At the start of the AFL season the bookies put up short odds for the reigning premiers, and so it is this year, with Hawthorn favourites at all sportsbooks at the date of writing.
But since the beginning of salary cap and the era of equalisation, only two teams have won back to back premierships: Adelaide in 1997 and 1998 and Brisbane’s three straight from 2001-03.
Neither of these clubs finished any of these seasons on top of the ladder, which shows that a sustained period of dominance is even tougher than consecutive flags. And there have been some truly exceptional teams in the past 20 years.
In 2008, Geelong were excellent all year, only to be run over on grand final day by the young, enthusiastic Hawks.
At the start of 2001, it was impossible to imagine anyone other than Essendon taking the flag but by the final game injury, fatigue and the surging Brisbane Lions had caught up to them.
Carlton were hot favourites to go back-to-back in 1996 right up until late in the season, when age and injury took their toll and they slumped to fifth.
So it’s not always easy here in February to look all the way forward to September and predict how things will turn out.
But one thing we do know for sure is that history makes it hard for the reigning champion.
It’s not a series of coincidences. The rules are stacked against successful teams and there are challenges that affect the premier more than anyone else.
The premier has to get over a particularly long and gruelling season, with a shorter off-season than every other club except the runner-up.
They have to motivate themselves back to training after the euphoria of Grand Final day.
They have to battle every round against opponents who know all the strengths and weaknesses exposed by a long premiership season.
They have to replace any players that have retired or left due to salary cap constraints or lack of opportunities, generally with the late draft picks they’ve been afforded.
All of these factors will affect Hawthorn this year.
Salary cap pressures have pushed Lance Franklin to Sydney. Lack of opportunity has encouraged Shane Savage and Xavier Ellis to go elsewhere. Max Bailey and Brent Guerra have retired.
The Hawks have already lost Brendan Whitecross for most of the season. All in all their midfield depth looks a lot less impressive than it has in recent years, and it is about to be tested like never before.
They also have to deal with probably the toughest draw in the league, playing Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle, Sydney and the Gold Coast twice.
In the era of free agency teams can now look to new recruits to have an impact straight away. The big addition to the list is Ben McEvoy, but I’d be reluctant to say that he’ll make a huge difference.
McEvoy’s career so far has had more promise than delivery. He emerged in 2011 as St Kilda’s first ruckman and established himself as a prospect for the future, then injury cruelled his development and he hasn’t really progressed much further so far.
In 2013 he was beaten for hit outs most weeks, including against current Hawk David Hale.
The truth is that the ruck hasn’t been a genuine weakness for Hawthorn in the last couple of years. Hale has actually been excellent, nullifying the opposing ruckmen and making an impact around the ground.
McEvoy is a good ruckman, provides a more durable first choice option than Max Bailey, and frees up Clarkson to use his substitutions more tactically and give Hale more time in the forward line, but his presence won’t give the Hawthorn midfielders much more supply than they’re used to.
This isn’t to say that Hawthorn can’t defy history. They have a great team, with almost every part of the ground a strength and nowhere a real weakness.
They can look forward to Ryan Schoenmakers and Matthew Suckling returning from injury, and apart from Brendan Whitecross so far they’ve had a clean bill of health in the off-season.
But we shouldn’t downplay just how big a task they face to back up from a superb 2013 season. Back-to-back premierships in this age is an extraordinary achievement.
Penster
Guest
+1 Compare to Sydney - a gift of a draw for a top 4 finishing side. Now why would that be, Mr Demetriou?
Jason von Stieglitz
Roar Rookie
I agree with your point about the toughest draw. Having to play all of last years's preliminary finalists twice and playing not a single one of the "rebuilding" teams twice doesn't seem fair. I know there has to be a balance between the fairness of the draw and the blockbuster games that generate revenue, but after the horror draw that Hawthorn was given in 2013, it is a shame that there have been no favours again given to the Hawks in 2014.
Penster
Guest
HIs son.
TomC
Guest
Yeah, maybe similarly valuable, but different strengths. I reckon Suckling is most useful pushing up the ground, whereas Guerra is better defending and setting up from the back.
Mango Jack
Guest
Yeah, don't quite agree that Suckling is an instant replacement for Guerra. Guerra was one tough hombre.
Mango Jack
Guest
Is Will Langford related to Chris, Hawk legend of the 80s?
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
Equally, if Lake went down we would be back to Gibbo/Shoey on the comps good power forwards.........
Axle an the guru
Guest
Yer ur right simoc i think it really carnt get a fair judgement unless every team meats twice i think add a couple more teams an make it two divisions of 12 clubs each everyone plays each other twice have a final five in each division an operate it similar to the English Premier League -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Brian
Guest
U think its fair to say we're reliant on a big year from roughead. Otherwuse wiukd be Hale and Gunston which would terrify no one
Simoc
Guest
Since every second game has pretty much always been a home game for the Dockers I don't know where your stats are coming from . Last year there was an irregularity of 1 because of an event. So look at the draw closely and note that it has always been very similar. In case you're not aware the West Coast operate at the same ground and the ground is used every week.
Australian Rules
Guest
Yeah that's why I had Goo in brackets, with Suckling an obvious replacement.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
Suckling did not play in the Flag, after he did his knee. And I think he will not resume there after the injury, for the defence covered his skill, but was improved by greater toughness in his absence. Suckling is a brilliant player, but excels in space, and in the big games is found out in defence for there is no space I would like to see Lake take the key tall match up, and then Shoey take the 2nd tall forward. Which would free Gibbo to play the Hodge role, and allow Hodge to go forward
Axle an the guru
Guest
I havent seen the draw but if Fremantle have heap of home games in the second half of the season again like last year when it was made for them then im sure they will do fine again -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Australian Rules
Guest
Shoenmakers was actually recruited as a KPF, but because of Buddy and Roughy, had to be re-programmed as a defender. I think the Hawks have a minor problem of fitting Schoey into the premiership backline of: Stratton, Lake, (Guerra) Suckling; Burgoyne, Gibson, Birchall.
Slane
Guest
Fair enough! I think Guerra was a gun and Suckling/Guerra together was an exciting prospect. Hope Suckling comes back full of steam after his injury.
Steve J
Roar Guru
A hawks fan I spoke to isn't concerned about losing Franklin, Bailey, Savage or Ellis. He stated the biggest loss will be Guerra. The Hawks will be top four again, do they have the desire to get another flag? Hopefully Freo will have a bit more to get their first.
Australian Rules
Guest
Of those names you mentioned: Guerra has an instant replacement in Suckling. Whitecross could be replaced by anyone. As for the other 2, Ellis and Savage played a combined 17 games in 2013 - Simpkin and Duryea played 18 each. I think the Hawks have replenished with better, younger players.
Tim
Guest
As a Hawks fans, i am more worried about our key position depth, than our midfield. If Lake or Roughy were to get injured, who is there? Fans will say Shoey, but he is coming off a knee, and is more suited as a 2nd backman on talls....then who else? Only promising youth like Grimley, Hetherley and Obrien.....
Slane
Guest
The hawks have MORE depth after losing Xavier Ellis, Shane Savage, Brent Guerra and Brandon Whitecross? It doesn't matter how promising their kids are, that is a hell of a lot of depth to lose in one off-season.
Andrew A
Guest
Your comments about McEvoy make sense. He's a solid ruckman but definitely not a dominant one at the moment. I can't see him improving Hawthorn's clearance rate. He's likely to take the bulk of the battering at centre bounces to relieve the likes of Hale and Roughead to do some damage up forward.