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At the start of the AFL season the bookies put up short odds for the reigning premiers, and so it is this year, with Hawthorn favourites at all sportsbooks at the date of writing.
But since the beginning of salary cap and the era of equalisation, only two teams have won back to back premierships: Adelaide in 1997 and 1998 and Brisbane’s three straight from 2001-03.
Neither of these clubs finished any of these seasons on top of the ladder, which shows that a sustained period of dominance is even tougher than consecutive flags. And there have been some truly exceptional teams in the past 20 years.
In 2008, Geelong were excellent all year, only to be run over on grand final day by the young, enthusiastic Hawks.
At the start of 2001, it was impossible to imagine anyone other than Essendon taking the flag but by the final game injury, fatigue and the surging Brisbane Lions had caught up to them.
Carlton were hot favourites to go back-to-back in 1996 right up until late in the season, when age and injury took their toll and they slumped to fifth.
So it’s not always easy here in February to look all the way forward to September and predict how things will turn out.
But one thing we do know for sure is that history makes it hard for the reigning champion.
It’s not a series of coincidences. The rules are stacked against successful teams and there are challenges that affect the premier more than anyone else.
The premier has to get over a particularly long and gruelling season, with a shorter off-season than every other club except the runner-up.
They have to motivate themselves back to training after the euphoria of Grand Final day.
They have to battle every round against opponents who know all the strengths and weaknesses exposed by a long premiership season.
They have to replace any players that have retired or left due to salary cap constraints or lack of opportunities, generally with the late draft picks they’ve been afforded.
All of these factors will affect Hawthorn this year.
Salary cap pressures have pushed Lance Franklin to Sydney. Lack of opportunity has encouraged Shane Savage and Xavier Ellis to go elsewhere. Max Bailey and Brent Guerra have retired.
The Hawks have already lost Brendan Whitecross for most of the season. All in all their midfield depth looks a lot less impressive than it has in recent years, and it is about to be tested like never before.
They also have to deal with probably the toughest draw in the league, playing Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle, Sydney and the Gold Coast twice.
In the era of free agency teams can now look to new recruits to have an impact straight away. The big addition to the list is Ben McEvoy, but I’d be reluctant to say that he’ll make a huge difference.
McEvoy’s career so far has had more promise than delivery. He emerged in 2011 as St Kilda’s first ruckman and established himself as a prospect for the future, then injury cruelled his development and he hasn’t really progressed much further so far.
In 2013 he was beaten for hit outs most weeks, including against current Hawk David Hale.
The truth is that the ruck hasn’t been a genuine weakness for Hawthorn in the last couple of years. Hale has actually been excellent, nullifying the opposing ruckmen and making an impact around the ground.
McEvoy is a good ruckman, provides a more durable first choice option than Max Bailey, and frees up Clarkson to use his substitutions more tactically and give Hale more time in the forward line, but his presence won’t give the Hawthorn midfielders much more supply than they’re used to.
This isn’t to say that Hawthorn can’t defy history. They have a great team, with almost every part of the ground a strength and nowhere a real weakness.
They can look forward to Ryan Schoenmakers and Matthew Suckling returning from injury, and apart from Brendan Whitecross so far they’ve had a clean bill of health in the off-season.
But we shouldn’t downplay just how big a task they face to back up from a superb 2013 season. Back-to-back premierships in this age is an extraordinary achievement.
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