The AFL season starts in two days time, and the excitement is palpable across the nation. Yesterday I had a look at the sides I’m tipping to miss out on finals action, and today we get to those I think will be there at the pointy end of the season.
West Coast is an enigma wrapped in a riddle, only this one is surrounded by the mystery of a new coach appointment in Adam Simpson.
Group-think can sometimes take over the football landscape, and it was likely the case before 2013 when the Eagles were widely tipped to be either winning the premiership or at least playing off for it.
They did have a poor run with injury last year, and will be gaining from full seasons out of players that could be elite or close to it like Luke Shuey, Mark LeCras, Sharrod Wellingham, Shannon Hurn and Nic Naitanui.
Most galling for fans though, was how often they were torn apart at home, exposed by opponents’ leg speed and quick ball movement on the bigger ground.
The return of experienced heads will help control the ball when West Coast are in possession, but will they still be blitzed when they aren’t?
Richmond and North Melbourne represent the new wave of clubs looking to pose a top-four threat, while Collingwood and Geelong are the old guard.
The latter two have missed one finals series between them over the last eight years, while the Tigers and Roos have one finals win between them in that time.
Collingwood has the best group of three midfielders in the competition in Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Dayne Beams, as well as the most powerful forward in Travis Cloke.
Add in a handful of other All-Australians, some excellent role-players, astute recruiting and a batch of exciting youth, and it’s a recipe that should see the Pies remain around the mark.
The Magpie backline currently looks a little workmanlike and one-paced with the departure of Heath Shaw, turmoil surrounding Marley Williams and the forward-line defection of Ben Reid, so this will be an area opposition teams will look to expose.
Last year’s eighth might just be them bottoming out, but they may require another year at that level. 2015 and beyond is looking strong, but they should still be a major player in 2014.
Geelong just keeps on keeping on. People have long since stopped predicting they’ll slide, and instead marvel at a system that sees a production line of young talent seamlessly step into the breach when the next premiership hero is gracefully shown the exit.
The Cats’ depth will be tested like never before though, with the end-of-season exodus of several key players combined with injuries to a couple of their most important runners in Steven Motlop and Allen Christensen.
Much will be asked of veterans and the inexperienced alike, and doubtless, much will be delivered.
Scoring might be an issue for them. Motlop will start late and surely be required more in the midfield, so last year’s 44 should be beyond him. James Podsiadly takes his 33 to Adelaide, and Christensen was sixth in their goal-kicking with 23, and will be missing half the season.
Joel Selwood kicked 30, double his previous best season haul. Can he be relied upon to do so again?
Geelong don’t have the most difficult start to the season, so might be able to ease their way into the year.
The Tigers were one of last year’s bolters, catapulting from 12th on the ladder to fifth at the end of the regular season. This was achieved off the back of a fast, high-possession game that first disoriented the opposition, then cut a swathe through them.
Richmond’s main problem was applying their own brakes, rather than capitalising on their momentum. They would then cede control to the opposition, who often made them pay, most noticeably in the elimination-final humiliation at the hands of Carlton, turning a 32-point third-quarter lead into a 20-point loss.
The Tigers’ biggest asset is a deepening list of improving talent. You’d be lucky to find two or three players who definitively have their best football behind them. It’s a good position to be in for a side knocking on the door of a top-four position.
With a relatively easy draw on top of all of this, anything less than a sixth-placed finish must be seen as a fail at Tigerland.
I touched on North Melbourne’s virtues a few weeks ago on this site, but in a nutshell, they include a talented core reaching the perfect blend of age and experience, older guns still at their peak, a friendly draw, and a proven ability to match it with the competition’s best.
If Brad Scott can instil resilience enough for the Roos to overcome their propensity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, a top-four finish beckons.
And then there were three.
This is the prediction time of year, and no matter where you look at the moment, everyone seems to have settled on the same top three, the teams that have played in the last two grand finals, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney.
It’s an obvious conclusion to reach.
Hawthorn only lost three games last season, two to Geelong by a combined 17 points, plus their usual thumping at the hands of Richmond.
They were a cut above a large section of the competition and appear to have come back hungrier than ever, based on their demolitions throughout the NAB Challenge.
While they have lost Buddy Franklin, their forward line still has several prongs, all of which are serviced in abundant quantity and precise quality from a premiership midfield.
Fremantle are a popular flag tip, fitting the prevalent ‘have to lose one to win one’ mould of Hawthorn in 2013, Geelong in 2009 and West Coast in 2006.
Maniacal with their all-ground defence, and laden with hardened, experienced and big-bodied midfielders, they’ll win almost every game at home, and pick up their share on the road to ensure a top-four finish.
The similarities between Fremantle and St Kilda under Ross Lyon are eerie, although the Dockers are more advanced.
Half a season in the first year to bed down the coach’s game-plan, followed by a mid-table finish. The second year leaping into the top four, with Freo going a step further to a grand final.
The third season was when St Kilda went up several levels under Lyon, producing as dominant season as the likes of Essendon in 2000 and Geelong in 2007 or 2008.
There’s no reason to think Fremantle won’t do the same. Every player knows their role to the nth degree, and no slack will be given to any who fall short. If your every action isn’t committed one hundred per cent to the team, you won’t be in it.
Sydney has produced a premiership and top-four finish over the last two seasons, and now adds a full season from Kurt Tippett and the acquisition of Franklin.
They have six to eight genuine gun midfielders this season, all of whom hit the scoreboard heavily, a luxury no other team enjoys.
Mike Pyke, shouldering most of the responsibility, will confirm himself as part of the next tier of ruckmen below Aaron Sandilands as genuine match-shapers.
Their defence is both settled and versatile, with up to ten names that would look comfortable in the back six at any given point in time.
This year’s big three are awfully difficult to split, and it’s hard to imagine us not talking about any of them still being premiership threats in the last two weeks of the year.
My ladder
Sydney
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Richmond
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Geelong
West Coast
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Brisbane
Melbourne
Greater Western Sydney
St Kilda
Grand final
Fremantle to defeat Sydney
Brownlow Medal
Scott Pendlebury
Coleman Medal
Jarryd Roughead
Rising star
Brodie Grundy
kick to kick
Guest
As a Swans follower I worry what happens if Pyke goes down to a longish term injury.
Michael huston
Guest
I don't think Freos brand of football is ugly. It's unconventional (even though its been played for years), but not ugly. I don't think Freo will win the GF but before i get into that i will say all praises to Lyon because his brand of football makes his team actually play like a team. Every single member (usually) is hungry for the ball and desperate to lay a tackle. It's annoying for opposition fans (and even maybe some Freo fans) but it says a lot about how good a team they are, not just how good footy players they are. But their style of play simply wont allow them to win flags. Unless they get lucky and come up against an equally-lacking attacking side, they'll be trumped at the goals. You need to have a strong balance, players all over the field that can apply pressure but also break away from opponents pressure. Whether it be Adam Goodes relentlessly pursuing a tackle to move the ball forward, or Luke Hodge weaving between several players to keep the ball moving. The 2012 grand final was one of the best I've ever seen because theres moments of footy perfection everywhere in that game, and quite frankly, i can't think of enough Freo players that would be capable of such brilliance all over the field and in every aspect of the game, whether it be tackling, goal-scoring, ball movement, speed and defending. That's not to say Lyon wont be able to shape his list into a team that can do all those things, but not this year. For me, Sydney and Hawthorn are the best, by a fair way, too. Sure, Fremantle might even finish on top of the ladder but i can't see them beating Hawthorn and maybe may lose to Sydney. If they make it to the GF with the same style they played last year, bet against another loss. Heres why: Hawks can score a bag of goals a game and demolish their opponents through their forward giants in Gunston, Roughead and Hale, as well as their small, crumbing pop-up forwards in Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Hill and Shiels (so far in the NAB hes proven to be a considerable forward talent). They also have arguably the best defence in the comp, as they have a number of players who can move it out of the back-line into their attack (Birchall, Burgoyne and Hodge), a number of players who can match their forward opponents (Gibson, Stratten, Lake and Birchall) and players that can simply man the last line of defence (Gibson, Hodge and Lake). Their midfield isn't the best, but its one of the best. Sewell, Mitchell and Hodge have proven they can step up on the big moments and carry their team to victory (ones a Norm Smith medallist, another is an unlucky Norm Smith loser and the other is a regular Brownlow favourite), as well as players like Lewis and Smith who can go forward and score goals. They have ruckmen options that can play anywhere in McEvoy, Hale and even Roughead when necessary. Then theres Sydney, who now have an almost identical level of depth, skill and experience. You have a forward consisting of a solitary Cloke-like presence in Tippett, as well as tall forwards with the athleticism to play up the ground in Goodes and Franklin. You then have Roberts-Thompson, a wild card that could play ruck, forward or defense and yet another flexible player in Reid, who will play similar changing roles to that of his brother at Collingwood. And then theres the small, fast forwards that can slide on in and kick goals in Rohan, Parker, Jetta and McGlynn. You only need to watch the Rioli vs Jetta chase in the 2012 GF to see how important a game-winner Jetta is. You have a defense that consists of solid built stick-to-your-man players in Richards, Grundy, Smith, Rampe and Johnston. You then have the fast, running players in Shaw and Malceski that can carry the ball forward indangerous times. Then theres that midfield: the best in the competition bar none. OK, so Beams, Pendlebury and Swan are best on grounds almost every week, what difference does it make if they don't have enough to support that core three. Sydneys midfield consists of Jack, McVeigh, Hannebery, O'Keefe, Kennedy and Mitchell. Three of them have won B&Fs, one a Norm Smith, another an unlucky Norm Smith loser and another a second-year player that's statistically matching players far beyond his experience. Then there is the ruck, many have said is a weakness for Sydney, but to have Pyke, as well as players like Roberts-Thompson and fresh-off-the-list back-up options like Derickx, they have enough talent elsewhere to barely be concerned. Look at the best ruckmen in the comp like Minson, Goldstein, Cox and Luenberger - all for teams that haven't seen GFs in years. Flags aren't won in the ruck. Now, as talented and good as Freo are, and as difficult to beat as their game plan is, it would be inconceivable to think Fremantle would win a flag over those two aforementioned teams. You need only look at each player on all 3 teams to see that on the big stage on the last Saturday in September, Fremantle don't have the depth, the flexibility, or the talent (sorry!) to match those sides at their best. It would only take depth-challenging injury lists to Hawthorn or Sydney to allow Freo to slide in, and after last year, Sydney don't deserve any more injuries! I'm tipping Hawks to beat Sydney by 19 points in the GF.
NeeDeep
Roar Pro
Well, I can. You have to kick more than 7 or 8 goals to win a grand final these days and if you don't, you leave your opponents in the game too long. Ross's game plan doesn't put opposition teams to the sword, when he has the tactical upper hand. Based on the pre-season, it looks like a Hawthorn back to back and I like the shin boners to be the big improvers and I almost reckon they could be the dark horse to take on the Hawks in the big one!
dave
Guest
are you suggesting a docker shocker?.
dave
Guest
I have always heard that defence wins premierships.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Yeah that's logical Gene....so just so I got it clear, are you saying Collingwood needed GF1 to know how to play against them for the following week? Makes a lot of sense...it was the game plan not the variables of human psychology that made the difference.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
Hi Cameron, I agree with almost all your comments but I think you are seriously under-estimating the Gold Coast Suns. expect them to make the eight this year. With the midfield talent they have in Bennell, O'Meara, Swallow, Prestia, et. al. the return later in the year of Zac Smith and the natural year-on-year development of the whole team I think they will beat a lot of good teams during the year, Just as they did Collingwood at the end of 2013. I will slot them in for a solid 6th - 8th place finish, ahead of Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast
Radelaide
Guest
I was exaggerating to meet the exaggeration that a team with only 2 less wins ( who missed the 2012 grand final by 5 points) were classed as easybeats and one of our wins was before Tex Walker injured himself. Port only played 2 teams twice that finished lower than them the year before so people have got to get off this whole "dream draw" thing and also while I'm at it "high draft pick " things when teams like Carlton are running around with many top 5 picks (including 4 number 1's) and Port have none, even Hawks and Freo have more top 5's in their teams thanks to Port bottoming out just as the 2 expansion teams came along and took all the top picks, now you've got me all worked up on my pet hates.
Cameron Rose
Expert
None of that has anything to do with the post you were replying to.
Cat
Roar Guru
Drawing one then coming back the next week with the exact same game plan and getting toweled up. Ross the one trick pony won't win a premiership.
Radelaide
Guest
I also wrote they won only 2 less games so they were far from easy beats as Slane implied also look at Essendon, won more games than Port and Carlton yet finished 9th :) so unless you're fighting for finals advantage with percentage how a bottom 10 team went during the year is based upon wins and losses. You may say but what about draft order but that is still a lot about pot luck as experienced by Richmond picking Tambling ahead of Buddy.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Agree with your assessment Rose. However Swans to beat Freo at the end :)
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Agreed Josh. Axle drawing a gf isn't good enough for you, it was his defence that meant they couldn't get one more point.
Radelaide
Guest
I don't believe his off field mates are the problem either but his agro on the field may distract him and his teammates from the goal of winning and it doesn't help that he gets invited quite a lot onto tv footy shows where they are constantly pumping his agro up.
Cameron Rose
Expert
You've just fallen victim to one of my pet hates Radelaide. The Crows did not finish equal 10th. They finished 11th. There is a reason we have percentage. It is a ladder, ranked from 1 to 18, not 1-4, then equal 5th, 6-9, then equal 10th, 13-16 and equal last. All Roarers should take note, because I will continue to savage anyone who continues to make this mistake.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's certainly a classic debate that always amuses me. From a personal perspective, I barrack for Richmond, so I dislike all other teams equally (maybe except for Carlton). It's never even occurred to me to think along state lines, it's a club game. And I live in a world where AFL is a national game and I have Foxtel. If I'm home, the footy is on, regardless of who's playing, so have constant exposure to all teams. Admittedly, it becomes harder to watch the bottom two or three they become pathetic, so you naturally watch less of them.
Radelaide
Guest
So they should be they have added 3 quality experienced premiership players to the team (Hunt, Shaw and Mumford) plus add that to Palmer,Ward,Scully and Davis they have a better line up of experience than the Suns except the obvious choice of Ablett but he is only one man, also I believe their kids are better than the Suns and now you add Boyd to the group (who looks awesome) if him Patton and Jeremy Cameron were in any established team the talk about them would be endless.
Cameron Rose
Expert
If GWS win six games, that will be a spectacular success for mine. I'd put four as a pass mark for them, and hope they surprise me.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It is a strange old show. Lyon is appalling for fence-sitting, probably the most frustrating panel member. Hutchy is just an overfed sensationalist, I don't mind Caro, at least she sticks it to the boys club.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Agree with you Macca bout posts, sometimes i just put my phone down an dont comment or look again till the next day by then its old news. It gives a person the sh#ts at times. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.