Perched inside the top four after nine rounds, the Gold Coast Suns appear to be on the way to their first finals appearance in their short existence.
Sitting third with a percentage of 112.7% and a better win and loss record than last year’s grand finalists, there is plenty to like about the Suns. Look closely, however, and you’ll soon realise they could just be there to make up the numbers come September.
While their recent form warrants excitement, the Suns’ opponents haven’t exactly been Top 8 quality. And with the exception of the North Melbourne game, their performances have been lacking when they have faced sides of considerable quality.
Former St. Kilda coach Grant Thomas fired off a tweet earlier in the week highlighting the Suns’ season so far.
Suns 3rd on ladder, played bottom 6, 3 in 8 losing by 99 & 48pts to 2 of them, yet still only won 19 of 36 qtrs. AFL gifted FIXture at work.
— Grant Thomas (@Thomo_Grant) May 25, 2014
It’s true that the Suns can only play what is in front of them, but a 48-point loss to Fremantle and a 99-point demolition at the hands of Hawthorn proves that the young side have a lot to prove before they’ve officially arrived.
On their way to third spot on the ladder the Suns have defeated Richmond (13th), Brisbane (18th), Melbourne (15th), St Kilda (16th), Western Bulldogs (14th) and the mixed bag of North Melbourne (8th).
The Kangaroos are a good scalp to get, but it’s true the Suns have received a cushy draw so far. Their run home sees the Suns play Top 8 sides the Swans, Cats, Magpies, and Port Adelaide at home, and one tough fixture against the Hawks at the MCG.
A true test of the Suns legitimacy starts when they begin easily their toughest run of games with a home game against the Swans in round 12, before travelling to Perth to take on the Eagles.
They will return home to play the Cats before playing the Hawks at the MCG, with the testing run ending at home against the Magpies in Round 16.
If the Suns lose all five of those games it’s quite possible that they could drop out of the 8 entirely. Games against the Bulldogs (away), Lions (away) and Saints (home) follow that run, and I expect the Suns to win all three of those fixtures.
Gold Coast finish off their season with games against Carlton (away), Port Adelaide (home), Essendon (away) and West Coast (home). A win in just one of these games could see their season hang precariously in the balance.
That makes this week’s game against the Crows just that more important. If the Suns win they will sit on eight wins, and will probably only need to win four more games to make their first finals series.
However it’s quite possible that even if they lose this week, the Suns could win just 4 of their last 13 matches and still make this year’s finals series with 12 wins. Missing this year’s finals series would be devastating considering the position they are currently in.
Regardless, if the Suns aren’t competitive against the other Top 8 contenders, you can consider their finals hopes to be a false dawn.
Michael huston
Guest
McKenna actually has impressed me as their coach. Although he had a talented young list to work with, he's been able to follow through and turn a lot of them into genuinely good players. I agree their current position isn't reflective of how good they are. How are they going to stop the s*** scary run and attack of sides like Geelong, Sydney and Port? It will be interesting, but definitely good for their experience. GWS had a soft few games to open this season with virtually no opponent, and they basically forgot how to apply pressure since then. Can definitely see a possible grand final for the Suns in the next 3 - 5 years.
Michael huston
Guest
McKenna actually has impressed me as their coach. Although he had a talented young list to work with, he's been able to follow through and turn a lot of them into genuinely good players. I agree their current position isn't reflective of how good they are. How are they going to stop the s*** scary run and attack of sides like Geelong, Sydney and Port? It will be interesting, but definitely good for their experience. GWS had a soft few games to open this season with virtually no opponent, and they basically forgot how to apply pressure since then. Can definitely see a possible grand final for the Suns in the next 3 - 5 years.
Thomas
Guest
Echoing my thoughts exactly. The Crows and Eagles can both be a bit hot or cold and I'd be confident the Suns would defeat both at Metricon (I expect the Suns to knock the Eagles over in the last round) - they'll present tough, but not insurmountable challenges at their respective home grounds. I'm convinced Collingwood are a top 8 side but not convinced they're quite top four and the Suns will fancy their chances in that match. Having said that, the truer test of progress will be how competitive the Suns are against the Swans, Hawks and the Cats and for how long. An interesting six weeks ahead, thats for sure.
Axle an the guru
Guest
If McKenna is any sort of coach he should be prepping them up for a hostile final like environment this week.
Nathan
Guest
I think the main this here is they have been competitive so far, yes they've beaten effectively no-one, but they should at least still squeeze in to finals calculations.. Against Fremantle up until half time they were in the game,... behind, but in the game. If they are competitive against the top sides coming up, and have honorable losses, maybe no to them, but to me that is as good as a win... well not quite but you get my drift. First step is to show up against an Adeaide side desperate for a win in front of nearly 50,000 people, a crowd most of these boys may never have seen. Bring the best game they have, and they'll be in with a shot.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Grant Thomas' comment proves it all. I said as much on this article. Their problem will mainly be actually trying to have the toughness to go up against these teams. May have been "too easy" and they may be in for a shock sooner rather than later. http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/05/28/the-skys-the-limit-for-the-suns/comment-page-2/#comment-2649977
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
We'll wait and see, if they can get 2 wins in the next 6 weeks they would most likely come against any of Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast. I'll be surprised if they knock over Port, Sydney, Geelong or the Hawks.
Thomas
Guest
I'm a Suns fan and concur entirely that the top four isn't realistic come seasons end. What's probably more relevant is that we're now three games clear of ninth. If the Suns can (and they reasonably should expect to) pick up two wins from the next six matches that will likely stitch up a finals spot. Port Adelaide is the only opponent I can't see the Suns knocking over in the last seven rounds of the season, and they only leave Queensland twice in the last eight rounds. Regardless, just being in the finals race will be of enormous benefit even if they do miss out - every game now has consequence to the Suns, with that comes pressure and expectation, on the job training for the intangible part of the game played between the ears which isn't something that can be developed any other way.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Next year they will have improved again so a tougher draw is something that needs to happen.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Perhaps but I thought last year's was good, I don't think losing a final by a large margin is a particularly good experience being on the end of a finals beating myself.
Cat
Roar Guru
Axle in fairness, where they finished last year they should probably have this type of draw, If they finish as we both expect, next years draw will be tougher.
Cat
Roar Guru
Always finals road kill every year, Suns can still use the experience of having been there.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
That's good stuff, we'll have to wait and see how they go!
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Yeah I agree with that, I'm just annoyed that everyone is acting like they have made it when they still have a lot to prove in the back end of this season. It would be terrible if they made the 8 and then were finals road kill against say whoever missed the 4 out of Geelong, Port, Hawks, and Swans. No doubt we will see where they are at in the next 6 weeks.
Harry
Guest
Got to help the club out, I've noticed in my time watching the club that the supporter base has grown, they do a lot to get little kids to the game with fan zones so family memberships are the go. That's a scary reminder, but I like our run home, if we can pinch one of those tough ones and get a win against the three strugglers we should be okay.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Anyone who finishes outside the top for is only making up the numbers. Ive tipped the Goldie to play finals this year from go,partly because of the draw. If it was an even draw where everybody played each other twice i dont think they would play finals. They are an AFL pet so i expect them to get favourable draws for a few years yet.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Good to see you joined up as a member, I've been to a game at Metricon and it was awesome! That was two years ago and it was the Q Clash, was one of the best crowds I've sat in. I hope they stay grounded because if they don't they could become the first side to miss the 8 from being in the top 4 at this point and time of a season.
Harry
Guest
Yeah I am of the same opinion they are around the top 8 but will just be making up the numbers, I'm a Gold Coast member however and I'm quite excited for the future. I just don't think we should get to ahead of ourselves although it looks like McKenna has the boys focused, a win against the Crows will help!
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
I wouldn't say 'exposed' the Suns they are still better than last year. Prestia will be an elite midfielder in no time and Swallow's move to the midfield has helped him. The thing is they have moved past the bottom sides, in my opinion they are now a 8th to 10th sort of team, but would we still be thinking that if they had to play say the Swans and Fremantle twice as well as the Hawks. That five game stretch will be quite interestng.
Harry
Guest
Finally someone has exposed the Suns. They have improved in particular Prestia and Swallow but when you look at who they have played it isn't all that impressive. They are however miles ahead of GWS!