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Two divisions, six conferences and 32 teams. In 10-15 years Super Rugby may become a truly global competition, played in four continents.
The proposed four-conference, 18-team format for 2016 is a messy compromise of different interests. But it does provide clues to what form Super Rugby may take in the next decade or so.
The seeds of expansion have been planted and it is unlikely that Super Rugby will contain isolated teams in South America and Asia for long. SANZAR will want to push into these markets to compete with the financial clout of Europe.
In order to do that, what makes sense is the creation of new conferences.
The push from the New Zealand Rugby Union into North America is a clue that a North American conference is another strong possibility. Rugby has grown significantly in the US over the last five years at all levels and the success of recent tours from Italy, Ireland and the Maori All Blacks show there is a growing appetite for top level rugby.
This is my prediction of what Super Rugby might look like by the mid-late 2020s.
Americas and Africa Division
South African Conference
Sharks
Bulls
Cheetahs
Stormers
Lions
Kings
South American Conference
Buenos Aires
Cordoba
Tucumán
Rosario
Sao Paulo
Santiago
North American Conference
Los Angeles
Northern California
Denver
New York
Toronto
Vancouver
Asia-Pacific Division
Australian Conference
NSW Waratahs
Queensland Reds
Melbourne Rebels
Western Force
Brumbies
Greater Sydney Rams
New Zealand Conference
Chiefs
Blues
Crusaders
Highlanders
Hurricanes
Pacific Volcanoes (based in Auckland)
Asian Conference
Tokyo
Osaka
Yokohama
Hong Kong
Asia-Pacific Dragons (Singapore)
Seoul
Regular Season Format
Each team plays 18 matches in the regular season including: 8 matches within their conference (twice against three teams), 6 matches against other teams from the same Division (3 from each of the other two conferences), 4 matches against teams from one of the conferences in the other division (for example, in year one the Asian conference might match-up with the South American conference, the Australians with the North Americans and the New Zealand conference with the South African teams).
If the powers that be preferred a 15-game regular season, as will be the case in 2016, then the internal conference games could be reduced to 5 per team.
Finals Format
Each division would have quarter finals (top two in each conference plus two wildcards), semis and finals followed by a Super Bowl-style final between the champions from each division.
How to get there?
The link from what Super Rugby will be in 2016 to what it might become in 2026 could be a Pacific Rim conference, containing teams from Asia, USA, Canada and Argentina.
An alternative option is that SANZAR could help to set up the Asian, South American and North American conferences as stand-alone, home-and-away competitions before eventual inclusion into Super Rugby.
They could be played under the Super Rugby brand from the beginning (for example, Super Rugby Asia). This would allow the teams to be established at a more sustainable financial level and they wouldn’t be added to SANZAR’s Super Rugby as new conferences until certain criteria are met.
That criteria would include financial investment and viability, crowd support and playing standard.
If such a tournament was well run and entertaining, and captured the imagination of fans in every region, then it would all but kill the threat of European rugby and keep top level players in the SANZAR countries long term.
Broadcasting and major competition sponsorship deals could be negotiated centrally with proceeds shared equally. This would maintain greater equity in the competition regardless of the size of the economy from where each team is based.
From an Australian perspective, some players could be allowed to play for teams in other conferences but maintain Test eligibility. It is a much better outcome than losing players to Europe where they are invisible to Australian audiences.
To expand further the only sensible structure would be to have closed conferences or leagues of various sizes with a separate Champions League-style tournament between qualifiers from each.
Many believe that sort of structure would work better to begin with, but SANZAR are not on that track. I believe a tournament that looks something like what I’ve presented above is more likely.
SANZAR’s major challenges would be to attract the investment required to make a global tournament like this a reality, and to convince fans to support it.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.