Don't bother, Ablett already has the Brownlow sewn up

In Brownlow terms, the past two rounds were only notable for Gary Ablett Junior not getting any votes. But while the AFL season is halfway through, the game is already up.

The only moment of doubt came a fortnight ago, when a frustrated Ablett threw an elbow toward tagger Liam Picken as the two sprawled on the Metricon Stadium turf.

There was a tinge of (Brownlow) favouritism to the fact that Ablett wasn’t cited, but with that scare behind him, the champ will no doubt be especially careful about his temper in the remaining 11 games.

Even if he gets through half of them at half his usual output, he’ll stroll in for a third Brownlow medal in six years.

This isn’t speculation. Most years you’ll hear Brownlow favourites discussed and dissected, advanced and discounted, as cases are made for one contender or another. The key factor is that there are lots of contenders: any year the gong might go to a flashy showboater like Shane Crawford, a quiet accumulator like Adam Cooney, or a dashing game-breaker like Adam Goodes.

But Ablett in 2014 has been so far above the rest of the competition that such discussion is rendered useless.

Over the past 30 years, more than half the Brownlow Medals awarded have gone to players with 22 votes or fewer. Some have won with as few as 17. The lower end of that range will already be in Ablett’s dust. The higher end is one more best-on-ground away. Any votes beyond that will just carry Ablett further and further to safety, in the unlikely event that any high-scoring rivals remain within reach.

In theory we don’t know who the umpires voted for, but with Ablett in 2014, there’s no point feigning doubt. Let’s run through it.

In the season opener against Richmond, Ablett clearly won three votes as the Suns started with a win. His 41 disposals and two goals were only approached by opposition skipper Trent Cotchin with 38 stats, while Dion Prestia and Andrew Swallow were distantly next best for Gold Coast.

He wouldn’t have polled against Fremantle, with 24 possessions in a 48-point loss, but certainly bounced back with three votes against Brisbane, for his 38 possessions and three goals.

Again, Prestia and Swallow were the next best on his side, while Tom Rockliff racked up 35 touches, three goals and 11 marks for Brisbane, but probably missed out to those on the winning team.

Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Matt Suckling and Jack Gunston would have fought for attention in Hawthorn’s 99-point party against the Suns, but Ablett might snag a vote for his 35 stats and a goal in a losing cause.

The next week he was back to three votes in an eight-point win over Melbourne: no one on the ground had more possessions or goals. Greg Broughton hauled in nine marks to go with 25 touches and a goal from half back, while Melbourne’s Nathan Jones had 30 touches and a goal. Ablett had 32 and kicked two.

Three more votes followed as Gold Coast despatched Greater Western Sydney by 40 points. Tom Lynch might get a look-in for his five goals, and Prestia pipped Ablett’s 30 disposals by two, but Ablett’s 11 tackles and two goals to Prestia’s one of each should settle the debate.

The best for the opposition was Callan Ward, but his 32 possessions and a goal wouldn’t have seen him overcome any of the Suns.

It was the same again as North Melbourne went down by 43 points on home soil. Sure, Ablett’s tally of 28 possessions was matched by Prestia and marginally exceeded by North’s Lachie Hansen and Sam Gibson.

Ablett, though, kicked four goals, more than anyone from either side.

He then made it 12 votes from four games when he took on St Kilda. There’s no need to explain this one: 37 possessions and four goals against a next-best of 29 from Jaegar O’Meara, or St Kilda’s offerings of 32 from Lenny Hayes and 31 from Jack Steven.

That makes 18 votes, and possibly 19, in his first nine games. In 1986, 1990 and 1993, that would have been enough for a medal already.

A quiet game against the Bulldogs and a loss to the Crows in Adelaide gave Ablett a chance to be ordinary for a couple of weeks, but no doubt there will be more to come.

Because there’s a lot more to Ablett’s vote-winning than pure stats. One, he’s predominantly the midfield maestro, and that’s where the umpires assign their votes. Two, he rests forward, and the addition of a goal or two often breaks a voting deadlock.

Three, he’s captain, which always helps the aura of the player, especially as the young Gold Coast side so often look to him to drag them across the line. Four, his team are winning, which certainly helps decide the allocation, and may cost a few votes from contenders at Collingwood and Essendon.

Five, and most importantly, he’s Gary Ablett. Yes, I can tell you how many possessions he had, but that doesn’t tell you what he did with them.

It doesn’t tell you about the pinpoint pass out of trouble when pressed against the boundary line on the half-back flank. It doesn’t tell you about the ferocity at the bottom of a pack, nor the silk when released outside of one.

It doesn’t tell you just how many possessions are contested; how many tackles he runs through like crepe-paper banners; how many tackles he sticks like under-seat chewing gum.

It doesn’t tell you about the bursts of pace to get to the ball, the exhilaration of his swoop, the clean, bright trajectory of his shots soaring goalward on the run.

It doesn’t tell you about the freakish displays that only he can conjure: the preternatural ability to foretell the path of the bouncing ball, to collect it, to sidestep and half step, to find a way through traffic and snap over his shoulder or beneath his opponent.

It doesn’t tell of the consternation caused in opposing ranks when Ablett has the ball, the way congested midfields fall like wheat beneath a scythe when he decides that he is moving through them and that nothing will stop him.

This is what we’ve seen from Ablett this year, and with 11 games to go, we’re going to see some more. The end-of-season highlight reel is all I’m waiting for.

So let’s not bother having Brownlow night, it’s a waste of time anyway. Just send the medal to Gary now, and maybe throw in a couple more while you’re at it.