AFL 2014: How tough is your team's draw?

With the start of the 2014 AFL season only hours away I will attempt to predict which teams will improve and which will decline with the help of some statistics.

The first and most important one is the strength of draw. This number is the average wins each team’s opposition had for the season, which is obviously a gauge on how tough a draw/schedule each team faced.

For example, in season 2013 Hawthorn’s opponents had an average of 11.1 wins for the season, so obviously the higher this number is, the harder the draw or schedule was for that particular team.

The 2014 strength of draw is just a guide at this stage, as we don’t yet know what the opposition win total will be for the 2014 season, so we’ll go by how many wins each team’s opposition had last season.

What seems like an easy draw now might turn out to be a tough draw by the end of the season. Nevertheless it still gives us a pretty good idea of what type of schedule each team faces for the up coming season.

The other statistic I wanted to show was each team’s record in games decided by one goal or less, as this can be a sign of how ‘lucky’ (or unlucky) a team was during the season.

People will argue good teams win the close games and the worse clubs don’t, but the statistics don’t back that theory up.

For example, last year the Cats won two and lost three (giving them a minus one in this category) and in 2012 Hawthorn were 0-3 (minus three) for the season in such games and they finished on top of the ladder that year.

It’s obvious once a game gets to that stage there is a hell of a lot of luck involved, which is why I’m not expecting the teams with a high plus or a high minus in this category to repeat it for the upcoming season.

That said, let’s get started.

I’ve broken the teams up into three categories based on where I think they will finish on the ladder in 2014.

Here are the teams I believe will contend for a top four spot (in order of 2013 ladder position):

Hawthorn
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.3 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 19-3

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.1 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 Record in games decided by one goal or less : 1-0

Geelong
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.1 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 18-4

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.1 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 2-3

Fremantle
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.3 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 16-5-1

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.09 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 1-1

Sydney
2014 Strength of Draw: 11 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 15-6-1

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.4 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 0-0

Richmond
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.3 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 15-7

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.7 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 1-1

Collingwood
2014 Strength of Draw: 11 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 14-8

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.4 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 1-0

North Melbourne
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.6 (Average wins for opposition in 2013)

2013 record: 10-12

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.7 (Average wins for opposition)

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 0-5

All the same contenders from last year with the only surprise being North Melbourne. But as we know, and as the statistics show, the Kangaroos could easily have won an extra two or three matches had they been able to close out games.

They lost five times and won 0 in games decided by one goal or less giving them a minus five result in this category.

No other team had worse than minus two.

North Melbourne also had the toughest draw in the competition last year and in 2014 they have one of the easiest, so it’s no wonder many are predicting a big year for the Kangas. It isn’t a stretch to expect at least four more wins for them this season.

Based on the above stats, we can expect similar win totals as last year for Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Richmond. Maybe a win or two less for the Cats as they try to replace the premiership players they lost this off-season.

Fremantle, on the other hand, are a tough one to work out.

Looking purely on the strength of their draw this season compared to last year’s you would expect a drop off.

But the Dockers had to deal with a massive injury toll for most of the 2013 season.

They are obviously a side pushing for a top two finish but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they finished with two or three less wins this season.

Collingwood are also difficult to judge as they too had quite a high injury list for 2013 and had to contend with a difficult draw.

Based on that you’d expect more wins in 2014 but they lost some key players this off-season who won’t be easily replaced. I’m thinking similar win total to last year.

Teams pushing for a top eight spot (again, in order of 2013 ladder positions):

Port Adelaide
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.8

2013 record: 12-10

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.6

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 2-1

Carlton
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.3

2013 record: 11-11

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.2

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 3-2

Essendon
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.2

2013 record: 14-8

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.6

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 3-0

Adelaide
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.4

2013 record: 10-12

2013 Strength of Draw: 11

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 2-1

West Coast
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.5

2013 record: 9-13

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.6

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 3-1

Gold Coast
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.9

2013 record: 8-14

2013 Strength of Draw: 9.9

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 0-1

The first thing that jumps out at me looking at the above teams is how good the Bombers were in close games last season.

They were plus three in matches decided by one goal or less, which is a remarkable number as no other team could manage better than plus one.

And, as I mentioned above, I put this mainly down to luck. And to add to that the ‘Dons have a tougher draw this season, which could see them slide down the ladder quite a bit and it’s not unreasonable to expect four less wins in 2014.

Adelaide and West Coast should improve quite a bit considering they have the two easiest draws this season compared to two of the hardest in 2013. I think we can expect at least three more wins from each side.

Hard to see Port Adelaide or Carlton improving too much this season but nevertheless both should be pushing for that eighth spot on the ladder.

Gold Coast is interesting as they have a tougher draw in 2014 but the Suns are obviously an improving side so they would expect to better the eight wins they had in 2013. Hard to see them winning more than 10 games though.

The cellar dwellers (in order of 2013 ladder positions):

Brisbane
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.5

2013 record: 10-12

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.6

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 2-1

Western Bulldogs
2014 Strength of Draw: 11

2013 record: 8-14

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.7

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 1-1

St Kilda
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.1

2013 record: 5-17

2013 Strength of Draw: 11.7

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 0-2

Melbourne
2014 Strength of Draw: 10.6

2013 record: 2-20

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.8

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 1-0

GWS
2014 Strength of Draw: 11.2

2013 record: 1-21

2013 Strength of Draw: 10.7

2013 record in games decided by one goal or less: 0-1

Brisbane would feel hard done-by to be lumped in with this lot after winning 10 matches last season but one look at the strength of the draw and it’s easy to see why.

Plus they lost some young talent in the off-season, so all signs point to a big drop off this season.

The Bulldogs should be happy with 8-10 wins, anything more is probably unrealistic.

The Saints, Demons and Giants should all improve on their 2013 win totals. Wouldn’t be a stretch for all three teams to add three or four wins apiece.

In summary, looking at the above statistics I’m expecting huge improvements from the three sides with the easiest schedules in North Melbourne, Adelaide and West Coast and quite a big drop off for the Bombers and the Lions.

But, as we know, every year the AFL season throws us some surprises and no doubt this year will be no different.