It may not have been the feature race on Randwick Guineas day, but the Canterbury Stakes (1300m, Group 1, weight-for-age) provided the most interesting talking points from the perspective of The Championships.
Appearance stamps herself as the best mare in Australia
In claiming her fourth Group 1 victory in the Canterbury, Appearance proved herself to be the best mare in Australia.
Three other mares have some sort of claim to the title – Red Tracer (two Group 1s), Streama (three Group 1s) and Catkins (no Group 1s).
The quartet have never met in a race but Appearance, Streama and Red Tracer have lined up together six times. And the Canterbury was Appearance’s fourth victory over the pairing of Streama and Red Tracer.
Streama holds the other two successes – when she was fourth in last year’s Doncaster (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age) at the end of a long autumn, and in the 2012 Tristarc (1200m, Group 2, mares, set weights and penalties) at Caulfield.
Appearance was fantastic on Saturday. She sat last on a hot speed and unwound down the centre of Randwick to blow away Not Listenin’tome and Red Tracer in the final 100m.
In a remarkable statistic Appearance has now won a Group 1 at each of her last three third-up runs, at an average price of $19. By continuing to defy third-up expectation, Appearance proves she is clearly the best third-up horse in Australia.
And the most painful part of the whole story is that I’ve been telling everyone about Appearance’s great third-up record whenever I hear them speak of the mare, and yet I didn’t expect her to win on Saturday. I only tipped her for fourth.
I doubted Appearance. And I can’t believe I’m typing those words because she’s been such a great mare to me.
Appearance missed the Chipping Norton (1600m, Group 1, weight-for-age) last weekend – incidentally it was won by Boban who had come off two hidings at the hooves of Appearance – due to a tying up (muscle soreness) issue that has plagued Appearance throughout her career.
When trainer Guy Walter told the racing media how good Appearance had returned from her spell in the summer, he spoke about how she had been freed of the tying up issue.
When she killed her opposition in the Expressway (1200m, Group 2, weight-for-age) and Apollo (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) we were seeing what a pain-free Appearance could do.
So when I heard the tying up problem had returned, I thought the issue would rob Appearance of her outstanding autumn form.
This is where Walter deserves all the credit.
The training performance of Walter – to get Appearance over her complaint so she could perform at a distance considerably shorter and in a race completely different to the Chipping Norton she had been aimed at – deserves the greatest accolades.
This is the sort of effort that elevates a trainer in the eyes of the whole racing industry. Horses very rarely perform at their best mid-carnival after a setback.
Guy Walter can hang his hat on his performance to get Appearance to win the 2014 Canterbury Stakes. Remarkably, it’s her career-best performance.
And I shouldn’t forget to mention that Appearance looked an absolute treat before the race. Her coat and fitness levels were superior to each of her rivals in the mounting yard. And Walter deserves credit for that as well.
Just on Appearance’s great autumn form – if Boban and It’s A Dundeel (who was beaten by Boban last weekend) sit right at the top of Australian racing, it begs the question, where does Appearance sit?
For mine, right now, firmly in our top five gallopers.
In a fortnight, Appearance will meet Boban in the George Ryder (1500m, Group 1, weight-for-age). It promises to be one of the races of the autumn and will determine what Championship race Appearance targets.
Appearance has been nominated for the TJ Smith (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age), Doncaster, Queen of the Turf (1500m, Group 1, mares, weight-for-age) and Queen Elizabeth.
If she was mine, I’d run her in the Doncaster before deciding whether to tackle the Queen of the Turf or Queen Elizabeth.
What happened to Zoustar?
The $20m colt Zoustar made his weight-for-age debut in the Canterbury. But he could only finish a very disappointing eighth.
The Golden Rose (1400m, Group 1, three-year-olds) and Coolmore Stud (1200m, Group 1, three-year-olds) winner from the spring was expected to figure prominently.
In my mind, Zoustar entered the autumn as the best sprinter in the land. A victory in next month’s TJ Smith would entrench the idea in everybody’s mind.
But that looks a mile away now (certainly a lot longer than the $6 on offer from the bookies).
What’s particularly weird is that some of Saturday’s results only further confirm Zoustar’s might.
Dissident, the horse that ran second to Zoustar in the Golden Rose, won the Randwick Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-olds).
Villa Verde, who was fifth in the Coolmore Stud, won the Challenge (1000m, Group 2) at weight-for-age. Not Listenin’tome, who was two lengths off Zoustar in the Coolmore, was just over a length second in the Canterbury.
So what happened to Zoustar on Saturday? Everything pointed to him running a massive race.
The answer to the question is that he punctured badly in the last 200m. He simply didn’t finish his race off at all.
But why? Well, that’s the $20m question.
Zoustar pulled up mildly lame after the race. But according to Chris Waller, the horse seemed okay on Sunday.
Mildly lame? It would be a soft excuse.
Perhaps Zoustar failed because he lacked fitness and had to do a lot work in the middle stages. In the mounting yard, he didn’t look particularly fit and Waller did tell the media that he was hoping the horse’s quality – instead of his fitness – would get the job done. The TJ Smith is Zoustar’s Grand Final.
After racing third and without cover, a half-fit Zoustar was going to be vulnerable in the straight. His cause wasn’t helped when he began to raise his head to the sky, pulling for more rein on a hot speed.
But just because a horse might be vulnerable in the last 100m doesn’t excuse a complete capitulation, especially when they are rated as highly as Zoustar.
Furthermore, Zoustar also pulled all the way up the Flemington straight when he won the Coolmore Stud. And as I wrote a few weeks ago, the best horses can race ungenerously and still win.
Sunline did it all the time, Shamus Award did it in the Australian Guineas and Zoustar did it in the spring. It’s another soft excuse.
What could be more relevant to his failure is remembering that Zoustar had come from last, off quiet runs, to win his two Group 1s. Maybe he is one dimensional?
It’s all a big mess for the Zoustar camp, and his fan club – of which I am a member. Waller is planning to give Zoustar a trial before the TJ. It will make interesting viewing.
The horse looks to be three lengths, maybe even four or five, off where I thought he’d be at this stage of the carnival. If Waller can get to the bottom of the issue, whatever it is (fitness, form or injury), he can make up the ground in the next month.
But Zoustar’s poor racing manners are only going to make Waller’s headache bigger.
Zoustar may’ve been able to act a mule and win in the spring against his own age. I don’t think he’s going to be able to do it in the TJ Smith.
The beaten brigade
I loved the performance of Not Listenin’tome on Saturday. He had exactly the same run as Zoustar but was so much stronger. Importantly, he also looked to have plenty of improvement to come in the mounting yard.
Not Listenin’tome was easily a few lengths inferior to Zoustar in the spring, but there’s plenty of evidence this autumn to indicate he’s bridged a bit, if not all, of the gap.
The Hawkes-trained galloper is a more complete racehorse. He was left completely exposed with 300m to go on Saturday. He could’ve compounded like Zoustar (perhaps if he did, it would’ve taken the pressure off the high-profile colt) but instead he chose to fight.
If it wasn’t for the greatness of Appearance, Not Listenin’tome would’ve broken his Group 1 maiden status on weight-for-age debut. It was a performance – after having to chase the tearaway leader Rain Affair – that deserved victory.
Regardless of his defeat, Not Listenin’tome is on track for his TJ Smith assault.
I thought Red Tracer in third was brave. She was smashed at the start and ended up at the back of the field. In the straight she unwound strongly to take third.
She could back-up next week in the Coolmore Classic (1500m, Group 1, mares, handicap), where she could be asked to carry a massive 59kgs.
Interestingly – and this only serves to shower Appearance with more praise – in last year’s Coolmore Classic, Appearance had Red Tracer’s measure by a nose.
On that occasion, Red Tracer had to carry 2.5kgs more than Appearance. At level weights on Saturday, Appearance was clearly superior.
That shows, more than anything, how much improvement Appearance has taken.
When you factor in the 2.5kgs weight difference from the Coolmore to Saturday, 1.3-length greater winner margin, and the improvement of Red Tracer over the last 12 months, you could argue Appearance is five-length better mare this year. Her improvement truly is incredible.
In fourth and fifth in the Canterbury were some great runs. Sacred Falls, the reigning Doncaster winner, was very strong in fourth. He would’ve appreciated the rain that came with the pre-race thunderstorm.
Sacred Falls seems to be going as well as he was last year when he won the Doncaster on a wet track. The difference this time around is the extra 2kgs he will have to carry in the Doncaster.
Last year Sacred Falls won with 53kgs on his back. In what may be a weaker Doncaster than usual, Sacred Falls has to be a winning chance even if he ends up one of the top-weights. A rain-affected track will help his cause.
I loved Toydini’s last 50m. He charged through the ruck to take fifth. The best part is that Toydini is reliable.
When he storms home early in a prep, he tends to perform even better at his next start. It all eventually leads to a win.
The big question is whether that win will come in the Ryder in two weeks. In my opinion, he’s a definite chance. But the obvious concern is whether he is good enough to beat Appearance and Boban. He is yet to prove himself to be.
Of the rest, Speediness and Streama were just fair. And Rain Affair, who ended up ninth, was better than his finishing position indicates. At the 250m mark, he looked like the winner.
The difficulty for trainer Joe Pride is that Rain Affair’s new weakness – a failure to finish his races off adequately – is still present, despite racing well on Saturday. Rain Affair won’t be winning anything until he sorts out his last-furlong fadeouts.
On Saturday’s performance, he still deserves at least another chance (before retirement is considered).
theJudge
Guest
You can probably put down Zoustar's bad racing manners to him feeling his legs. Horses often have a high head carriage if they are feeling sore.
Sledgeross
Roar Rookie
Guelph anyone??? lol
The Doctor
Guest
The biggest problem with Zoustar is he was pumped up way beyond what he had actually achieved. Comments such as "best horse init he land" and "will win whatever he contests" were over the top for a horse that was yet to resume and had not raced out of his age group. He was clearly superior to his opposition in his 3yo campaign. The question remains how much has he improved since then. Anybody who saw his trial behind horse like Whittington and Barbed would have been querying his status. The trial was OK but not up to what you would expect from the "nation's best sprinter". One thing that cannot be denied is that Not Listenin'tome has improved significantly since he last met Zoustar. That was also his first prep as a racehorse so the scope to improve was there. The Coolmore was his 4th race start while it was Zoustar's 9th. After watching the Canterbury Stakes it is very difficult to see Zoustar turning the table on NLTM any time soon. In regards to NLTM I'm not convinced the TJ Smith is the best path for him. His first up run over 1200m he was being scrubbed along at the corner and took 100m or so to really wind up before bowing them away. Last start over 1300m he fought on tremendously to hold off all but Appearance. These performances indiciate he could be a very strong miler. His breeding also suggests that distance will suit. Doncaster would be right up his alley. It's worth more money than the TJ Smith and he'll be pitchforked into the race with 50kg. He could go round next week in the George Ryder over 1500m and go into the race 4th run in. A slight freshen up and drop back to 1200m at WFA could be a much harder task to win.
andrew
Guest
i wouldn't be putting the pen through streama just yet. as you rightly point out - guy walter is a masterful trainer. she always takes a few runs to hit her straps and best form is over a mile to 2000m (bar her 1400m win at caul when given a soda in front, and accepting she is an oaks winner). it was interesting she had a run over 1200m, then a 4 week break to her 2nd up run over 1300m. I expect her to be at her peak come championships time when the races are 1600m and she is a live Doncaster chance. a tough 1600m is right up her alley. as for NLTM, I think I can claim to be a founding father of his fan club. unfortunately though, you don't collect on this, or get a better price. suffice to say, he is living up to the expectations I have had of him since his first 2 wins in the country last spring. NLTM v Lankan rupee will be a great race in the TJ. both will probably sit right next to each other in the run, just off buffering, and it could be an epic duel over the last 400m. shaping as a super race.
Tim
Guest
I think they could have him at about $30-$40k and make a profit within 4-5yrs. If you make a profit off a $20m purchase within 3 years, then that shows that breeding is overpriced.
kv joef
Guest
Agree about the market telling the story concerning Zoustar. the horse doubled its price in 24 hours 40-20%. Someone who matters put a 'slow' on him. At the turn i thought NLTM would run over the top of him but Z did lift until there was nothing left at the 150 and then the girls showed up in their frilly dresses and easter bonnets. As mentioned, it was a baffling performance, he has a long-way to improve if Lankan Ruppee brings his newmarket form to town.
Drew H
Guest
After reading many blogs here, I think that we all need to take a few deep breaths, relax and take a clear and calm view over many aspects of racing in 2014. Let's look at the trotting/pacing industry for example; an industry that has been slandered more than any other. In the worst of such slanderous times, we saw 6 odds-on starters in a meeting, and probably 5 of them won. For some reason, this sort of racing upsets people. yet I don't know why. To me, it is reliable and true to form racing. We much prefer a mixed bag approach for thoroughbred racing. We do many things to keep it a mixed bag. Are we involved in gaming, or are we fair dinkum involved in war on the track? The model of racing is designed to be entertaining.
Alice
Guest
When your last crop contained the likes of both All Too Hard and Pierro, the next was always going to get overshadowed and unfairly maligned. It's very early days still and we have Shamus Award, Villa Verde, Not Listen'tome and Eurozone who have either placed or won in open class Group One fields (or, in VV's case, Group One quality fields). El Roca and Dissident both look to be cracking types. Dismiss them if you wish, but I'm getting tired of this ridiculous pessimism and slandering of good horses for no reason other than "not as good as last year" as though that's somehow the horses' fault. Especially Shamus Award. His win was not a fluke; he was ridden better, made the right breaks, handled the track better than the rest. He had the right form for the race, very similar to So You Think's. In accordance with the weight-for-age scale, which has stood the test of time for two hundred years, he was weighted equally. Plenty of other horses had their chance to win and yet they did not. As for Zoustar--I wouldn't declare him useless yet, either. Everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong; delayed start, missed the kick, slippery track, lameness, overracing. His run just seemed too bad to be true, and I think he'll improve next time. However, I'm pretty sure that 20 million is way too much for him. Someone told me that to make a profit, that means he'll have to cover 100 mares for about $66,000 service fee for three years. Nobody would pay that much money for him when you can already get proven stallions with similar profiles for much cheaper.
ellie
Guest
3yo crop this year is not as good as last yr. apart from Vulla verde and shameful rewards fluke, not much hasbeen won at WFA.
ellie
Guest
choked. couldnt handle the big leagues
Luke Andrews
Guest
Outstanding training effort by Guy Walter. It was the work of a master to get this supremely talented but physically fragile mare to win yet again. All ready a 3-time Group 1 winner, nobody was doubting Appearance's ability but everybody had to question if she could overcome a recurrence of her tying up issues, and a crack field to win THAT race, on THAT day. It was a phenomenal performance from a top draw racehorse. As a collective I think these mares are undervalued, before the race on Saturday they were the three highest rated in the field. I think a great indicator of the depth to our mares that is Dear Demi isn't included in the upper echelon. She was placed in the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes but is rated below; Appearance, Red Tracer, Streama, Catkins, Samaready, and Snitzerland at least. That is some serious female depth. I am also a Toydini fan and thought it was a great run at the distance. But I am struggling to find the race he will win. I can't see him beating Boban in the George Ryder, I don't think he can win the Doncaster with the added weight and depth compared to the Epsom and the QE looks a mighty tough proposition to any horse. Perhaps he could go to QLD and win the Hollindale and the Doomben Cup?
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
By the way, I was with Justin in doubting Appearance! Generally speaking, I prefer not to back horses who have had a set-back in their preparations. Finished up backing Toydini as I thought he was MASSIVE overs at about 50/1 and would run a strong race. As it turns out he got caught a bit on the bad part of the track before finishing well. There is a nice race for him sometime this prep.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
What a bizarre day of racing, with both Bendigo and Randwick delayed for a significant period of time due to massive storms! The commentators on SevenTwo were talking about how some horses are completely spooked by stormy conditions - even well before the storm hits when they can "sense" it approaching - and can get quite worked up... So maybe that had an effect on the latter races on Saturday? After all, horses are not machines (as much as we would like them to be!).
casper
Guest
Are the 3yo's really up to the level of the previous year or is it all hype created by studmasters & sire syndicates to boost the value of their young colts? Appearance has always had that sit back & swamp them ability & the track bias helped but she still had to do it on the day. How will they value Dissident after the last 2 wins? I pegged him as a non-winner but it's interesting what a breakthrough does for some horses. I was really interested in how Villa Verde had returned to her early 2yo best. I followed her closely after the first 2 wins & always thought she was a top class mare in the making, so has the stable change made a difference? What surprised me about the Challenge stakes was how well Buffering fought on in the worst part of the track, i expected he'd fold & drop out with the lane he was in but he was going as well as all but the first 2 near the line. What has happened to the much vaunted Randwick track, horses racing 4 off the fence around the back & the inside 10 metres of the straight being a suicide lane.
Justin Cinque
Expert
I guess so. Just another thing to consider at TJ time.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Yep Waller's first-up record is very average. In hindsight, the market did tell a story with Zoustar. I really hope people realise how good Walter's training performance was. Mid-carnival setbacks ruin so many horses in big races. Fantastic effort from the Appearance camp!
Cameron Rose
Expert
I didn't get to see the Canterbury Stakes unfortunately, due to being on the way to seeing the Tigers cop a hiding at Metricon stadium, but Justin's paragraph below sums it up perfectly. What a feat! "The training performance of Walter – to get Appearance over her complaint so she could perform at a distance considerably shorter and in a race completely different to the Chipping Norton she had been aimed at – deserves the greatest accolades." The market told the story with Zoustar too, and was a pointer that he wasn't going to be at his best. I may be wrong, but isn't Waller's record with first-up horses not great?
Tim
Guest
It's possible he doesn't handle Randwick too.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Very possible! One thing is for sure, Zoustar had a lot of weaknesses exposed on Saturday. It's the beauty of WFA racing. It sorts out good horses.
Tim
Guest
The pumper said Zoustar wasn't comfortable in the ground. I think he just sat too close and killed his finishing dash.