If Fremantle lose to Geelong this Saturday will the club’s premiership window close? It is a provocative question, but not a hysterical one.
The Dockers have failed to back up their stellar 2013 season, and with a 4-4 win-loss ledger their flag hopes could be snuffed out by the Cats in Perth.
The bigger picture is that 2014 shapes up as this squad’s last chance at lifting the cup. Their three most important players structurally, Matthew Pavlich, Luke McPharlin and Aaron Sandilands, are now well into their 30s.
Most key-position footballers weighing more than 100 kilograms barely last past 30, let alone to 33 or 34.
That star trio may well buck history and continue to be influential players next year. Or one, two or even all three of them could fall apart physically, leaving Fremantle without the weapons needed to secure a flag in 2015.
Considering that, the match against Geelong is of monumental significance to a club which has drastically underachieved over the course of its 20 seasons in the AFL.
If Fremantle lose they will probably have to win 12 of their last 13 games to finish top four. Over the last four seasons, not once has a team qualified for the double chance with fewer than 16 wins.
History also shows that a side has not nabbed the premiership from outside the top four since Adelaide 16 years ago.
The Dockers’ record against Geelong is poor, having won just 10 of their 31 encounters against the Cats since entering the AFL in 1995. But it has improved in recent times, with three wins from their last five games.
Of course, the Dockers registered perhaps the grandest victory in the club’s history against Geelong last September. On that occasion, Fremantle’s stifling defensive pressure choked the Cats’ typically robust attacking play.
Nine goals from Pavlich and Hayden Ballantyne were enough to earn the Dockers a 16-point finals upset. Unfortunately for the Dockers, not only has that famous pressure been largely absent this season but the lively small forward Ballantyne suffered a broken jaw on the weekend.
Against a potent, in-form outfit like Geelong, Fremantle will need to either rediscover that defensive mindset or drastically improve their output up front, minus a crucial goal scorer.
Fremantle coach Ross Lyon stated pre-season that they wanted to become a higher-scoring side. Not only have they been unsuccessful in achieving that goal – they are averaging 85 points per game compared to 92.5 last regular season – but in chasing it they appear to have lost their defensive mongrel.
It has been there for patches of games but we are yet to see a complete defensive performance from Fremantle this season. On the weekend they were terrifically staunch for three quarters before being vaporised by a hard-running and skilful Port Adelaide.
To be fair to Fremantle, many teams have and will meet a similar fate against the Power this year. But their inability to stem the bleeding was worthy of note.
From late in the third term, Port had an extraordinary run of 12 unanswered scoring shots. Their supreme fitness has frequently enabled them to run over opposition teams this season but Fremantle’s defensive structures fell apart.
Geelong had the weekend off thanks to a bye and will have watched the Freo versus Port game with interest. They surely will have been buoyed by what they saw.
By knocking off Fremantle they can keep pace with Port. The Cats have been written off as a spent force prior to the start of each of the past few seasons, yet somehow they keep reinvigorating their list.
If Fremantle lose this weekend they will have to do something similarly special to ensure they don’t fall out of premiership calculations this year and next.
Pavlich, McPharlin and Sandilands are on their last legs and the Dockers have nothing to replace those champions.
Is it now or never for Fremantle? Yes, it appears so.
bryan
Guest
I guess this is what's known as being overtaken by events! :)
John Fedec
Guest
WOW what a thread !! well...me and Gene know where each other stand !! Let's see Nick Inatey...mate, the ROSS LYON game plan is different to the Longmire/Roos game plan because the former is not tackle centric the dockers pressure is mostly implied ! and for you ..Olivia Olivia who ?? I need to sit down with you especially and show you how the AFL works !! Surely you are not saying the Dockers were "LUCKY" to get to the Grand Final in 2013 !? I have them in my top 4 for this year AND the next !! They might NOT win both flags BUT Sydney/Geelong/Hawthorn won't win both either !! IF you are going to make the claim of a premiership window stick....back it up with something !? The records will speak for themselves ! Fremantle will win their next 9 straight and if they beat Geelong at Skilled Stadium in Round 20....well... TOP 2 here Fremantle come !!
Bosk
Guest
Freo fans will of course disagree with me but I just cannot see them winning a flag -or going terribly close for that matter- once Pavlich retires. Their forwardline is quite ordinary even with him, without they will struggle massively to kick a winning score. They may end up having to play Fyfe as a half forward but then their midfield will really suffer, especially given Sandilands is nearing the end. Even if Pavlich continues into next year it may be a bridge too far. Guys like Goodes & O'Keefe look absolutely cooked right now, this is what happens to players once they reach a certain age. Chaps like Harvey & Fletcher are very much the exception not the rule. More worrying for Freo is that all of their recent success has been born out of from Ross Lyon's flooding-centric gameplan. Why's that a problem? Because back when St.Kilda were making grand finals with it few clubs knew how to cope with it, but nowdays most teams have adopted to some degree Al Clarkson's strategy of beating it with short precision kicking. More the point a strategic use of flooding has virtually become a standard tactic across the league. Its not the "secret weapon" it used to be, you can say the same thing about Collingwood's forward press. Manic pressure will only get you so far in this competition. It helps create goals, but doesn't put them on the board. With Pav Freo will be back to familiar territory.
Aransan
Guest
Lyon nearly got two flags for St. Kilda, the first near miss was against Geelong and of course the second was against Collingwood. Terrific efforts given the resources at his disposal.
Aransan
Guest
Make that as Fremantle 9th after Collingwood's single goal effort in the second half against the Crows. It does seem that defence has higher priority than attack this season. Who will be the next 100 goal in a season forward?
Jax
Guest
What's your point Gene? Same as mine? Lyon didn't draft, recruit or develop much of the St Kilda list either. He inherited the bulk of the best players from Thomas and few from Blight. There was a mini-stampede to the Saints when Blight signed on if you recall.
Slane
Guest
When do you make those predictions? After they've already become great? What is the point of that? He almost got the Saints their first flag in close to half a century and is still trying for Freo's inaugural premiership. Imagine what he could achieve at a big club with big money.
johno
Guest
Dawson is key to the defence, plays his position and his highly regarded by his team mates. As a dockers fan I am happy to have him in defence taking on one of the oppositions talls. He's been suspended once since coming to Freo, and that was this year. So your claims of ill discipline are a bit out of whack. He played all games in last years grand final season. You need to pick another scape goat at Freo.
Cat
Roar Guru
Has to actually accomplish something first to even be considered great, 2nd place is just the first loser.
Deccas
Guest
are you a robot?
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Guilty as charged on that count Balthazar although I'd say that the Nic Nat obsession is prevalent across most media outlets.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
No worries I just wanted to clarify that what I wrote had been edited after submission.
Balthazar
Guest
I thought the Iluminati were Bavarian? Nah mate you and your friends from The West are obsessed with Fijians, or one of them at least
Shouts Chen
Guest
Some Fremantle Dockers Fans are praying for the Flag. The Dockers haven't won a flag in its 20-year history. Last year they played sensationally well when they reached the AFL Grand Final. Unfortunately the Dockers lost to the Hawks. Now some Fremantle Fans are praying for the flag for this year.
Aransan
Guest
Shame!
Aransan
Guest
Ronan, I wasn't trying to contradict you. I just thought giving the easy to obtain birthdays would save arguments.
Michael huston
Guest
They can start by getting rid of Dawson. I know Lyon wants to continue his St Kilda affair with him, but he costs the Dockers with constant errors, undisciplined acts that see him suspended multiple times a year and stupid frees that can cost the Dockers in games. He seriously is not up to the standard of a team competing for top 8, let alone a team that was in a grand final.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Ahh...so you meant what is considered the best "open and attacking" grand final ever?
Pope Paul VII
Guest
All out attack on the man also backfired. Not Blighty's personal style either. Great match though. I've cursed Hawthorn for decades before and since this match but they were tough as teak. Geelong vainglorious charge in the last was great to watch. The match had just about everything.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Anyone thought perhaps Freo are simply out of form? They can come back? Just a suggestion, not staying they will but the dooms dayers will live on. They need to rally soon they if they want a premiership this year, or, defy history.