Fear of failure is such a powerful thing. Plenty of champions will tell you it is what drives them the most, and it will drive Queensland to yet another victory in State of Origin 1 tonight.
Some people may ask: Queensland are so used to winning, why would they even consider failure as a possibility?
The answer is this magnificent team is also an ageing one, and the older players know how long they remain there will be governed exclusively by how long they keep winning.
The big names have earned the right to keep going for as long as they want – as long as they stay on top.
More State of Origin:
>> 2014 State of Origin 1 live scores
>> State of Origin draw and news, teams referees, results
>> State of Origin preview (VIDEO)
>> PRENTICE: Why NSW will win Game 1
>> PRICHARD: Why QLD will win Game 1
>> GURU: I sniff an Origin upset
>> TURNER: Behind the scenes of Origin preparation
The Maroons would be prepared to risk losing a series by giving their hard core of long-established players the chance to save one, if they were to fall one game down. And that is how it should be. These great players have earned that right.
But if they were to fall two games down, the traditional rules would begin to apply again and changes would be made for game three. The dismantling of the legendary team would begin, because that’s the way it is in life.
If it was one-all in the series and Queensland then lost game three, those changes would be made the following year.
My view, for years now, is that as long as Queensland keep winning and their line-up remains strong, you keep tipping them at home and you strongly consider tipping them away – particularly if it is a Game 2 they need to win to keep the series alive, or a series-deciding game three.
I’m following those rules again this time, at least for Game 1, because there is no good reason to change at this stage.
Queensland have seven players aged at least 30 in their 17-man squad. That looks a worry on its own, until you consider NSW have six players who fall into the same bracket. And it is significant, when you consider that forwards have to do the most physical work, that those six 30-plus players among the Blues are all forwards, while only two of the 30-plus Maroons are forwards.
During their run of eight-straight series victories, Queensland have become harder and harder to beat at Suncorp Stadium, tonight’s venue. They have played ten games there during that time and won eight of them, including each of the last five. Only a fool would dismiss a statistic like that as anything other than hugely significant.
Halfback Trent Hodkinson will be making his Origin debut for NSW tonight. Five times a NSW halfback has made his Origin debut at Suncorp, or the old Lang Park before that, and four times they have lost.
I’m not saying the Blues will automatically lose with a rookie halfback – I’m glad NSW picked Hodkinson. It was time to move on from Mitchell Pearce and Hodkinson deserved a shot; he’s a very good player. I’m merely stating the obvious fact that it’s going to be difficult for him.
My reasons for tipping Queensland are more to do with Queensland than NSW. I haven’t mentioned one Queensland player’s name here, but I don’t need to, do I? So many of them have been together at this level for so long.
The series won’t be over if the Maroons do win, though. The Blues could come back and level the series by winning Game 2 at ANZ Stadium.
The Maroons have won 6 of the 11 games played there during their eight-year run, but the Blues have won 3 of the last 4.
That is just another indication that the Origin battle is getting tighter, as further evidenced by the fact series-deciding third games were won by just one point by the Maroons in 2012, at Suncorp, and two points last year, at ANZ.
The worry would be if the Blues suffered a heavy loss, which could be extremely damaging even coming back to their home ground for Game 2.
I’m expecting the Blues to be competitive. They obviously have to win at least one game at Suncorp if they are to win the series, and the first game may be their best chance. They will give it their all in a bid to clinch the series with a win at home. But there is so much at stake for the Maroons tonight as well.
The veteran Queensland stars will want to make their own decisions about when their Origin careers end, over the next couple of years, rather than risk having it taken it out of their hands by results swinging the way of the Blues.
NSW are desperate to stop losing, but Queensland are just as desperate to keep winning, because they know the clock is ticking and they can only keep it going as a group for so much longer.
The Maroons won’t be beaten on the score of motivation. The home-ground advantage and the presence of a quartet of superstars in the key positions should give them the edge.
Christian D'Aloia
Roar Guru
No wait.... that's not true...
Christian D'Aloia
Roar Guru
The last time a Bulldogs halfback debuted for NSW, NSW won the series. There you go.
Steve b
Guest
Well picked up Albatross ( G ) im banging this out at work sitting in a bloody excavator so give me a break .
Albatross
Guest
How does getting a gang together lead one to becoming a keyboard warrior champ?? Is that a western sydney thing is it Steve?
Mals
Guest
Oh dear Rick I can see maths is not your strong point. Better get back to your gymnastics training. To achieve 10 series in a row all QLD need to win is 2 out of every 3 games x 10 years which equates to 20 wins out of 30. A few times they have done a clean sweap of 3 nil victories but the majority have been 2-1 series wins against the same opponent. So how is this a world-wide elite level achievement??
Albo
Guest
That's about it Will ! Basically QLD have a much better player in nearly every position on the field ! Only a seriously bad "off night" can defeat QLD tonight !
Steve b
Guest
Get a crip what a load of B.S. Disnick you sound like the ultimate keyboard warrior champ ! NSW by 10 easy .
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Flip a coin 10 times champ and tell me the odds of it landing on heads 10 times! Or your could put it another way, what are the odds of NSW landing on their arse 10 times straight in a 2 horse race. Nice bit of banter, but you have just been schooled...
Mals
Guest
"...it will go down in history as one of the greatest ELITE level achievements not only in Australia, but around the world." WOW! Fantastic hyperbole there Rick, I think you've blown out another sandshoe. You do realise this is a 3 game series contested between 2, yep that's right I repeat only 2 teams?!?!
BlakeW
Guest
Turvey?
dallas
Guest
Inglis, smith, thurston, cronk, slater. 5 best players in the game. Disagree if you like, but they have runs on the board.
Griffo
Guest
and the Cowboys
Griffo
Guest
How do you know you'll have that this time?
Carlos
Guest
Origin has been a done deal for so long now QLD like every year for the last 6-7 years should be considered absolute favourites with the challenge being to NSW to see how close they can get. QLD have got and been able to maintain a core of key players that are amongst the best the games ever seen. Not only that, QLD have been able to source these key players and the core of their team largely from two clubs Storm and Brisbane. As a result their players have all been able to play year in and year out together at the elite end of the NRL. This is an almost unassailable advantage and they should as usual, be massive favourites to win. That said GO BLUES!
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Out of interest Dallas, who do you think those 5 or 6 would be at the moment? The obvious would be GI, although one might argue he was better last year. Nevertheless, at the very top and probably the best in the world. Cherry is also doing very well, so you'd include him. Scott is also chewing up metre. Another I thought might be Parker, he seems to just get better as he gets older. The "Big Three" aren't in their top form though. Thurston is solid as ever, though I'm not sure he has been at top power this year. Tate and Boyd are not in particular form. Hodges is still recovering. Teo, Gillet and McQueen are doing ok, but not amazing. Papali is not in form. The only other is Guerra, who must've been picked on form. So I guess that's five. GI, Cherry, Scott, Parker and Guerra are maybe in top form.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
AlanKC I think Meninga and Co. can smell greatness. To win 10 straight I don't think will ever be done again and if QLD can pull this off then it will go down in history as one of the greatest ELITE level achievements not only in Australia, but around the world. Now I'm not saying many around the world will give a hoot, but to win that many at any level is incredible. In order for them to achieve this they have to win this year, which I believe they will do comfortably. However, next year will be the challenge and what better way to win next year then to mentally destroy them by thrashing them within in an inch of their life tonight. Game 2 would most likely result in capitulation if this occurs followed by an ever bigger thrashing in game 3. Come next year all these young players for NSW won't even want to play and the ones that do will only have ever known defeat. That's the biggest problem for NSW - the team is full of losers and they can not do anything about it!
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Well the last time we had a halfback in all 3 games in the series.
AlanKC
Guest
Jeez, I hope you're right with the scoreline!
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
'The big names have earned the right to keep going for as long as they want – as long as they stay on top.' You summed it up in that one sentence. QLD will win because they have 3/4 of the Kangaroos in their squad, which means they have the better players. It matters little if they are aging, because like you said they are all still better than most younger guns for NSW and QLDers trying to break in this exceptional side. Couple this with home ground advantage and you really can't make one conclusive argument as to how NSW could possibly win tonight. Now that's not to say it won't happen and that's why we have upsets. For this to happen tonight then a MAJOR upset is going to have to occur. I'm predicting QLD 32 NSW 6 in a whitewash.
Griffo
Guest
Actually the last time a bulldogs half back was picked for NSW, Queensland won the series 3-0. Brett Kimmorley. He only played in game 1 that year and was replaced by Mitchell Pearce.