Two divisions, six conferences and 32 teams. In 10-15 years Super Rugby may become a truly global competition, played in four continents.
The proposed four-conference, 18-team format for 2016 is a messy compromise of different interests. But it does provide clues to what form Super Rugby may take in the next decade or so.
The seeds of expansion have been planted and it is unlikely that Super Rugby will contain isolated teams in South America and Asia for long. SANZAR will want to push into these markets to compete with the financial clout of Europe.
In order to do that, what makes sense is the creation of new conferences.
The push from the New Zealand Rugby Union into North America is a clue that a North American conference is another strong possibility. Rugby has grown significantly in the US over the last five years at all levels and the success of recent tours from Italy, Ireland and the Maori All Blacks show there is a growing appetite for top level rugby.
This is my prediction of what Super Rugby might look like by the mid-late 2020s.
Americas and Africa Division
South African Conference
Sharks
Bulls
Cheetahs
Stormers
Lions
Kings
South American Conference
Buenos Aires
Cordoba
Tucumán
Rosario
Sao Paulo
Santiago
North American Conference
Los Angeles
Northern California
Denver
New York
Toronto
Vancouver
Asia-Pacific Division
Australian Conference
NSW Waratahs
Queensland Reds
Melbourne Rebels
Western Force
Brumbies
Greater Sydney Rams
New Zealand Conference
Chiefs
Blues
Crusaders
Highlanders
Hurricanes
Pacific Volcanoes (based in Auckland)
Asian Conference
Tokyo
Osaka
Yokohama
Hong Kong
Asia-Pacific Dragons (Singapore)
Seoul
Regular Season Format
Each team plays 18 matches in the regular season including: 8 matches within their conference (twice against three teams), 6 matches against other teams from the same Division (3 from each of the other two conferences), 4 matches against teams from one of the conferences in the other division (for example, in year one the Asian conference might match-up with the South American conference, the Australians with the North Americans and the New Zealand conference with the South African teams).
If the powers that be preferred a 15-game regular season, as will be the case in 2016, then the internal conference games could be reduced to 5 per team.
Finals Format
Each division would have quarter finals (top two in each conference plus two wildcards), semis and finals followed by a Super Bowl-style final between the champions from each division.
How to get there?
The link from what Super Rugby will be in 2016 to what it might become in 2026 could be a Pacific Rim conference, containing teams from Asia, USA, Canada and Argentina.
An alternative option is that SANZAR could help to set up the Asian, South American and North American conferences as stand-alone, home-and-away competitions before eventual inclusion into Super Rugby.
They could be played under the Super Rugby brand from the beginning (for example, Super Rugby Asia). This would allow the teams to be established at a more sustainable financial level and they wouldn’t be added to SANZAR’s Super Rugby as new conferences until certain criteria are met.
That criteria would include financial investment and viability, crowd support and playing standard.
If such a tournament was well run and entertaining, and captured the imagination of fans in every region, then it would all but kill the threat of European rugby and keep top level players in the SANZAR countries long term.
Broadcasting and major competition sponsorship deals could be negotiated centrally with proceeds shared equally. This would maintain greater equity in the competition regardless of the size of the economy from where each team is based.
From an Australian perspective, some players could be allowed to play for teams in other conferences but maintain Test eligibility. It is a much better outcome than losing players to Europe where they are invisible to Australian audiences.
To expand further the only sensible structure would be to have closed conferences or leagues of various sizes with a separate Champions League-style tournament between qualifiers from each.
Many believe that sort of structure would work better to begin with, but SANZAR are not on that track. I believe a tournament that looks something like what I’ve presented above is more likely.
SANZAR’s major challenges would be to attract the investment required to make a global tournament like this a reality, and to convince fans to support it.
Eddard
Roar Guru
Sheek, it's interesting. I have mixed feelings about it but think it could potentially work. And if it did (and that would mean building a significant fan base in Asia and the Americas) it would help keep world class players based in Australia, NZ and South Africa because the broadcasting and sponsorship pool would be so much bigger. From an Australian perspective our teams would play almost all of their matches in a watchable time zone, and the amount of content at a decent time would increase substantially. You'd get matches throughout the whole day on weekends. Essentially the Australian teams would only play 2 matches every 3 years in a really bad time zone (South Africa). Matches in North and South America would be at a more reasonably time. The challenge would be building interest in all the new teams but I think it's possible. If those teams featured some marquee international players (the sort of guys that currently go to Europe) it would help. The other big advantage is it would accelerate the development of the likes of Japan, USA and Canada, which I think would add a lot to test rugby. As their seasons would be aligned with ours there'd never be a problem with getting players released or guys being fatigued after long European seasons (some guys in the Argentinian team go into the RC having already played over 30 matches in the year).
Ozee316
Guest
Looking again I think the OP Super Rugby future seems likely. It has its pluses and minues. It will need to be played in conferences to reduce travel. Main plus is that it can increase interest by having different styles playing against eachother. Also it will increase the broadcast pool and allow these nations to keep their test stars at home. Imagine the boost thats gonna have for Canada the USA and South American and Asian nations who are emerging sercond tier test nations. Having their senior test squad available virtuallu year round for camps and mentoring will spur a great leap forward in their performances.
Ozee316
Guest
When you refer to season you have to define what it is you are referring to. Are you referring to atmospheric and pitch conditions? Or are you simply referring to the traditional time that things have been done. Or are you referring to the times they are done DUE to broadcasting arrangements. None of the above three are in any way an impediment to a global season for Rugby. Tradition is in peoples' minds. So you can see why the NH is the last to budge. Old codgers. Pitxh conditions are much the same in March as in October. Club Rugby is already played in the ideal period in both hemispheres so there is no issue. In the USA there is generally only one ATMOSPHERIC time sports are not played and that is July August. Summer That is Why their season is split in two. Iy just so happens they start in September but this is only because of traditions. Looking at the basics of the rugby pitch their club September start can br moved forwards but season finals npt changed in Europe BECAUSE they play for 9months which is ludicrous. Super rugby starts in March and finishes barely a month or so after Heineken Cup which started in September. NFL is 16 weeks regular season September to January. Clubs are just playing stupid games with National Unions in the NH and the teams for France and England are under strength because players are being rested after a 33 game season.
sheek
Roar Guru
Eddard, Will anyone be watching this version of super rugby in 2024? (Apart from the diehards, of course). :-)
Ozee316
Guest
Ah, what I meant is that there are two common arguments against the Global Season in Rugby. One is crap and the other is solvable. The first is that the weather conditions make it impossible or not desirable. I explained above that this simply isn't the case. Most outdoor field sports have a Spring and Fall parts of their season. Broadcasting is the harder nut to crack but it is solvable. Argentina is getting there and so is Japan and Wales at the moment. European Club rugby is actually Already mostly played in the Spring and it is well possible for Autumn to be reserved for Internationals only. It would not require major tweaks. What it would require is clubs giving up their rights to test players for half a year from August to December which they are as yet unwilling to do. This is already done in NZ Australia and South Africa.
Poppy
Guest
We do all realise that Japan is in the Northern Hemisphere. Why don't we bring Vladivostok in as well. I thought Turnbull's plan in the late 80's was a farce and I still think these Pan Pac concepts are a farce. We can't even manage the comp we've got. As Churchill once said of a desert placed in front of him. "This pudding has no theme."
The Bush
Roar Guru
I am not following what your saying. You seem to agree and then not agree. Would Japan want to change their season around completely and follow a season like in the Southern Hemisphere and then go up against Baseball and Football during the year? Seems ridiculous when they have some chance to carve out a niche market in December, January and February without the two major competing sports. A global season is a major problem as has been evidenced by the failure of the IRB to instigate one - Europe and SANZAR cannot agree on it. On a final note, I am not sure what you are talking about with the USA? The NBA and NHL run September to May/June (playoffs are happening now). so they do not have a March October season. Of the Big 4, only the MLB runs March to October and they play all through August. The NFL runs September to January so again,doesn't follow this season you're talking about.
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Well, some interesting news on the Japan front. The JRFU have decided to look to bid for a place in Super Rugby. That makes two bids from the region alongside the AP Dragons out of Singapore. I for one think that if both meet the requirements then both should get a place by adding the Japanese squad to the NZ conference and the AP Dragons to the AU's conference. From there Argentina should be given first rights to a second squad to enter the SA conference. They have already stated that they plan to select the pumas exclusively from SR post 2015. They will need at least two squads.
Ozee316
Guest
The problem is that clubs have all the power and position their comp in the best time of the season. The SH way of having Test rugby + a 2nd tier pro comp in the Sept-October window when revenue potential is highest os the answer. The only way is for the National Unions to make the Pro comps start in March and finish in June. The comps can continue in September without test players OR a second tier competition can play such as Currie Cup.
Ozee316
Guest
There are no seasonal issues. I live in South Korea and Rugby on North Asia takes a one month break in August which is the hottest and wettest month. Apart from that conditons are good for rugby from March to November. Same as in the Southern Hemisphere. Global Season never had a problem despite what you heard. Pro rugby before August and Tests in Sept/Oct. Thats how the season can be structured. In Japan interestingly its just the opposite foe purely commercial reasons. Tests are played deom April to July in the Asian 5 nations plus the International June wondow. After the hot break in August Pro rugby runs Septwmber to Feb/March. The global Season has never ever been a problem. Not in Europe not in America or Canada. In the USA field sports have two main periods - Spring and Fall - which coincide with a March-October Season breaking for August.
tc
Guest
Eddard I like your passion mate, here's hoping something like this comes about in the future. For those out there who think we in Australasia can go it alone I have one phrase for you, "European Club Rugby Expansion". We haven't seen anything yet, the Europeans believe they can easily double their financial income within ten years, and with this new wealth they will simply sit scouts permanently down in the Southern Hemisphere and pillage us to death including Rugby League. Wake up guys, its us against the Europeans, simple as that.
Brian
Guest
In the US, NFL is WAY more popular than the NBA. I try to follow NBA, but there are too many games. Same with Baseball (although baseball is absolutely boring and I couldn't stay awake through a game if I was paid).
The Bush
Roar Guru
Clashing with the NFL is the worst. It is by far and away the major sports league in America. Rugby's future in the US is to have a professional competition that runs February/March to June to avoid the NFL and only deal with the start of the Baseball season.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Japan plays a European season from September to February/March and they are unlikely to change as the J-League and Baseball are both played in the summer, meaning no chance of exposure. Additionally it should be mentioned that British Columbia plays a winter schedule as well, unlike the rest of the US and Canada - so there are seasonal issues with this.
Eddard
Roar Guru
20 hours time zone difference is better than 11 or 12. And most matches would be concentrated between teams in a similar time zone anyway. But this isn't necessarily the way I would go, I just think it might be the way it does go. Another advantage is that it would align all nations outside of Europe. Teams like Japan, US and Canada etc could be added to the Rugby Championship without any problems.
RobC
Roar Guru
Eddard, we're talking about a 20 hour timezone difference. Not sure that's practical re seasons. Mar to Jul night games in NH may be feasible. But I'm unsure its the best option for players and administrators in that market. btw I don't think clashing with NFL would be as bad as clashing with NBA But that's detail. In general it is an interesting view of the future, adding a wide range of countries and variety in 10 or so years. Which differs to my opinion
Cj
Guest
I really like super rugby, get to watch rugby almost all year. So sweet. But I am bit disappointed with the expansion. I guess it was inevitable that a team from Argentina would be included since establishing the RC. In saying that I'd rather have the future format with RSA teams than none at all.
Eddard
Roar Guru
It's no further than South Africa is from New Zealand. What seasons are incongruent? This isn't trying to align Europe with Asia-Pac. The Super Rugby season would largely suit North America. You can hardly play through winter in Canada or the Northern US. The weather is awful and it would clash with the NFL. A March to June/July competition would work in all these places. It might get a little hot in certain parts of Asia, but you'd play matches at night and structure the draw so that extreme weather conditions are largely avoided.
RobC
Roar Guru
Probably not feasible. Americas too far from Asia Pac. Nth vs Sth hemisphere seasons are incongruent. Ten years from now, I hope NRC will be a sustainble and successful comp. SA have greater participation rate. SR should be more watchable. Improved quality of commentary, in game analysis and more accurate refereeing ie quality / depth, not quantity.
Harry Jones
Guest
Very interesting look into the potential future of rugby.