Regardless of the result in the last Test of this Ashes series Australia will sit third on the ICC Test Rankings jumping ahead of Pakistan and England.
If the Aussies can win the series against the no. 1 ranked South Africans they will overtake India and the no.1 spot will be in reach.
Some will say that I’m getting carried away as Australia only managed to win 5 out of 14 Tests in 2013, but I will argue that there were extenuating circumstances.
For one the selectors got it horribly wrong this past year. They made way too many changes before the Tests in England and continued to make changes throughout the series.
Nathan Lyon and Ryan Harris being left out of the first Test was a serious blunder. As was completely re-arranging the batting line-up for that Test.
Even so if you watched the series in England you saw Australia put themselves in a position to win four out of five matches but somehow couldn’t win any.
It was the closest 3-0 result you will ever see.
The Indian tour though was horrific.
It’s historically the tougher place for Australian teams to tour as the conditions are so foreign. It didn’t help that the selectors picked Glenn Maxwell and Xavier Doherty as the spin options for the tour and somehow couldn’t find a spot for Steven O’keefe.
The worst part though was that Michael Clarke and Shane Watson – the captain and vice-captain on that tour – weren’t even on speaking terms.
It was clearly an unhappy team environment.
But things are different under Darren Lehmann, the team has learned to enjoy cricket again and more importantly win games of cricket again.
Clearly I believe Australia is on the rise and on the flip side I think the three other nations vying for the number 1 spot have some real concerns going forward.
I’ll start with the team Australia has demolished this summer:
England
Can the Poms turn it around like the Aussies have done this series? It’s possible but they have some major problems to solve.
Firstly the batting line-up will need to be sorted out quickly. Do they persist with Joe Root or promote Ian Bell? The number three spot is crucial in any batting line-up and when Johnathan Trott departed it left a huge hole.
If Kevin Pietersen doesn’t regain his form England will be in real trouble as there doesn’t seem to be too many batters knocking on the door.
What do they do with the wicket keeping position? Surely Bairstow isn’t the answer as he doesn’t even keep for his county side.
I suspect Matt Prior will be re-instated sooner rather than later. I’m sure the England hierarchy are hoping that a spell on the sidelines can rejuvenate him.
Is Monty Panesar the answer in the spin department? I’m not so sure but the next option is Simon Kerrigan and he looked awful in his first Test.
The fast bowlers still make England dangerous at home but until they get the batting line-up right it will be a struggle facing the Aussies and South African’s especially away from home.
India
The Indian batting line-up is young and extremely talented. They did well in South Africa but the two pitches they played on were quite slow and didn’t offer much bounce.
Until they learn how to bat on the bouncier wickets they will continue to struggle away from home. We will know more about this batting line-up after they face the Kiwis in New Zealand on no doubt some very bouncy pitches.
The bowling still is a concern, the pace bowlers don’t offer much and their spinners struggle mightily away from home.
If India is serious about becoming the number 1 test nation they will need to start preparing bouncier pitches. And until they do the Indian batsmen will continue to get blown away by England, South Africa and especially Australia on foreign soil.
South Africa
The Proteas have clearly been the benchmark this past year.
We obviously know they are a dominant pace bowling unit but the spin option is a worry. Imran Tahir hasn’t looked up to test standard and Robin Petersen isn’t threatening.
And how do they replace Kallis? South Africa have needed his bowling as an insurance policy to back up for the poor performance of the spinners.
And what do they do at the number 4 spot? Will De Villiers move up while continuing to keep? Surely his batting will start to suffer with the extra workload.
Alviro Petersen has struggled as the opener as has J.P Duminy batting down the order.
Replacing Kallis is the real concern and I can’t help wondering that he retired before the Australia series because he was genuinely scared of facing this bowling attack, mainly Mitchell Johnson.
Maybe not physically scared but certainly he knew they would bombard him with short balls to test his reflexes at the age of 38. I don’t think he would have handle that very well.
Australia
The Aussies have some concerns themselves.
How long will Chris Rogers and Brad Haddin continue? Both are 36 years old and can’t go on forever.
George Bailey hasn’t made the number six spot his own and Shane Watson is always a concern to stay on the field as an all-rounder.
I’m sure the selectors would love to use Watson down the order but there is no number three knocking down the door in Australia.
Alex Doolan is next in line but he has a first class average south of 40. Is it likely he will improve on that and have a higher average in Test matches? I can’t think of too many Aussies batsman being able to do that.
There is some quality young batsmen coming through though and If Watson can just hold onto the number three spot a little longer it will put Australia in a great position to overtake South Africa.
For me its only a matter of time before world order is restored and Australia will be no.1 again.
ak
Roar Guru
Too optimistic. Stop dreaming that high.
Bearfax
Guest
I think this great old warrior Kallis could see the writing on the wall. His overall batting average is 55.37 and bowling average 32.65 per wicket in test cricket. Yet in his 8 tests in 2013 he was averaging only 25.75 with the bat and 34.9 with the ball. I think he could see that age was catching up with him and that he could be more of a liability than a match winner in future tests. I think he realised that for the benefit of the team it was time for someone else to take over his role. I doubt that it had anything to do with specific fears about specific bowlers other than to recognise that he could no longer offer his best against such opposition.
Tman
Guest
Kallis scared of Johnson haha. How many times has he faced Johnson? He's starting to become overrated #Period
Vikramsinh
Guest
1)Some will say that I’m getting carried away as Australia only managed to win 5 out of 14 Tests in 2013, but I will argue that there were extenuating circumstances. Yep you are . . .( 5 out of 14) how many in aus. . 2)Replacing Kallis is the real concern and I can’t help wondering that he retired before the Australia series because he was genuinely scared of facing this bowling attack, mainly Mitchell Johnson. (ha ha ha a joke!) To me its batter compare to pooooooonting and saaaachiiiiiiiin
Vikramsinh
Guest
1)Some will say that I’m getting carried away as Australia only managed to win 5 out of 14 Tests in 2013, but I will argue that there were extenuating circumstances. Yep you are . . .( 5 out of 14) how many in aus. .
Bearfax
Guest
And then in the wings are Pattinson and Starc, both express pace. No wonder Australia's stocks have gone up recentlyy
Glenn Innes
Guest
History ia a wonderful thing in cricket because unlike say the various football games the sport can be measured fairly accurately via simple statistics, A champion express pace bowler will take you a long way anywhere even India but in Australia they are pure gold.Most of Englands victories in Australia have come via express pace think Larwood ,Tyson ,Snow. Wiliis. This series has really been all about Mitchell Johnson I am too lazy in the current QLD heat and humidity to check the record books but I understand he is averaging about 14 with the ball this season unprecedented for the amount of wickets he has taken - he has completely destroyed England Being a left hander parlayed on top of his extreme pace, bounce and sudden relative accuracy have made him unstoppable. We can bag the English batting but in sport you are only as good as your opposition allows you to be. i have been watching Test Cricket for longer than I care to remember but Johnson this summer (given the protective equipment modern players have) has been as brutal as anything I have ever seen. With nothing but fast medium to return fire with in conditions where seam and swing are hard to find the poms (with hindsight) never stood a chamce - we have been watching something pretty special this summer.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
I think we will win against Pakistan but India is a different beast. The condition are so different over there And thats we why smash them every time they tour over here. Remember the great Steve Waugh side couldn't win over there.
Gav
Guest
Hmmm on the surface that's a fair call Tony, beating the no 1 team in their own backyard. But then again defeating Pakistan and more so India in their backyards is everybit as important.....the subcontinent is a bit like Everest in that way. If the selectors handle the transitions well, I'd recon in 3-5 yrs we could have a true champion Aussie side again
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
No doubt we have our issues, but like I tried to say in the article every team has major issues ATM. SA's batting is also vulnerable, if Amla and DeVilliers don't fire this series they will be in huge trouble.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Massive holes in the Australian team that England's poor performance and series score line have papered over. Top 6 not scoring consistently. Warner has batted well but as someone mentioned above jury is out whether he can maintain that overseas. Rogers is a good foil, pretty consistent but not long for the team. No natural number 3 - three natural number 6's in Bailey, Smith and Watson. Watson's century in Perth came after the game was pretty much wrapped up. Likewise the bulk of his runs in Melbourne. Certainly didn't fire a shot until the English were well and truly ground into the dirt. Are we going to throw a youngster to the wolves (like England did to Root) or is Clarke going to take the spot? Bailey is not a test batsmen. Smith scored a fine century but has looked all over the shop at other times. His dismissal in Adelaide off Panesar was one of the worst I've ever seen. He's done enough to nail down a spot for a while but definite concerns. Haddin bailed us out plenty of times but he's not going to be around forever. Much has been said about Johnson's improved mental state - but he's had it all his own way so far. He's the most exciting cricketer in the world to watch. I'll wait until he's bowling on flat tracks against batting line ups that aren't petrified before giving final judgement about his composure. Siddle is playing a good back up role but seems to lack penetration. Harris remains a test to test proposition. We're lucky that the quicks have been able to play all four tests so far as injuries have decimated our depth. This is an exciting time but I'm not high fiving about being number 1 just yet.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
The spinners are a real worry away from home also. Ashwin can only take wickets at home. Jadeja looked better though in the last test
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
If Australia beat South Africa in South Africa in my eyes we would be number 1
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
His Average is a lot lower away just like Glenn said.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
I agree very even and playing at home obviously will favour the Saffers, but I really think they will struggle to replace Kallis - Mainly because I can't see them playing a spinner without having a 4th pace bowling option as insurance. They might just pick 4 fast bowlers and use Duminy and De Plessis as the spinning options.
JGK
Roar Guru
Clarke isn't bad away from Aust.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
Yes the batting at this stage is the concern, but like you have mentioned there are some good young talent coming through and hopefully they continue to improve. Fast bowling wise though is the strongest since I've been watching cricket. Remember Johnson was 6th in line in the fast bowling department before this series. If and this is a big if - the young bowlers like Pattinson, Cummins and Starc can stay injury free Australia will be a dominant bowling unit. Also I'd love to see Mitch Marsh start scoring runs in Shield as he could be a destructive all-rounder
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
Glenn, I agree Australia needs to start winning away tests. And your right its the batters that need to improve away from home starting with Clarke
Timmuh
Roar Guru
I think you may be getting ahead of yourself a little. Just look at the top six: Warner - yet to fire a shot outside Australia; as soon as the ball swings, seams or spins, out, the ultimate flat track bully (maybe that will change) Rogers - dependable, but his time is almost up Watson - has been good since the Oval, but history suggests good form doesn't last long but slumps do, and his body is always questionable : simply not that good when in his normal form, but has occasional hot streaks Clarke - no problems here, and a few years left Smith - much better since his return, but not yet putting together regular scores of note, not yet secured as a long term Test player Bailey - this could be his only series with the likely replacements Hughes - no doubt on the talent, but surely has few chances left to actually secure a place (personally I still have great hope) Silk - seems to have the temperament for Test cricket, and at a young age; too early to know if that will translate into a long term career, even at state level Maddinson - a lot spoken about him, but really not yet ready and may never be Doolan - reliable at Shield level year after year, if never really dominating he has been among the top half dozen or so batsmen almost every year for a few years now: questionable how well that will translate into Test success Lynn - very good striker of the ball, playing actual cricket shots, still can be a little shaky but another one I have hope for Burns - last summer's failure may have cost him dearly Shaun Marsh - not much time left to actually put it together, looks a wasted talent Mitch Marsh - need to wait on this one There is so much uncertainty about the existing top six, and no surety among the likely replacements. Even if one grants that a lot of pace bowlers are coming through (and I'm not so sure that is true, IMO the lack of batting makes the bowlers look better than they really are) there is so much doubt about the top six in 2-3 years time (even six months time) that a return to number one is probably a less than 50-50 proposition.
jammel
Guest
Well, Australia are strengthening, and South Africa will be weakened - e.g. with the loss of Kallis. But Australia will lose Harris, Haddin and Rogers in the near future. So there will be some gaps to be filled in the Australian XI - I'd be pretty confident that we have the quicks and a good wicketkeeper to fill the gaps. What about in the batting though.... So I think in the next 12 months Australia will be able to challenge South Africa for the number 1 spot - England will be rebuilding, and India can't necessarily play all their matches on home soil. So I think there might be a chance for us. South Africa have a few "open" batting positions, and also need a decent spinner. Who'd be the combined Australia and SAF XI? Smith Warner Amla Clarke de Villiers du Plessis Watson Johnson Philander/Harris Steyn Lyon Very even....!