I must say I was surprised prior to the Force/Reds game to have a quick look at a Fox Sports Round 8 preview to see the Force in excess of $3.50 for a win.
How could this be? I thought about the key considerations generally taken to establish a favourite in a two-horse race:
Form:
The Reds had come off a terrible tour of South Africa and limped to an insipid victory over the Stormers last week. [It must be noted that the Stormers were at the end of a disastrous Australasian tour, injury struck (including their talismatic Schalk and a terrible arm injury to Gio during the game) and clearly out on their feet]. The Reds looked tired and could easily have lost this game.
The Force were well rested after their bye weekend. They had beaten a buoyant Rebels side at home, a tough Highlanders team in Dunedin (no easy task, let alone achieving the bonus point) and the back-to-back Super Rugby champions in Perth after travelling back from New Zealand.
Home ground advantage:
Perhaps a valid reason for hesitancy in picking the Force, the home ground advantage has been strong this year with around a 75 per cent home victory rate.
Further considering in the previous week’s game against the Stormers, as mentioned above, and the fact that the Force won at Suncorp last year, negates this somewhat.
One reason for a strong home ground advantage is the excessive travel often required between games for a team. This was much less of a factor with the Force coming off the bye.
Another, especially in Sub Tropical Queensland, can be the change in climate. With a number of Queenslanders in the Force and a team acclimatised to summer Perth, again I didn’t see this as a major factor.
Squad strength:
The Reds were heading in with a number of injuries. Turner, Faiinga, Shipperley, Toua, Gill to start.
The Force? McMenniman is about the only top line injury and the fact is the Force have developed this season without much of Hugh.
Without the key players from the Reds, a one-eyed Reds supporter would have to agree that the Force probably have the ascendancy in key positions. Matthewson, McCalman, Hodgson, Cottrell, Cowan and Charles have all been arguably among the best Australian conference performers this year.
Godwin and the Honey Badger have been staunch in the backs, perhaps an area of strength for the Reds… until the above injuries are factored in.
There are obviously additional factors such as “will to win” and I will quote a few from the expert Roar panelists, who further bemused me by unanimously picking the Reds with four out of seven powerplays on the Reds!
“The Reds are building nicely, and it’s tough to pick the Force when teams coming off the bye haven’t gone well this season.” – BM
“The Reds will beat the Force because I don’t think the Force can play any better than they have recently, and the Reds have plenty of room to improve.” – SA
“However, despite their recent wins I see the Reds taking this in Brisbane, where the record stands at a much more convincing 5-1.” – PE
“The Reds should improve in their second week in Brisvegas after a tough trip, and will dispatch the Force (probably, maybe, ugh).” – EP
“The Reds are generally unbeatable at home, so they are my pick.” SZ
“The Reds because nobody can perform that poorly in successive weeks” – BB
I also had a quick look at one of the few articles written about the Force on the Roar, “The Force were great but let’s not get carried away” by Brett McKay.
“Over the next month, the Force face the Highlanders in Dunedin, the Chiefs at home, the Reds in Brisbane, and the Waratahs at home, before the rematch against the Rebels over the Easter weekend.
If the Force want to be taken seriously and have the Super Rugby competition take them seriously, they’ll win at least two of those games against quality opposition, and ideally one away from home too.”
Given that the K.P.I. set for the Force to be taken seriously was already achieved prior to the Reds game, why weren’t they?
Is it because for so long the default position is to tip against the Force (I remember picking up many points with the same technique against the Reds in the 2000’s)?
I actually think that the real reason is that the Eastern centric media do not want the Force to win (just listen to the Fox Sports commentary as exhibit A).
Regardless, I fear the Western Force will remain the perennial underdogs in the Australian conference.
sheek
Roar Guru
Chivas, It's a shame you have chosen to be personal. When people get personal, the opportunity is lost to have a healthy debate. So the debates I might have had with you I will choose to have with someone else who might not wish to make it personal. Anyway, I have had a lot of support from a lot of people on this site long before you ever stuck your head in. A lot more positive than negative feedback. You're entitled to disagree, I have no problem with that, but when you make it personal, the opportunity for discussion is lost.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Agree but many of the Gurus see at least 3 or 4 reds in the wallaby pack. WTF.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Ill be at that game Jez. I think the tahs will pumped and confident for this one. Tahs by7. Izzy will be itching to go and though they weren't fantastic against the stormers, it will give them heaps of confidence. It will be a cracker of a game. Packs will be even but our backs will tear holes.
Chivas
Guest
Sheek it is not my ill thoughts of you as I don't know you. It is my thoughts regarding your opinion which is different. The fact you feel the need to pass comment suggesting that the Force would get better respect or following if they changed colours (even said tongue in cheek) is boorish and irrelevant. My point is if you think your opinion has any credibility rather than a rant, I suggest you demonstrate it by laying out a fleshed out proposal that makes sense. Anyway, as it is an opinion site, Ivwas merely wondering under what basis you assume that your opinion regarding what is best for WA or Australisn rugby when you don't even follow it. I don't begrudge you your opinion or your right to promote it. But I would suggest it appears as if you came up with it while drinking too much Chivas while sitting down with a rugby almanac. So I suggest you are out of touch and wondering what relevance you may have, especially considering you can out all fire and brimstone about how you wouldn't be following local rugby... for your only issue to be the playing strip and names of the teams. As the team expands if a club sees it as a gap in the market they can fulfill by picking a strip and name of your liking I'm sure it will be filled. Anyway, there is a plethora of opinions and posts such as yours. I had just been of the impression you were a bit deeper and gave a little more thought to things. Guess not. Keep crusading for another 4 years and telling all and sundry about it if it makes you feel better about yourself. As you say it is an opinion site and that is just mine.
sheek
Roar Guru
Dear chivas, I say this quite sincerely when I say I hope you can get over your ill-thoughts about me. It must be terrible carrying all that hate around each day, or week, that chip on the shoulder, just waiting for an opportunity to strike back. Allow me me cheer you up. These are merely my thoughts only, since this is an opinion site. Funny about that, it's an opinion site. Can you believe it??? I exert no influence on the rugby world (at least none that I'm aware of). Thus, each evening you can raise your favourite chivas & shout, "thank christ for that." Cheers! ;-)
El Gamba
Roar Guru
And surely the Tah's would have to play in caps circa 1883... http://www.rugby.com.au/try-rugby/Playing/RugbyExplained/History.aspx
Rugby stu
Guest
There should be a "heritage round" where QLD and WA play in state colours, I would really like that.
Chivas
Guest
How many Force games have you been to in Perth? You talk of SR and NZ regions as if it is a one for one? You come across as someone who has no interest in the game, beyond the history, which is patchy to say the least outside of Australia and could be read up on by anyone with google. So why do you continue to ram this down people's throats. How much do you contribute to the sport. You want to tell everyone how you have been crusading for the NRC and now don't like it and are going to stop following it. A true supporter of the game hey Sheek. When they start playing in their colours. What analysis have you done to assume any such thing. I would suggest none. What is your proposal for the NRC that makes economic sense and is sustainable. Put it up and send it through to the ARU if it is so water tight. I think your continuous comments are far from enlightening and instead of contributing, you have become boring and irrelevant. Just my opinion. Show me something you have written where you demonstrate any understanding of the economics and alternative options? You are disappointed in others who support the NRC in the format being presented, because it is better than what their currently is. I am disappointed that someone who so clearly dislikes the game continues to add their comments to a rugby forum. Why don't you take yourself off to the cricket or league sites and dump your valuable insight on them.
Rouaan
Guest
The Force should just keep their heads down and continue working hard for their wins...good on them. BUT how weak are the REDS' forward pack....? Even their replacement forwards were spotted walking in the last 10 minutes of the match. I THINK THE WHOLE REDS ORGANISATION IS IN DENIAL ABOUT THEIR FORWARD PACK FOR THE LAST 2 YEARS ! You simply cannot play rugby that way, no forward can carry the ball over the advantage line !
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Well said and they've come a long way since the Richard Graham days... Poor Reds....
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Fair enough Combesy, it looks like gambling to me though. Mind you I was probably just bitter after paying $65 for me and my 7 year old daughter to get in then having people waving tablets in my face trying to fleece me more. No wonder attendance is waning...
sittingbison
Guest
Inconsistent. Consistently. That's been bete noir of the Force, they just haven't been able to put it together consistently, thus the "giant killer" tag when they HAVE put it together and knocked off the Crusaders etc....only to lose the next three games abysmally. However, they really have NOT been shown respect, especially from the Australian journos. Because rhe Force, for all their inability to string a few wins together or get out of the bottom half, have won roughly 50% on the road, won major games in both NZ and South Africa, beaten all the other teams in the competition (I think), and finished above all the other Australian provinces (thanks Sheek hehe ;) ). They almost made the finals in 2007 and 2008. They have a growing regional competition, and are now seeing WA boys getting a game. The single biggest difference between now and the past is their new found belief they CAN win these close contests,. The Force must have lost more games by less than a score over the past 8 years than any other team in the competition. This belief seems to stem from trust and confidence in team mates, the coaches and the administrators - the whole shebang. The Force motto this year is... profoundly..."BELONG" CEO Mark Sinderberry, Coach Michael Foley, and Captain Matt Hodgson have got the whole team ticking like a Swiss watch. Congratulations gent, especially getting it done only a year after being such a complete basket case. Whatever else happens this year, its been a fabulous effort and looks like improving more in years to come.
Combesy
Roar Guru
EG - im assuming you are talking about the 50/50 raffle? It's actually not gambling, you buy a ticket in the raffle and 50 percent of the winnings goes to charity and the other 50 percent to the winning ticket.
El Gamba
Roar Guru
OK Jez, you tip the Force and I'll tip the tahs ;) I hope it is a tough close game either way, befitting of the top of the table clash (almost... May not get another chance to say that for a Force game).
El Gamba
Roar Guru
True Brett, I was surprised that there wasn't one though...
Dru
Guest
I'm still confused as to why we would change from Maroon. Double so if the SOO claims are correct. Reds now, I'm getting used to it, but I'd love maroon back.
sheek
Roar Guru
Thanks Adsa.
Adsa
Guest
I liked your post Sheek!
Magic Sponge
Guest
Killed it this weekend with The Force and Tahs 1-12, How the tipsters did not pick waratahs as pp I will never know. 4 picked the reds as their pp, were they serious.
jeznez
Roar Guru
As a Tah man one of my big fears is that the Tahs think they'll get on a roll like they did in Sydney. The Force are certainly much improved since that match and should be a much tougher proposition this time around.