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Perched inside the top four after nine rounds, the Gold Coast Suns appear to be on the way to their first finals appearance in their short existence.
Sitting third with a percentage of 112.7% and a better win and loss record than last year’s grand finalists, there is plenty to like about the Suns. Look closely, however, and you’ll soon realise they could just be there to make up the numbers come September.
While their recent form warrants excitement, the Suns’ opponents haven’t exactly been Top 8 quality. And with the exception of the North Melbourne game, their performances have been lacking when they have faced sides of considerable quality.
Former St. Kilda coach Grant Thomas fired off a tweet earlier in the week highlighting the Suns’ season so far.
Suns 3rd on ladder, played bottom 6, 3 in 8 losing by 99 & 48pts to 2 of them, yet still only won 19 of 36 qtrs. AFL gifted FIXture at work.
— Grant Thomas (@Thomo_Grant) May 25, 2014
It’s true that the Suns can only play what is in front of them, but a 48-point loss to Fremantle and a 99-point demolition at the hands of Hawthorn proves that the young side have a lot to prove before they’ve officially arrived.
On their way to third spot on the ladder the Suns have defeated Richmond (13th), Brisbane (18th), Melbourne (15th), St Kilda (16th), Western Bulldogs (14th) and the mixed bag of North Melbourne (8th).
The Kangaroos are a good scalp to get, but it’s true the Suns have received a cushy draw so far. Their run home sees the Suns play Top 8 sides the Swans, Cats, Magpies, and Port Adelaide at home, and one tough fixture against the Hawks at the MCG.
A true test of the Suns legitimacy starts when they begin easily their toughest run of games with a home game against the Swans in round 12, before travelling to Perth to take on the Eagles.
They will return home to play the Cats before playing the Hawks at the MCG, with the testing run ending at home against the Magpies in Round 16.
If the Suns lose all five of those games it’s quite possible that they could drop out of the 8 entirely. Games against the Bulldogs (away), Lions (away) and Saints (home) follow that run, and I expect the Suns to win all three of those fixtures.
Gold Coast finish off their season with games against Carlton (away), Port Adelaide (home), Essendon (away) and West Coast (home). A win in just one of these games could see their season hang precariously in the balance.
That makes this week’s game against the Crows just that more important. If the Suns win they will sit on eight wins, and will probably only need to win four more games to make their first finals series.
However it’s quite possible that even if they lose this week, the Suns could win just 4 of their last 13 matches and still make this year’s finals series with 12 wins. Missing this year’s finals series would be devastating considering the position they are currently in.
Regardless, if the Suns aren’t competitive against the other Top 8 contenders, you can consider their finals hopes to be a false dawn.
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