Australia must resist the urge to field an all-pace attack in the Tests in South Africa, regardless of expected green, seaming pitches.
Off spinner Nathan Lyon offers Australia it’s only advantage over the world’s best Test team.
His opposite number Robin Peterson is a handy all-round cricketer, but his left arm finger spin is modest.
Since the start of last year, Peterson has earned just 15 wickets at an average of 41 in seven Tests.
Lyon, meanwhile, snared 27 wickets at 28 in his past seven Tests while showcasing increased assuredness, accuracy and guile.
The 26-year-old has blossomed into a world-class tweaker.
As he demonstrated towards the end of the Test series in India last year and then over consecutive Ashes contests, Lyon has developed an ability to both tie up one end and make important breakthroughs.
In an insightful piece for the Sydney Morning Herald last month, sports journalist Malcolm Knox through statistical analysis revealed an unacknowledged impact Lyon had had during Australia’s 5-0 Ashes triumph.
Knox’s number crunching found that Lyon had been bowling at the opposite end 36 times when an English wicket fell during the Ashes.
That was triple the number of Peter Siddle – who 12 times was operating when another Aussie bowler made a breakthrough – and far exceeded the returns of stars Ryan Harris (19 times) and Mitchell Johnson (23).
This was a hugely significant revelation unearthed by Knox’s analysis.
It underlined what an intrinsic component Lyon had been in the Australian machine which dismantled the Poms.
The spinner’s value has spiked even further as a result of the injury-forced absence of all-rounder Shane Watson for the first Test against the Proteas, and perhaps even the entire series.
Watson may not have taken many wickets during the back-to-back Ashes.
However, his accuracy and reliability ensured that whenever he was called upon by skipper Michael Clarke he built pressure which aided the frontline bowlers.
It is this role which Lyon can fill with aplomb in South Africa.
Clarke skilfully manipulated his quicks during Australia’s stunning rout of England, utilising them in short bursts which heightened their potency and often prevented the English batsmen from settling.
He will almost certainly seek to employ a similar method against the Proteas, particularly at Centurion this week and in the third Test at Newlands.
The pitches at those grounds will offer generous assistance to the fast men.
It is at these venues where Australia will likely consider the option of omitting Lyon in favour of fielding four frontline pacemen.
Young firebrand James Pattinson and swing merchant Jackon Bird would be the players in competition to complement Australia’s veteran pace trio of Siddle, Harris and Johnson.
Were either bowler at their peak then it would make far more sense to include them at the expense of Lyon.
But Pattinson and Bird are both fresh from long layoffs prompted by stress fractures of the back.
Neither has played a first-class match in more than six months.
At his best, Pattinson is an irresistible force with the red ball in hand.
But a handful of limited overs contests, in which he has looked down on pace and searching for rhythm, are not sufficient evidence he deserves to usurp Lyon.
Bird is a canny operator who is well suited to South African conditions.
However, he too is undercooked having taken part in only eight limited overs contests since returning to the game.
Australia must place faith in Siddle, Harris and Johnson to wreak enough havoc in the helpful conditions.
They must also back in Lyon to bowl long, economical spells while that trio attack from the opposite end.
A fourth quick is surplus to requirements.
Armchair expert
Guest
My point was neither Bird or Pattinson have played a first class game for over 6 months, the selectors would be guessing on whether they're fit to play test cricket, very dangerous, especially in such an important series.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Oh damn. They bloody well are too. Although who will be remembered better will be reversed...rightly or wrongly.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Yes.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Indeed. HE is potent on fast bowling wickets. I don't believe he has experienced true spin friendly wickets, that will be interesting when he does. That stat during the Ashes is a revelation as well.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Plus, it can be overcast on that first day, and you bat first, and then the clouds clear and you have bright sunshine for the rest of the test. Picking a team based on cloud cover at the time of the toss is pretty risky. But either way Lyon should still play.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I must admit to that. The lack of a real quality spinner for South Africa would probably mean that Hughes coming in at #6 wouldn't hurt him so much. But overall I still think he's really someone where he probably needs to be an opener or nothing. He could probably work at #3, but really he should be opening.
Seriously
Guest
Would love to have a player like Damien Martyn batting at 4 or 5 right now.
fredstone
Guest
Centurion is the spiritual home of fast bowling, it takes no turn, the mornings are usually already humid by 10 and it builds till the late afternoon thundershowers usually brings some relief. Added to this is the height above see level which means the ball travels just a little faster. The biggest thing though is the bounce. In a domestic 4 day competition a couple of seasons ago Morkel took something ridiculous like 6 for 3, and that was against guys like Smith and Kallis. So, Mitch might be mean and the rest of them might swing or nibble it this or that way, but my money's on Morne at his home field making blokes duck, dive and jump around like their lives depend on it.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Waqar and Wasim were incredible and the left-right variation made them even more potent. Steyn and Philander are neck and neck with them. But McGrath and Warne reign supreme.
Deccas
Guest
I reckon lions would leave a weird looking animal like that well alone.
Nudge
Guest
Apparently Shaun Marsh fielded first slip at training today
Deccas
Guest
grimmet and o'reilly would be a contenders, waqar and wasim would have to be right up there too. Philander and steyn will probably be worthy of consideration if they can keep this up for another few years.
felix
Guest
Well if survival involved beating up lions you could be right but a punch or kick from a roo to a lion is like a mear tickle,on the sprint a springbok is 85km/h + which is what is required to outsprint a hungry lion ;-) haha.
Tom Dibble
Roar Rookie
If the selectors do pick Lyon instead of going with a five-man pace attack, I think it will be partly because the pitch supposed to be quite lively. This means that it's unlikely that the game will last five days. If it only lasts four, the fast bowlers shouldn't have to bowl a huge amount. If Lyon plays, they'll almost certainly have to play Henriques as a fourth quick (not that I rate him as being anywhere near a Test bowler), so the four of them should be able to share the workload. Lyon will have to bowl well, though, as the author to this piece suggests.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I wouldn't expect either the first nor the last Test to go beyond 4 days which will lighten their workload.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Roos can hop at more than 60kmh so catching them would not be easy for any predator.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Jadeja doesn't flight the ball, doesn't get it to drift, doesn't get it to drop and doesn't get it to turn. But apart from that he is a great spinner.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Who were clearly the best Test bowling combination in history in my opinion.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
My view is that Doolan is the guy the selectors decided to look at this series as a potential long term number 3 so he deserves to get the opportunity to bat there. Hughes is only even in contention to play because of injuries to two guys picked ahead of him for this tour so he shouldn't be leapfrogging Doolan suddenly.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I would loved to have seen the veteran trio of quicks partner with an on-song Pattinson on a pitch as lively as Centurion looks set to be. Hopefully we may see that happen before the year is out but for the moment Patto is well short of his best.