After just four rounds of the AFL season, the ladder is taking shape and the contenders and pretenders for the finals are clearer by the week. Depending on who you are, however, it either makes for happy reading or bad news.
Brisbane is at rock bottom, Carlton is in a crisis and breaking from within, Richmond seems destined to miss finals and Hawthorn and Geelong just keep rolling on.
After Round 1 in recent history, the ladder positions may change, but the teams inside the top eight usually stay the same.
After just four rounds, the same logic can be applied. The only change that seems likely is either Collingwood or Sydney will replace GWS. However, based on form, Sydney is no certainty despite their premiership favouritism at the start of the season.
Sitting 1-3, all is not right for the red and white.
Lance Franklin came with a huge price tag and expectations but has failed to live up to the billing. Their midfield is coasting and not playing ‘Sydney football’, while simple errors are costing them dearly.
In a world of trouble, Brisbane is a major concern for the AFL.
After losing five key youngsters last year, they are now faced with more injury trouble, with Daniel Rich out for the season, Matthew Leuenberger facing an extended period on the sidelines and Pearce Hanley out for a month.
In a rugby-dominated state, and facing the rise of the Gold Coast Suns, Brisbane are facing a major identity crisis. If the trend doesn’t reverse, the AFL will be left with a major headache at the end of the season.
As for Carlton, their 0-4 start to the season is their worst since 1989 when they went 0-5.
With tough games to come against Western Bulldogs, West Coast and Collingwood, there is a real possibility that they could be 0-7.
Being one of the powerhouse clubs of the competition with prime time TV slots and a large supporter base, the AFL needs Carlton performing.
Infighting among power-brokers is destabilising the club, with Bruce Mathieson calling for the head of president Stephen Kernahan and CEO Greg Swann following the loss to Melbourne.
The next month will be crucial for all involved at Carlton.
At the start of the season, Richmond was expected to make finals.
Their recent trend of improvement was to see them challenge for a top-four position after missing out last year by just two points. Yet after just four rounds, the chances of Richmond making finals seem all but gone.
Friday night’s loss to Collingwood was worse than the scoreboard reflected, with seven goals coming in the final quarter – they kicked just three until three-quarter time.
They look slow and are lacking forward line structure and cohesion.
On the other hand Port Adelaide was at rock bottom just two years ago. But in the space of 18 months, they have over 50,000 members, are the number one team in South Australia and are a contender for the premiership.
Despite a tough draw ahead, with West Coast, Geelong and Fremantle in three of their next four matches, Port are all but assured of a finals birth and will be pushing for a top-four position.
They have three match-winners in attack through Jay Schulz, Justin Westhoff and Chad Wingard. Their midfield is powerful and their defence is underrated.
After Round 1, many were questioning whether North Melbourne were contenders or pretenders. After three straight wins, including victories against Port Adelaide and Sydney at the SCG, North is where many expected them to be.
After finishing 10th last year and gaining a favourable draw under the AFL’s new fixture structuring, North can set up their season if they can claim at least one win against Collingwood or Fremantle.
The form of Cunnington, Daniel Wells, Nick Dal Santo, Sam Gibson and Levi Greenwood has covered the losses of Jack Zeibell and Andrew Swallow and has added needed depth for North to become a top four contender.
At the top, it looks as though Geelong and Hawthorn are the teams to beat.
Both showed why on Saturday, with Geelong holding West Coast goalless after quarter time and Hawthorn dismantling Gold Coast to the tune of 99 points.
Easter Monday will see both resume hostility, with Geelong getting the chance to extract revenge after the preliminary final loss last year.
After just four rounds, there is an inevitability that not much will change come Round 23.
Macca
Guest
Do you some evidence that the 2011 & 2012 list was harder to get into? I agree it isn't terminal for any of the players yet, but Duncan and Christensen were played 20 odd games in their second year, these players are taking longer and I doubt this team is that mu ch betterk
Cat
Roar Guru
I was trying to make the point that the team is harder to get into now then it was in those premiership years by displaying what some of the depth players were then compared to now. Jackson Thurlow had a broken cheekbone in his first year at the club. Joel Hamling was out for 3 months with an ankle injury his first year. Lincoln McCarthy missed the entire 2013 season due to navicular stress fracture. While none have turned out to be career threatening they have delayed their debuts. But geelong also has the luxury of not needing to rush development players. Motlop took 4 years to get consistent, the wait is certainly worth it, any team in the league would take him if they could. So at least give the 2010 draftees to the end of this season, 2011 the end of 2015 and 2012 the end of 2016 to be fair.
macca
Guest
Sorry Gene, I was making the point that Duncan & Christensen as well as Hunt and Motlop established themselves quicker than any draftee from 2010-12 (Although Guthrie was slower than the first 2 but probably quicker than the second) which indicates the 2010-12 group aren't as good as the 2008-09 group, I thought the comments about depth were trying to refute that.
Cat
Roar Guru
I gave 2009 as an example ... a year Geelong won the flag ... not following what I did wrong.
TomC
Roar Guru
Or D. They don't pump up their disposal efficiency stats with low-risk, low-reward possessions as other teams do. It's very, very important not to confuse the disposal efficiency statistic that gets bandied around with actual, genuine disposal efficiency, which would properly measure the gain brought about by the disposal. A handball to a teammate next to you is neither as efficient nor as effective as a 60m kick to a forward in space, although these things are treated equally under the bewildering measure of 'disposal efficiency'. In other news, I thought it was 'Blicavs', but I see you spell it with two 's's. Have I been spelling it wrong?
macca
Guest
I must't of been clear (usually teh words premiership year would narrow it down but for you blokes it doen't much) Duncan & Christensen were taken in 2009, in the best 22 by 2011, Hunt & Motlop were taken 2008 and in the team by 2012. What are your thoughts on those years depth?
Cat
Roar Guru
Hmac, Simpson, Hawkins and Blicsavs have played all 4 games this year together. I left Varcoe out for the simple reason is I prefer player who are more consistent, on song varcoe is awesome, but he goes off boil a bit too much. I would counter that the team is just harder to get into now then it was in 2009 for example. In 2009 the following players were getting games, Mark Blake, Shannon Byrnes, Simon Hogan, David Johnson, Ryan Gamble, Kane Tenace, Tom Gilles, Nathan Djerrkura, Jeremy Laider, Trent West. Compare those with todays depth players, and I will take todays.
macca
Guest
Pretty good team there Gene and I wouldn't argue with much, I would possibly have gone Vardy becuase I think he is "classier" but I can see the reasoning behind Blicsavs but do you really need McIntosh, Simpson, Hawkins and Blicsvas? And I would of thought Varcoe would get in somewhere, possibly before Caddy or Horlin-Smith. But looking at it my point is that Duncan and Christensen established themselves in the best 22 of a premiership side in their 2nd year, Motlop and Taylor both established themselves in their 4th year, from the 2010-2012 drafts we have just Guthrie in the best 18 and Horlin-Smith and Blicsavs battling with 5 others for a spot. I would suggest this demonstrates they aren't in the same class as previous drafts, good players (and possibly just good players in a good team) but possibly not "A Grade"
Cat
Roar Guru
This is really hard but ... B: Rivers, Lonergan, Enright HB: Mackie, Taylor, Hunt C: Kelly, Johnson, Guthrie HF: Duncan, Simpson, Christensen F: Motlop, Hawkins, Menzel Fol: McIntosh, Bartel, Selwood I/C: Caddy, Stokes, Horlin-Smith, Blicsavs (sub would depend on who we're playing, weather etc.) Extremely stiff to miss: Murdoch, Varcoe, Vardy, Burbury, Smedts ... Vardy is the really hard one, but blicsavs is so versatile.
Phelpsy
Guest
I've lived on Gold Coast last 3 or so years and have watched the suns grow massively. Lions still get plenty of media too. But Gold Coast have adopted the suns as they have grown with the suns. It's quite amazing actually and many support both nrl and afl
Axle an the guru
Guest
It is a downside Dave. No one is interested, its not there game, and they let you know it if i talk it. I think the AFL would have been better off having an extra side each in adelaide and perth or even Tassie. I really dont know what the future holds for AFL in QLD.
macca
Guest
Gene - If you compare the 2010-12 draftees with the ones immediately before them the 2009 group had Mitch Duncan and Allen Christensen playing 21 and 19 games respectively in just there second year (a premeiership year for Geelong) while in 2008 Steven Motlop and Taylor Hunt played 22 and 21 games in their 4th years - so far Cam Guthrie is the only one who looks like matching that sort of output.
macca
Guest
Gene – Look at what I am saying “I have no doubt these blokes wil be handy players and probably play a lot of senior football for your club but you currently have 9 players who are 29 or over and they include a lot of you best players and the blokes you have 2 replace them haven’t shown the “A grade quality”” That isn’t saying all those players are no good but even on your own praise you are talking about “Guthrie and Horlin-Smith will be A graders” and “Smedts would probably be playing seniors” that is hardly top line performance from players going in the 4th year. Even if a couple of them become “A graders” the 9 players over 29 are Enright (32) Johnson (30) Baretl (30) Kelly (30) Lonergan (29) Mackie (29) McIntosh (29) Rivers (29) and Stokes (29) that is a lot of A graders or close to to repalce and so far only really Guthrie has claimed even close to a regular spot, And the best 22 if everyone was available.
dave
Guest
I really hopes the Suns do well and Gold Coast gets behind them. As for QLD though,I was there for about 5 years. not long after the Lions had one of the most succssesful periods in the history of the game. Interest in AFL was low hard to find anyone to talk footy with but the thing that got me was how quiet the pubs were on grand final day I always thought of grand final day like the melbourne cup,You just go because its a big nation wide event. AFL have a lot of work ahead of them. Hope they do well because i'l likely return one day,the lack of interest in footy was one of the few downsides there for me.
Cat
Roar Guru
best 22 barring injuries or best 22 available right now?
Cat
Roar Guru
Sorry macca you are absolutely right, everyone drafted from 2010 to 2012 should just be delisted and save the time and trouble, I mean it was compromised drafts so they must all be s**t is basically what you are saying. No one from lower down in drafts ever makes any impact or become A graders right? Try watching some of those Geelong kids some time before writing them off, or listen to people (and no I am not meaning myself) who know a thing or two about them. It was Parkin, Brereton, Hutchy, Barrett and others who this last week were marveling at how good Guthrie and Horlin-Smith are going to be. Keep in mind too Geelong have some young A graders already in Selwood (25 y/o), Hawkins (25), Motlop (23), Christensen (22), H Taylor (27) Varcoe is also just 26 and a definite A grader when on song (but like many speedsters in the game he does disappear at times).
macca
Guest
Gene - If you were to name your best 22 for Geelong how many of the draftee's from 2010-12 would be in it?
macca
Guest
Aransan - I wouldn't be expecting too mcuh from Bellchambers this season - he has been injured for what 2 months now and big blokes often don't come back well from that long off. Carlisle does show promise up forward but again he hasn't shown he can dominate - so your forward line is still revolving around "promising" young talls and a couple of 30 plus small forwards.
macca
Guest
"Guthrie and Horlin-Smith will be A graders." Yet have played just 58 games of a possible 140+ between them? "Schroder just won the JJ Liston medal last year and has massive ceiling yet" Should we go through all the JJ Liston Medal winners who haven't done anythign at AFL level? And Kersten may have been killing them in he 2's but the fact is after 2 and a bit season on your list he hasn't been able to play a senior game. I have no doubt these blokes wil be handy players and probably play a lot of senior football for your club but you currently have 9 players who are 29 or over and they include a lot of you best players and the blokes you have 2 replace them haven't shown the "A grade quality" "Exactly who from 2012 is ‘sending shudders through the competition’?" That is exactly my point for all the drafts, outside of players who went to the Suns or GWS not many from any of those drafts are sending shudders through the competition which is helping the teams with teh already established lists - I am not saynig Geelong recruited badly in those drafts just that the talent pool was well down.
Aransan
Guest
Macca, you have missed my point. Once one of Ryder and Bellchambers is available then Jake Carlisle will be the key forward and the expectation is that he will be a better forward than Hurley was. I am sure Hurley will be better on the backline but he was more than competitive when he was on the forward line. After Hurley and Carlisle are settled in their new positions I wouldn't be surprised to see them switch positions for a quarter in a game to throw the opposition teams off balance.