You can shut the gates on the finals. The eight horses have bolted. As supporters, we all love predicting and analysing the permutations of the home-and-away rounds leading into September.
For fans of sides already in the eight, it’s about calculating whether their team can stay there. For those on the outside looking in, it’s about creating paths that will lead to a taste of September action.
The season is not even half over, but that can all stop now.
The top eight teams still must jostle for position, particularly with the historical and very real importance of what a top-four spot means when it comes to winning the premiership.
The remaining ten are simply building for a future beyond 2014, and the draft order is still to be settled.
Brisbane were a likely bottom-four candidate before the season began, and a string of injuries to key players has anchored them to the foot of the table. They may well rise off it, but it won’t be by far.
GWS have blown all credibility gained from their early season victories over Sydney and Melbourne, having regressed beyond belief with two successive 100-plus point defeats to sides that were playing particularly poorly beforehand.
St Kilda and Melbourne were seen as wooden spoon contenders in the pre-season, but both have given their fans hope beyond just wins and losses. The Saints started brightly but have understandably fallen away, while the Demons are noticably improving each time they take the field.
Still, they are no-one’s idea of a finals team.
Some had the young Western Bulldogs pegged as a final eight smoky before the season began, but frankly, it was hard to see where they were coming from. The Dogs are on the right path of gradual improvement, but still have holes all over the field, gaps that may well be filled by currently listed players given more time and experience.
Richmond have been abysmal in 2014, both relative to expectation and as a standalone football side. Let’s not read too much into the win over the Giants, as a margin of that size is always about the ineptitude of the losing side rather than the awesomeness of the winner.
Tigers fans will look at their draw with renewed hope. Die-hard supporters know that hope will be extinguished by one or more poor performances quicker than an Australian man’s chances at the French Open tennis. Their unusually high percentage for a team at 3-6, thanks to the GWS massacre, will keep them in the hunt for ninth for a while yet.
Carlton are a middle-of-the-road side whose supporter base gets over-excited about their finals chances when their team beats other middle-of-the-road sides. They have to face Geelong twice, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney, Fremantle and Port between now and the end of the season, and won’t go close to winning one of them.
Essendon have shown themselves to be a whole lot of average after some bright spots earlier in the year. The fears about their forward-line have been well founded, going from dysfunctional to non-existent during games. Only the bottom four sides on the ladder have scored less than them so far.
People that rate Adelaide higher than they should believe the Crows outfit that turned up to defeat Collingwood in Round 9 is the ‘real’ one.
All the evidence gathered over the last year and a half suggests otherwise. Thumped by Geelong, Port and Sydney in 2014. Close defeats against Melbourne and Carlton. A nine-point win over the Dogs. Yep, they’ve found their level.
West Coast have defeated the Bulldogs, Melbourne, St Kilda and GWS, with only one of those wins coming in their last six matches. Hardly the recipe for September.
Adam Simpson still doesn’t have enough elite midfield talent to work with. Eagles fans can plan their holidays, or jealously watch their Fremantle cousins have a tilt at maiden premiership glory.
At the other end of the ladder are Port Adelaide. Having taken down Geelong, Fremantle and Hawthorn already, they will start favourite in at least seven of their next eight matches. Lock them into a top-four finish.
We know everything there is to know about Geelong and Hawthorn, and they’ll be there come September. Neither have had close to their best 22 out on the park this year, and the Hawks’ injuries may yet prove fatal to their top-four chances.
Sydney are finally building ominously after a slow beginning, but wouldn’t want to finish fifth purely because they couldn’t beat GWS in Round 1. Fremantle finally showed their best before the bye, taking down the Cats with a complete team performance.
The Swans and Dockers are still my tip as grand finalists, which will come as a surprise to those who read my critical pieces on them several weeks ago.
Collingwood have too much top-end talent to miss the finals from a position of six wins and three losses, with their youth showing enough mettle to ensure they won’t suffer too much by comparison. The Pies will be better next year and beyond, but will get more finals exposure this time around too.
Gold Coast are sitting third on the ladder thanks to their heady mix of irresistible talent combined with a dream draw. They’ve still got more than enough winnable games on the run home to finish in the top eight, and with belief now on the rise, they’ll be a dangerous opponent in an elimination final.
Most people will peg North Melbourne as the most vulnerable of those inside the current eight.
But as The Roar‘s Michael DiFabrizio tweeted on Friday, with 13 rounds to go North only have two more matches against teams currently in the top eight.
Even a side with bipolar tendencies such as theirs will be able to capitalise on this friendly fixture. The Roos have been good enough to beat teams like Fremantle and Sydney on the road, and are the only side to take down Port this season. They’ll be playing finals.
So there you have it. The eight clubs that will be playing finals, and the ten that won’t.
You can argue, harangue, debate, dispute and discuss, but none of it will change any of the above. Let’s not pretend otherwise.
Damian Crawford
Guest
Sometimes it pays not to celebrate too early always good to look back at earlier posts lol. A mate who supports the Dockers asked me do they play at home finishing 2nd flights to Perth are booked this was after round 17 I haven't the heart to ask if they have sold their tickets yet
Jax
Guest
good summation
Jax
Guest
Freo did not dominate WC and you can't count Swanny. WC 7.12.54 v Freo 11.7.73 - WC had more shots on goal, just like they did against Port and the Blues. WC kicked themselves out of all 3 games. They should have beaten Port and the Blues but Freo deserved the win but its miles away from domination you called it. It was a 2-3 goal game all day with Freo leading for most of it. Look at WC percentage, 4th in the comp. Defense, #1 in the comp. Not a bad platform for a first year coach! Only the Cats have blown them away at Skilled on an off night for WC. Port, Freo and Pies could not blow them away (2 of your Top 4) and they were in all of those games till at least early in the last quarter. They are 15-30 minutes away from taking some scalps and they will take them. If not this year then next. 10 rounds into a new game plan and new coaches, no-one is left from the Woosh era. WC are tracking along nicely. Some more wins would be nice but they will come. WC's biggest problem is their forward line, not the mids like most people think. No sane WC supporter thinks they will win a flag or finish top 4 this year but they are far better than most people think.
Jax
Guest
Gene just broke a new record - the biggest losing margin vs the Swans in history!
the 13th Man
Roar Rookie
Think your wrong about only Gold Coast. Think they will drop off and finish ninth As much as i hate to say it, i think West Coast will sneak into the eight because of a soft draw my top 8 order as it stands 1. Sydney - Tippet/Franklin combo scary good, favourite for premiership 2. Port- still have doubts over them in finals but have overcome the toughest part of their draw with flying colours 3. Freo- Will come home strong 4. Hawthorn- should still make top 4 barring anymore injuries. 5. Geelong- See them falling away (last night was terrible) 6. Collingwood- Making up the numbers 7. North Melbourne- Same as collingwood, making up the numbers 8. West Coast- Easy draw/ Finals Roadkill
Swanny
Guest
Typical Eagles fan Freo dominated them for 3 of the 4 quarters of footy. Freo also wated many chances in the first quarter as well and still had just as many scoring shots as the Weagles. Yes they should have beaten Carlton (but even if they did, it wouldn't be a claim to fame) and Port also were better than them for most of the game. Bad Kicking is Bad Football !!!! Eagles just flat track bullies but doing the ladder predictor they make the 8 because of soft draw. Will be finals roadkill as they will probably finish 8th and play against one of the top 5 (Haw, Syd, Fre, Port or Geel) i reckon it would be Geelong. They would get smashed
Macca
Guest
Bareny - I am not saying mine is bigger than yours, just the blues were missing 5 out of their midfield rotation, that is harder to cover than 1 forward, 1 midfielder, 1 backman and a swingman. Also how do you fit Lynch, Podsiadly, Walker and Jaensch in? On the blues, they are improving and will be better in the second half but are yet to play Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold COast or Freo and have another game against Collingwood and Port - they really needed to win at least 1 of the Richmond and Melbourne games.
Barneythecrab
Guest
Is what your saying that the players Adelaide were missing doesnt equal that of Carltons? I guiess i dont expect everyone to know everything about all teams players but for your information Adelaide was missing their captain, their number 1 goal scorer which is lynch btw so would def get a game with walker in the side, our best rebounding backman, our best switchman, and one of our best midfielders. So how is that not missing vital cogs in your team? BTW i think Carlton do have a chance to make the 8, i think they are building and they probably have one of the quickest scoring teams going around.
Sam J
Guest
Think you're wrong on the Eagles. They showed they could at least match Collingwood, and it could be argued they may have beaten Carlton, Port and Freo had their kicking for goal not been abysmal (26.43 in those three games). They've only been noticeably outclassed by Geelong at the Cattery, and they've beaten everyone they should have - handsomely. Not to mention, to say the 8 is set in stone when there's a team as brittle as North Melbourne currently in there is foolhardy imo.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
I think I could see Port standing up later in the year dockersfan, but as with young teams, it comes down to momentum and confidence, which is a more fragile prospect in youth.
dockersfan
Guest
Dockers draw? Surely you're kidding. Played the top 10 sides in their first 9 games, how is that easy? Give me a balanced draw mixing top sides with bottom sides over playing both in big clumps throughout the season any day. Port will no doubt fall away, as they did last year. I can't see them beating a Hawthorn, Sydney or Fremantle when the real season begins in September.
Macca
Guest
Barney - In Adelaide's injury list their you have injured players spread all over the ground (and I am not sure Lynch would even get a game now that Tex is back) the blues were missing 5 midifelders including thier best tagger and C Judd - the point still stands if Adelaide (even missing the plaers mentioned) can't beat that Carlton side that played on Sunday I cna't see how they are any better placed than the blues to push for a top 8 spot, and as a Blues supporter I don't think Carlton will make the 8 from here.
Barneythecrab
Guest
Okay so you have the Roos who have lost to the bombers (outside of 8), Sydney who has lost to GWS (outside of 8), Collingwood who have lost to Adelaide (outside of 8), Port whove lost to Roos (just inside the 8) and Collingwood who only just got over the line to West Coast (outside the 8). I would guess then by your comment that 'West Coast and Adelaide have both lost to Carlton. You can’t be doing that if you expect to play finals' then Sydney, North and Collingwood should not be playing finals. All have lost to teams outside the 8 and teams that are below Carlton or lost to Carlton. Sorry no logic. positions for 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th are alive and well.
Barneythecrab
Guest
Also you have to remember that the team that lost to the blues was missing van berlo, henderson, crouch, lynch, otten and shaw. So if you wanna play the injury card Adelaide have it to play in aces.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
I watched the replay today and counted.a five goal difference in umpiring, so perhaps the scoreline flattered Hawthorne
Aransan
Guest
Brisbane last played in the 2009 finals, defeating Carlton 111-104 in an elimination final at the Gabba then losing to the Bulldogs 56-107 in a semi-final at the MCG.
Macca
Guest
Adelaide? You mean the team that just lost to a Carlton Side missing Judd, Curnow, Carrazzo, Robinson and Bell out of their midfield?
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
That is my problem too Axle. Who is worthy of pushing anyone else out? By year's end last year one could easily have made case North should have been in there for the Blues. This year, who actually is pushing into that spot? Only Adelaide in my opinion have any sort of chance and team to do it but...who comes out? I don't know.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Interesting. I understand GC and GWS would not have played. Was thinking about last time Brisbane were in as they have been down for awhile. This year injuries to over half their team makes it hard to get any experience into them whatsoever.
Macca
Guest
Further on that the 1 game the blues have lost in the last 5 (and they were ordinary in it) was against the Pies where they were missing Judd, Curnow, Waite, Carrazzo and Yarran plus Bell was playing with a finger he broke just 2 weeks before and has kept him out of every game since and Malthouse used Menzel as the sub - not saying they would of won with those players in but they were never goig to win without them.