyll struggle.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
It all depends on what you call world class. I just think they are as good as anything Australia has got and Id rank Sexton in the top 3 international flyhalfs in the world. Murray is better than Genia or White on form and in the top bracket of internationals too. Its really a shame that people dont appreciate players from the northern hemisphere. Id love to see a NH vs SH game. NH- SH. 1) Corbisiero-Figallo 2) Hibbard-Biz 3) Jones-du Pessis 4) Gray-Etz 5) Parling-Whitelock 6) Lydiate-Lobbe 7) Dusautoir-McCaw 8) Parrise-Read 9) Murray-du Preez 10) Sexton-Carter 11) North-Savea 12) Fofana-de Villiers 13) Davies-C.Smith 14) Bowe-Habana 15) Halfpenny-Dagg Id back the south by 10+.
Chan Wee
Guest
@ Ball Handling Hooker : too true. world class players slot back into the system faster than the ordinary ones. that is why Jane was in the MIB after just 2 ITM matches. they are called world class , the best in a country (or world) for a reason.
Short-Blind
Guest
TM I don't know about 'one of the worst in the modern era'. Sure it is developing and has some players out of form (Genia) but they did put 3 tries on the AB and many more on some of the lower rated sides. I think there is plenty of upside in this back line but they still have a way to go and as always will only be as good as the ball that is served to them. The Irish looked pretty good last week and if their piggies dominant we will not win. If our piggies turn up we are in with a chance (unless it rains heavily). Fardy is essential as he and Hooper/Moore are the only Wallaby forwards who are showing any mongrel of late - and we will need lots of that to match this Irish pack. Too close to call for me.
Ball Handling Hooker
Roar Rookie
I've found in recent years that it doesn't take long for O'Driscoll and O'Connell to get back into their top form. O'Connell's massive performance against Harlequins in last year's Heineken Cup was his 2nd or 3rd appearance back after months out.
Nick
Guest
There's no way Sexton and Murray are world class. 6 nations class maybe
Tane Mahuta
Guest
People are talking about the Ausie backline as if its special. Imo its one of their worst in the modern era. Cummins, Kurindrani, Tomane, White and Lealiifano havnt been fantastic. Kurindrani is improving and the rest have shown glimpses but Im not sure this is a quality backline. Genia is out of form and as good as Folau is, he is still not experienced enough to make the right calls at times. Their defence hasnt been great either.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
Billy Slater gets in an argument at 3am and punches a guy and his team back him without question. JOC gets in an argument and the ARU sack him. If Slater had been outside burger King and missed the bus he would have done every "bad" thing JOC had done all in the one night. The ARU is foolish.
Tane Mahuta
Guest
To be fair Chivas, you are comparing chalk and cheese. Savea, Piatau, Jane and B.Smith are all world class. Ire doesnt have that depth. Neither does Eng, Wales or Scotland. Imo Ben.S. has a point in that the first choice 15 is much more important to these teams than it is for NZ or SA. I would say Ire will win with or without him but with Zebo and Bowe out it does impact these teams quite a bit sometimes. Wales is not the same team without Davies and Roberts. Those 2 are very important for Wales. They just dont have the depth to bring in another world class player in most instances.
carnivean
Roar Rookie
I can't imagine that anyone could have read that as anything other than a colourful way of saying that they haven't played each other. Bland recitations of facts are nowhere near as interesting as a column that uses words cleverly to portray those facts.
Adrian
Guest
if you dont play each other, you will be undefeated, right? how silly
carnivean
Roar Rookie
As the Wallabies are against Georgia. 0-0.
Hoy
Roar Guru
Wallabies forwards need to be very aggresssive and ever present, for us to win this one I feel. I am tired of hearing about ambushes and upsets against the Wallabies. The only ones who don't see the ambushes coming are the actual players and coaches apparently... To the rest of us, they aren't ambushes...