Imagine a race this season that included the likes of It’s A Dundeel, Pierro, All Too Hard, Rebel Dane, Epaulette, Sacred Falls, Your Song, Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool. All of them are fit, in training and primed to win.
Between them there are ten victories at Group 1 weight-for-age, two Derbies, three Guineas, two Triple Crowns, a Doncaster quinella and an incredible wealth of talent.
Collectively they form one of the greatest three-year-old groups ever produced in Australia. They are the class of 2012/2013.
Now for some details of this race.
The distance? 1600m. Weight scale? Weight-for-age. Qualifying conditions? Four-year-olds. Prizemoney? At least a couple of million dollars. The track? Anywhere clever enough to make this idea reality.
Australian racing needs a four-year-old mile championship; if only because it might mean the likes of Pierro, All Too Hard, Epaulette and Your Song are still in training today, instead of enjoying careers at stud at the tender age of four.
My four-year-old mile championship idea has a purpose similar to that of the Duke of Cambridge Stakes (formerly Windsor Forest Stakes) which is run over a mile at Group 2 level on the second day of Royal Ascot each year.
The Duke of Cambridge is restricted to mares of four years and older, and was put on the English racing calendar at the beginning of the European flat season in June, to encourage owners and breeders to race their three-year-old fillies at four years of age.
Obviously there was a concern too many fillies were being sent to stud at three in England, thereby destroying the depth and quality of mares that race in England.
In Australia, we are faced with a similar prospect. A pattern is emerging that sees some or, in the case of last season, most of our exciting three-year-olds whisked away to stud before we see them physically mature into adult horses.
Last year, three-year-olds All Too Hard and Pierro were the stars of the autumn carnival. Between them they claimed five Group 1 races at weight-for-age and were retired before the end of April.
In the case of All Too Hard, I’m certain he was retired before he even peaked on the racetrack.
And as a racing fan, his premature retirement was incredibly disappointing.
This autumn, the most exciting horse in the country, the three-year-old Zoustar, will run his last race at Royal Ascot in June.
Of course, that was same plan for All Too Hard last year but it was abandoned because the travel was too risky for a colt that was incredibly impressive in an undefeated autumn campaign. All Too Hard was retired a few months earlier than anticipated.
If Zoustar dominates like I think he could this autumn, having to say goodbye in a few months’ time is going to be incredibly difficult.
It’s hard because you realise you’ll never see a great horse race again. And it hurts because these three-year-old retirements leave our weight-for-age stocks incredibly weak.
Young retirements open up the Group 1 calendar to be dominated by the following season’s batch of top-class three-year-olds, who get the advantage of weight concessions at weight-for-age (the most prestigious weight scale mind you) simply because of their physical immaturity.
And a cycle develops. Because the top three-year-olds of the previous season, mostly all weight-for-age winners, were retired early, the next crop of three-year-olds also find it relatively easy to win at weight-for-age.
And when they claim weight-for-age victories, they set themselves up for the sorts of careers at stud the previous crop currently enjoy.
Imagine if five of the best ten 21-year-old footballers were retired at the end of each year. Eventually it would have an impact on the depth of active top footballers. And that’s the problem with Australian racing right now.
And I tell you what it would do? It would increase the amount of 21-year-old Brownlow and Dally M winners.
There is hardly any depth at racing’s elite level today. Ridiculously, whatever depth there is comes via the three-year-olds. You know, the group of 21-year-old footballers, half of whom will soon be gone.
It’s fantastic for owners of top-class three-year-olds who get a massive payday from multi-million-dollar stud deals. It’s fantastic for Australian breeders who can charge bigger service fees than ever before. And it’s fantastic for Australian racing when those top class three-year-olds produce champions.
Redoute’s Choice and Fastnet Rock weren’t raced much after three and have gone on to legendary stud careers.
But what good is a champion, or possible champion like All Too Hard, if he is retired before we see him reach his peak? All Too Hard was a fantastic horse, but he is just one in the cycle.
It’s a cycle about service fees ahead of Group 1 wins and champion performances. Racing can be so much more. Great racing, the best racing, is exhibited by horses older than three, in races with depth.
Great racing allows for narratives to develop over the course of several seasons and rivalries between horses to exist for years. Great racing is the same horse running four placings in the Melbourne Cup without ever winning.
Great racing happens when a great horse suffers an injury and comes back to win an important race. Great racing happens when a horse wins the same race three times, four times, or heck, even five times.
Right now, we don’t see great racing as much we used to.
Who are the best Australian horses over the age of three right now? It’s A Dundeel, Happy Trails, Fiorente and Buffering. They’re all good horses.
But they all have their limitations. I wouldn’t have confidence in any of them winning Group 1s in Europe or Asia at their favourite distance. They could do it, but they won’t start favourite.
Our sprinting stocks are lean. Our middle-distance stocks are lean. Our staying stocks are made up almost entirely of European imports. If it wasn’t for three-year-olds like Shamus Award, where would our racing be?
It’s not going to fix every problem, it may not even fix more than one or two issues, but a rich four-year-old mile Group 1, especially if it was held at the start of the breeding season in spring, could entice a few stud-bound three-year-olds to race on for another year.
Put yourself in the shoes of the stud that just bought the hottest three-year-old in Australia. Presumably that hot three-year-old is a sprinter-miler.
When that stud looks to the new season, specifically to spring, what do they currently see? A couple of mile handicaps, a couple of 1200m weight-for-age Group 1s, a couple of rich staying handicaps and the Cox Plate.
There is no race on the calendar in the spring that makes a four-year-old campaign enticing for an outstanding sprinter-miler.
But what if there was a $3m four-year-old mile championship race in October? It is placed in the middle of spring, a month or so before the VRC Sprint Classic at Flemington and a few weeks before the Cox Plate.
It gives a trainer the option to run in the four-year-old championship and the VRC Sprint Classic if they are a sprinting three-year-old like Zoustar. Or, the four-year-old championship and Cox Plate if they are better suited at a middle-distance like All Too Hard.
If there was a four-year-old mile championship option, All Too Hard and Pierro might still be in work today.
And the best part is, once a horse starts training at the beginning of a season, they can’t be shipped off to stud until the end of that season. A four-year-old trained for the spring should be back in the autumn.
Hopefully, there’s a racing club out there with some vision, ready to invest some money and change Australian racing. It’s happened before. The Golden Slipper was introduced as a rich two-year-old race and it changed the focus of Australian racing – from staying to sprinting – forever.
It’s time for a four-year-old championship.
casper
Guest
OMG Alfred, you'll have Joe Hockey & Tony Abbott on your case for planning to stifle free market forces. what sacrilage!!! Let the stud fees stand or fall on the stallion's progeny. Most of their purchase price is recouped in the first 3 years before anyone knows if their progeny are any good so it's like everything else in the industry, a gamble. The idea of a 4yo championship sits well with what they do in harness racing but easier said than done - you'd have to ban geldings so it doesn't lose the intent behind the concept. Why not make it a 1400-1500 lead in to the epsom or doncaster & worth a bit of money. As for the 21 year old footy players, not sure if they'd want the outcomes expected of high priced retired to stud 3yo racehorses, they'd probably prefer to be firing blanks & not have 60-80 of their kids running around each year
Bondy
Guest
Never in the history of Australian racing are stud farms, breeders and owners so parasitic as they are now. I've never witnessed such driven ambition for greed from owners and breeders and it will probably get worse. Racing is for the punter not rich weirdos from Bellevue Hill with breeding charts.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Hi Andrew, Norzita definitely should have been mentioned in the first par. My bad. Yeah I think the Feehan could be a good race for it. The MVRC has been left behind a bit lately with the moves the ATC and MRC have made in the last 6 months. Hosting a 4yo championship would be a great idea for the MVRC. I can't be sure whether the 4yo championship would actually work, but it has to be worth a try.
andrew
Guest
firstly, norzita should be included in that gun list of 3yo. she was poorly hcp for a filly in the Doncaster and ran 3rd, and has won 2 x G1's. she will be back on track as a 5yo though atleast, im am informed. Justin - its a great idea and concept. the perfect race for this would be to convert the data tan chin (or feehan stks as I call it). its the perfect timing in the carnival, as you mention can be fork in the road time for a 4yo to see if it will run the longer distances or come back in trip for the sprints and still have 5 weeks to prepare. further, the older horses do not suffer, there is the 1600m craiglee the week before and the 1800m underwood the weak after, so its not like the older horses are getting left out - programming wise. its early enough in the spring too, to start getting some media headlines, and being 2nd week of AFL finals, there is only 2 matches, and they are night games anyway. as for whether it gets up, or is attractive to breeders, or financially viable, that is another matter for the bean counters and marketers to work out, but the feehan is the race to convert, if it were to occur, and I am pretty certain on that view.
Richard Hosnell
Guest
This definitely has some merit Justin. The industry needs to be doing more to keep our superstars on the track for longer. Similar steps have been taken in other sporting codes to keep their stars playing sport in Australia. The revamp of the Sydney Autumn Carnival was a huge step in the right direction but there is still a long way to go....
Justin Cinque
Expert
That's a pretty good idea Matthew - restricting all spring WFA Group 1s to 4yo+. The only race that will really suffer is the Cox Plate - and it would suffer immensely in my opinion. But if you made the Cox Plate a 4yo+ race and then also introduced a 4yo Championship, that would go a long way to resolving the issue of 3yo retirements. I can't see it happening - though that doesn't mean it's not worth consideration. I agree with what you say about injury. But I look at it differently. In the past, depth hid horses misses through injury. The early retirements only make the industry feel or notice the injuries more now. That's how I look at it anyway.
Matthew
Guest
Justin, As you used the UK as an example, could we go a step further and change the whole fabric of Australian spring racing and make all the Spring WFA championship races only open to 4yos+ I am pretty sure you will find, prior to Royal Ascot, no group 1 races are open to 3yos in the UK or Ireland and probably France. Royal Ascot, run in June, is equivalent to racing in Australia in January. Apart from that thought I can not come up with anything that would entice an owner of a valuable colt to keep them in training at 4 when the earning potential at stud is so much greater than on the racecourse. At the end of the day though injury and a falling away of form is just as big an issue as colts retiring to stud. If Fiveandahalfstar had stayed sound and Super Cool improved from 3 to 4 we would probably not miss All Too Hard and Pierro as much as we have.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Yep sounds good. I like the bonus idea too.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great article Justin, and I love the passion flowing through. Since we're dreaming, I'd even take it a step further for the four year olds. Hold one of your races in the Melbourne Spring (run on Turnbull Stakes day maybe) and one in the Sydney Autumn (it could take over the George Ryder for instance), make them worth $2M each, plus degrees of bonuses for any Group 1 winner that wins both, places in both, or even runs in both.
Justin Cinque
Expert
- In my opinion it took the Golden Slipper 25 years to change Australian racing’s focus from staying to sprinting. - And another 25 years before we began to see healthy 3yos retired.
Justin Cinque
Expert
I like it Sheek. Looks great to me. But the top two lines of your program will not be the races you intend them to be unless the premature retirements end. Our racing is going down a very interesting path.
Justin Cinque
Expert
One line that describes top-level Australian racing in the 21st century: "It’s like planting your own money tree" Of course, not everyone's money tree will grow. Very few in fact. But essentially, that's it isn't it. You go to the sales to buy a Lonhro colt or a Casino Prince colt that you intend to race. If they turn out to be a good money tree like All Too Hard and Pierro were, they have a very specific program mapped out (in order to get the biggest stud deal) and they are quickly retired. I agree with your second last paragraph. The people who made Australian racing great, I'm sure, did not intend to turn it into what we have now. I assume they fought to make Australian racing great because they wanted to enjoy great racing. Perhaps they also enjoyed the science of breeding too, but I don't think they intended to have racing occur for breeding purposes. Their intention, I assume, was breeding for racing purposes.
Justin Cinque
Expert
It's a good point. On your first paragraph Tristan, we won't know probably for another five or ten years. The early retirements have just started. This is a new phase. If it got to saturation point and service fees came down, I'd say the process to get horses to race on for a bit longer will take decades. Racing is an evolving sport but it doesn't evolve quickly. In my opinion it took the Golden Slipper 25 years to change Australian racing's focus from staying to sprinting. We won't know the full effects of the early retirements to stud for a long time. Except, saturation is possible. I don't think our stallions have the reach of a European stallion, simply because we are one breeding industry. And Europe, I assume, has many. In Europe, early retirements work for the breeding industry. But will the early retirements work here? It is interesting times.
sheek
Roar Guru
Tell me why each/most carnival(s) can't be based on the following keynote races (apart from the self-interest of breeders, owners & gambling houses). Open (4y plus) WFA: 1200m, 1600m, 2000m, 2400m. Open Hcp: 1000/1200m, 1400/1600, 2000m, 2400/2600m, 3200m. 3yo Classics: 1200m, 1600m (two Gns), 2000m, 2400m (Derby/Oaks), 2800m (St. Leger). 2yo Clasics: 1000m, 1200m, 1400m, 1600m. Mares & Fillies: 1200m, 1600m, 2000m. It's seems there is a long-term push in some parts of the racing industry to remove any race beyond 2000m & any horse racing beyond four. it's a sure fire to ensure that racing becomes dull, boring & lifeless.
Drew H
Guest
Perhaps a distinction would be needed. ie. is a horse being saved, or is a horse pulling out, or is a horse just not performing. I'm not convinced that BM helps anything either. I think that accruing points against a horse is better than an 'up & down' BM system. ie. like point against an an AFL team on the ladder. Prizemoney could then be less significant than a points system like: country racing gets 4pts, 2 pts, 1 pt for 1st, 2nd, 3rd; prov racing get 8pts, 4pts, 2pts respectively; and city races get 20pts, 10pts, 5pts also. If it worked on accrued points then grading of a race would need to be variable based on the spread of points over the ladder. (then points could be analyzed for each year of a horse's career. ie 2yo points, 3yo point etc) More metrics then exist to form 4yo races.
sheek
Roar Guru
Great discussion guys, Some of it beyond my limited grasp of how studs work (apart from charging exorbitant fees which are passed on to owners & other parts of racing industry). Also great idea Justin having a four year old championship. But seriously, who cares? There's an element that wants to make the Golden Slipper the premier race in the country, so that a horse can earn bragging rights for winning the GS, then be whisked off to stud whereby connections can charge exorbitant fees on the basis this horse is a GS winner. It's like planting your own money tree. I know I'm being cynical. I'm just over the greed that exists in all sports today. Make that society in general. It's always been there, of course. But the people who made Australian racing great - Governor Lachlan Macquarie, Captain Standish, Admiral Rous, LKS Mackinnon, WS Cox, HE Tancred, George Adams, George Ryder, the Fisher brothers & many more whose names escape me for the moment, these people went beyond the idea of making a quick buck & set down structures that have endured for over 150 years. Structures being rapidly dismantled in the name of greed & making a quick buck now & who cares about tomorrow.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Let me preface this by noting that I don't know much about bloodstock/pedigree and how great horse studs and stables manipulate their stallion fees etc - but I wonder, Justin, how deep is the saturation around stallions? Surely, eventually, there will be too many stallions and competition will emerge to reduce fees enough that it might make sense to stay on the track? I'm presuming I'm wrong: Not every horse makes it at stud (Starspangledbanner), there's also attrition (Northern Meteor), poor results from progeny (plenty, no doubt)... but if every 12 months, 3-5 more colts turned stallions are put into the market, what does that do to the market, given they can live for 20 or so years as stallions? Complicated!
Drew H
Guest
My veiw Alfred is simple - Stallion licence would not override normal market forces. People will pay for stallion service fees for exactly what they think it is worth. Perhaps the revenue from another licence could be handy, but the licence would mainly strengthen those that have already won the biggest prize in racing - a stallion. Breeders should come from those that decided to own and race. If not, the secondhand sale price of a horse would be at meat value, not $1000 to $2000.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Not a bad idea. Does a horse qualify for credits by not meeting a certain rating benchmark. ie if a BM 69 horse is entered for the Australian Guineas but doesn't accept do they earn credit points because 'it is believed the horse could not win or place'. I don't mind it. But, I think we'll only be seeing stayers take up the option. So many horses bred in Australia are bred to peak at three.
Justin Cinque
Expert
That is a really interesting idea. But my goodness, it will have trouble getting off the ground. But I like the idea, anything to keep the good horses on the track longer is something I'm in favour of. Hey, by the way, 99% of horses would take the stud deal too, if they were offered it.