There has been a lot of comment and a number of articles now on whether coach Ewen McKenzie has selected the Wallabies team on form or on reputation.
Most of you will know that I have been keeping a Team of the Week series going for 15 weeks now and, although I’m nowhere near the judge of form as the Wallaby coach, I thought it worth comparing some analysis of my selections with the initial Wallaby team.
As with my periodic summations, I have also ‘valued’ each time I picked someone between one and three where one was a squeak in for want of a better option, two was a good effort that week and three was a screamer.
The form players are the ones selected most often with the ‘value’ only being necessary if there is a tie.
Below are the results.
1. Loosehead Prop
Form player: Scott Sio
Player selected: James Slipper
I selected Scott in the Team of the Week six times throughout the season, two ahead of James Slipper who was the runner up.
I have a feeling either Scott may be a bit crook or Link wanted to go with more experience because I don’t think James is the most in-form loosehead prop in the country at the moment.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
2. Hooker
Form player: Stephen Moore
Player selected: Stephen Moore
There’s a long gap between Stephen and the next man in this one. The next man was close run but Tatafu Polota-Nau scrapes in.
Verdict: Picked on form.
3. Tighthead Prop
Form player: Ben Alexander
Player selected: Sekope Kepu
Now this is an interesting one. Ben got into my Team of the Week four weeks in a row from Round 5 through to Round 8 but I only picked him once since then. So maybe his ‘form’ was an aberration? Next best was a tie between James Slipper and Kieran Longbottom.
James is obviously already picked and Kieran is off overseas so who is next? Lo and behold it’s Paddy Ryan with three appearances. Sekope Kepu has not featured once.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
4. Loosehead lock
Form player: Scott Fardy
Player selected: Rob Simmons
Now it all falls apart a little this analysis. Scott Fardy is a form player but was selected at blindside rather than lock and I think that’s fair enough. He was pretty close to being the form blindside as well. So the non-selection of Scott here is not an indication that McKenzie is not selecting on form.
So who was next after Scott? I actually had Will Skelton here next but he was only selected three times. Others selected three times were Hugh Pyle and Sam Wykes – both mostly early in the season.
I can understand the non-selection of Pyle since he is off overseas. And Wykes has been a low scorer on the times I have selected him and, while he is a solid Super Rugby player, I’m not sure is genuinely international standard. So going with Simmons makes sense.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
5. Tighthead lock
Form player: Luke Jones
Player selected: Sam Carter
Luke Jones I selected in this spot five times so he narrowly edged out Sam Carter who I selected four times. Luke has become a bit of a darling of the rugby fan community this season with some consistent performances.
Sam looks kind of goofy by comparison but I think there is actually not that much between them.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
6. Blindside flanker
Form player: Scott Fardy
Player selected: Scott Fardy
In actuality Angus Cottrell is the guy I’d picked most in this position, but we know he is injured and out of contention. Of the remainders, a couple of guys were close on his heels being Scott Fardy and, amazingly, Dave Dennis.
When you add the selections and points Fardy scored at lock position, he is the clear cut choice here.
Verdict: Picked on form.
7. Openside flanker
Form player: Michael Hooper
Player selected: Michael Hooper
A pretty close battle between Hooper and Hodgson this one but Hooper in the lead.
Verdict: Picked on form.
8. Number 8
Form player: Ben McCalman
Player selected: Wycliff Palu
Wycliff Palu was off injured for part of this season and may have scored higher if he had been fit, but as far as I’m concerned a player can only display form by playing. A player not playing can’t be said to be in form.
So I’m still giving the points to McCalman. Wycliff did however score this spot the last two rounds so not an outrageous decision by any means.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
9. Scrumhalf
Form player: Nic White
Player selected: Nic White
Nic won this spot by a fair way. Next best was actually Nick Phipps.
Verdict: Picked on form.
10. Flyhalf
Form player: Bernard Foley
Player selected: Bernard Foley
Well, actually Quade Cooper squeaked in ahead of Bernard but we know he is injured and Bernard was picked by me five times compared to Matt Toomua with three.
Verdict: Picked on form.
11. Left wing
Form player: Nick Cummins
Player selected: Nick Cummins
I selected Nick five times this season. Next best was a tie between Rob Horne and Robbie Coleman with four each but Rob Horne scored better on points.
Verdict: Picked on form.
12. Inside centre
Form player: Kurtley Beale
Player selected: Matt Toomua
Kurtley nailed this position in my selections being picked a total of seven times. He has really come on well late in this season so far. Despite that I have said on numerous occasions that he worries me as an inside centre because of his defence – especially at international level.
Toomua of course has not featured once in this position since he doesn’t play here. I do agree with his selection at 12 but I still have to say…
Verdict: Not picked on form.
13. Outside centre
Form player: Adam Ashley-Cooper
Player selected: Tevita Kuridrani
Another position absolutely nailed by one player and that’s Adam. Tevita I have only picked here twice but that’s the same amount of times as anyone else selected here.
I am in two minds about the Tevita and Adam selections. It’s a real toss-up as to whether Adam at 13 with, say, Rob Horne on the wing wouldn’t have been stronger than Tevita at 13 with Adam on the wing.
I’m pretty certain that once Henry Speight is eligible he will be selected at wing and Adam – who is a vice captain, remember – moved back to outside centre.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
14. Right wing
Form player: (Not sure)
Player selected: Adam Ashley-Cooper
There has been nobody that shined consistently on the right wing this season. Joe Tomane has had injury problems and Henry Speight is still ineligible. So in one respect I can understand Link putting Adam out here.
It is probably less risky playing Adam on the right wing where he has international experience already than playing a relative newcomer here – even one like Rob Horne who has played almost exclusively on the left wing.
A pity Jesse Mogg has not developed his running game a bit more this season and had some experience on the wing. I reckon he could be quite something but it’s up to the Brumbies to try that with McCabe perhaps at fullback.
Verdict: Not picked on form.
15. Fullback
Form player: Israel Folau
Player selected: Israel Folau
Verdict: Picked on form.
Altogether that’s only seven out of fifteen picked on form. Now of course I acknowledge that picking the best in each position is not always the best approach and that balance and the ‘shape’ of the team is important, as is experience and so on.
There are a lot of good reasons for the selections of guys like Simmons at 4, Toomua at 12, Kuridrani at 13 and Ashley-Cooper at 14 which I agree with. So I’m not criticising the coach or the team.
Is it a team picked on form though? In a way it is but with a big asterisk being that experience, balance and shape have also been taken into account. As they should.
I do feel most for a few of the Force players like Angus Cottrell, Matt Hodgson and Ben McCalman. The latter two in particular have had blinders this season, been instrumental in the Force getting to where they are and I think deserve more reward for their efforts.
Unfortunately they happen to have some mighty fine players in their way and I guess that’s a great thing for Australian rugby.
Slain
Guest
Big mistake to leave Genia out.....the Coach needs to come to reality!
Combesy
Roar Guru
Mike I was entirely referring to set attacking structures which of course need a platform laid before they will work. But the was in which you intend to play comes into consideration when selecting players. I like AAC but I think kuridrani suits the preferred attacking structure better, as do I think AAC suits winger in that attacking structure
Mike
Guest
Entirely absent from your predictions is any consideration of what happens in the phases before these moves. This sort of analysis is great for touch footie or playing lesser sides. Against the good sides none of this Will accomplish much unless the defence is shaken up first. I suppose it might work against the French... maybe
Combesy
Roar Guru
im not dumping beale at all, as I feel he is a talent. But the fact of the matter is he cant even lock down one position. He's not a 10, he's not a 12 IMO he is probably a winger/fullback. All I was saying is you cant use the IRB player of the year because its not recent. I hope he turns himself around... honestly I do
jutsie
Guest
combesy are u really trying to suggest that beales game hasnt evolved this year? And whether it was many moons ago or not the fact remains that beale has the talent to be amongst the best in the world and with the correct guidance and attitude he could be up there again. Yours and niwdEyaJ's comments are exactly what i was talking about in the response to melon. You all sing the praise of cooper for turning his career around but write beale off without giving him the same opportunity to turn his fortunes around. Cooper and Mitchell johnson are both examples of why you dont just dump talented but troubled individuals. It may takes years of support and hiccups but if you persist it can still pay off like it did with johnson in the ashes.
Combesy
Roar Guru
thanks brett, I also like Fardy at 6, I've just been toying with the idea of having Hinginbotham and fardy on the field at the same time without losing the impact of palu
Combesy
Roar Guru
jutsie, beale was nominated for IRB player many years ago now.. you cant keep dragging that out when people say coopers game has evolved where beale's hasnt
Combesy
Roar Guru
mike I think we will have to agree to disagree because it is very much about style. As I said above if they played a ball runner at 12 and not a second five then AAC would be the perfect 13. But in the wallabies set up it is about options outside the 10, kuridrani is a straight runner, AAC generally looks to come in then beats his man on the outside. The wallabie will be look for options such as cut one to kuridrani with either toomua or foley wraping him then putting AAC or folau on an overs line outside the opposing 13. The will also be looking to put kuridrani on an unders line and either a) pick him out with a short sharp pass or b.) pick folau up running the channel created by dragging the defending 13 in. AAC cooper is a good player and a good 13, but in terms of attacking structures he actually suits the wing in the structures I think Link will employ.
Mike
Guest
Combsey, regardless of"style" or "structure" the basic requirement of a 13 is that he can take the ball into contact, bend the line, so that the ball can be quickly recycled. Kuridrani has potential but to compare him with AAC's polished performance is stretching reality. AAC regularly puts the best defences under pressure in a way that Kuridrani rarely manages. Looking for pretty offloads from a 13 not only misses the main point, but I am at a loss as to why anyone would think Kuridrani does it better anyway? AAC is stronger in defence, has safer hands, bends the line, and importantly he knows when NOT to pass!
Mike
Guest
Jack, draw-and-pass is not a 13's job. He may do it occasionally (as AAC does) but his primary job is to bend the line, something AAC does very well, and Kuridrani is rather mediocre at test level. A 13 is not a "third five" which is essentially what you are seeking. And it doesn't work anyway - draw-and-pass is not enough in test rugby if the defence is set. Anyone who thinks that AAC is only an "average centre" really doesn't have much idea.
mikeylives
Guest
He had a cracker 3 weeks ago against the Canes. Prior to that he was extremely whelming
Fair go
Guest
Size is no small part. The speed of test rugby really demands a force capacity to stand up defences and create secondary lines. When kuridrani develops he will be both a strike weapon and a pivot out wide for the secondary attack lines.
Fair go
Guest
How many halves look good behind a pack going backwards? Genia hasn't.
Moondawwg
Guest
Dah is correct when he said that Toomua is there to settle the play maker (QC last season). MT works great at 12 as his defence is awesome but can also jump in the play maker role. All over the roar he is lauded as a traditional 10 with none of the fancy that QC or Beale deliver (....or not). But MT has no problem running straight at the line if need be, no problem throwing himself in front of a no.8 running at full pace. These qualities make him awesome as a 12 without his play making ability, but he can also cover the play making if our 10 is caught in a ruck/maul/used as a decoy. @niwdEyaJ Beales bag of tricks are different to coopers, and I imagine that if Beale comes on as Fly - it will be by name only.... MT will take a lot of the regular play making and Beale will (should?) be used for his strengths with broken play - Hopefully running off MT and feeding our outside backs.
Fair go
Guest
Mckenzie is the judge of form.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Sorry damn I-phone. Genia should have been on the bench. He can still stew ( I assume that is Links objective ) be sitting on the bench. He has been steady all season and done enough to stay in the 23.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Nice piece WNM, interesting the mix of players selected on form and the ones on reputation. Have to agree the non selection of Genia on the bench is puzzl
jutsie
Guest
pffftttt thats why beale was nominated for IRB player was he?
Brett McKay
Expert
Combesy, hope you see this... I actually like Fardy at 6, and I've long believed - and still believe - it's his best position. In the side that's been picked, Fardy at 6 makes really good sense because of the way he plays like a tall fetcher. Hooper's skills around the park are well known, but for pure pilfers, he's not necessarily as strong as you might like in a 7. Fardy at 6 allows both of them to play to their strengths, which in turn allows a proper TH Lock to come into the side. So to answer your question, no, I think Fardy should be left right where he is...
niwdEyaJ
Roar Guru
Cooper has settled down a lot in the last 12 months... even his tackling/defence has improved significantly... can't say the same about Beale... and frankly his bag of tricks is lacking compared to Cooper so I wouldn't put them in the same league...