The Melbourne Demons continue to cause their opponents to misfire with a combination of good defence and good luck.
Paul Roos’ defensive Demons aren’t easily beaten, and their opponents’ wasteful ways are making sure of it.
The trend of bad kicking against Melbourne continued on Sunday as the Bombers dominated all statistics, but squandered 69 forward-50 entries to kick just 10 goals and 17 behinds (four rushed).
Despite sizable advantages across all the major statistics, a lowly 37 per cent conversation rate proved the deciding factor.
Much will be made of the imbalanced Bombers attack, but missed opportunities have been keeping the pesky Demons in games all year. Melbourne’s opponents are averaging almost 15 behinds a game, making Essendon’s woeful tally just above the norm.
The Dees are making up this deficiency with effectiveness of their own. Melbourne score the fewest amount of behinds in the league while ranking fourth for average goals against, behind Fremantle, Sydney and Collingwood. They converted almost 67 per cent of the time against Essendon on Sunday to effectively steal victory.
The Paul Roos effect can be seen not just in the numbers, but also on game day.
Led by Lynden Dunn, Jack Grimes and Tom McDonald in defence, Melbourne’s back six have been steadfast all year. While they continue to force difficult scoring chances, luck continues to benefit the stingy Demons.
Tom Bellchambers kicked three behinds, two from directly in front, while Brendan Goddard, a usually reliable kick, missed a sitter from a slight angle. Similar occurrences can be pulled from other games this season, most notably Richmond’s 20 behinds in their Round 9 loss to Melbourne and Adelaide’s 9.14 compared to Melbourne’s 11.4 in Round 7.
In a combination of good defence and good fortune, Melbourne’s opponents have scored 74 behinds this year. On the other end of the spectrum are the West Coast Eagles, whose inaccuracy has them kicking 36 behinds more than their opponents this year.
With Roos at the helm, Melbourne’s evolution from cellar-dweller to competitive outfit is happening before our eyes. While there is much work to do, a sound defence and an ounce of luck isn’t a bad way to start.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Well you're easily insulted then.
clayts
Guest
I still dont think that because a team sets up defensively it means that the other team has to balls it up to lose. It just means the two teams are approaching the game differently. By that logic, the demons can never win a game this season. It will only be due to the other team handing it to them. That's not only bollocks but the sort of insulting/arrogant mentality of the teams the dees have beat. You can only beat what is in front of you
Cat
Roar Guru
Brad Scott just needs to have some fake newspapers printed up with the odds reversed to show the Kangas as underdogs :)
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I reckon. The demonic one's plan is clear. Defend the other mob to distraction. North don't even seem to have a plan most of the time but have knocked over teams 1, 2 and 5. So they should win. Maybe Roosy has another master plan that involves attack and they flog North. If that happens I'll admit I was wrrrrr, wrrrr, wrrrrr.....................you know what I mean.
clayts
Guest
So if the Demons beat north, it will only be because North 'balls it up?'
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Forwarned is forearmed. Which never, ever seems to make any impression on North. They had better not balls this one up.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
I agree that the Dees have benefited from a lot of luck in their wins. Admittedly their defence is holding up well, but Bellchambers missing from 20 metres out directly in front is down to the Gods and is nothing to do with anything Melbourne did well. I also agree that any good side playing well should still beat the Demons at this stage.
Gregor
Guest
Melbourne are just below the Suns and the Cats in disposals, which shows that more conversion of possession to scores would lift them like nothing else.Over the whole season there are three clubs with a negative goal to behind ratio,Collingwood,North Melbourne and Essendon, none of which you could accuse of having a consistently potent forward line, sitting 8th,11th and 15th respectively in total points scored, but who are 6th,7th and 9th Is it as simple as accuracy alone? Hawthorn's 28.6 scoring shots a game are a bit different to the Pies 25.8 but result in significantly contrasting percentages.The Dons have 22.6 shots per game and a much inferior percentage again. Perhaps it's due to kicks that drop short or miss entirely.Perhaps the lower ranked teams have fewer players capable of long kicks. Essendon have the most kicks in the competition and the most marks by an average 20 marks a game over Port at #2,but they sit 9th, because they don't kick enough goals. When defense is king a couple of misses and a couple of short forward 50 entries can cost you the game.
Tim Renowden
Expert
The Bombers had a lot of junk inside 50's on Sunday - just pumping it in long and high, giving the defenders plenty of time to spoil and mop up. For most of the match the Dees then kicked it straight back to the Bombers in the middle of the ground, who then pumped it in long and high... rinse and repeat. It was pretty ordinary. It's fair to say that the Demons' defence has had more practice than most other sides, too. They are now pretty effective and the defensive pressure from the midfield has increased hugely this year. Melbourne got on top when they started figuring out how to move the ball towards their own forward line without coughing it up across half back.
clayts
Guest
I don't necessarily think a potent forward line will find melbourne out. After all, there are probably only 2 teams in the comp with one. Most teams get found out by a 'potent' forward line. I think it is just more teams not being switched on. Good sides dont really play games where they aren't switched on. If they do, semi-good sides will beat them. Such is the evenness of the comp these days. Obviously there is a huge gap in class between top and bottom, but there 10 or 12 teams now who can pretty well compete with any other team in the comp.
Cam Mann
Roar Rookie
Pushing sides to the boundary to take their shots is now so glaringly evident that as Brock Mclean so eloquently put it "Blind Freddie could see it" Sides casually running through the corridor against Melbourne won't be the avenue of attack anymore. But it is true that once the Demons are faced with a potent forward line they will be found out.
clayts
Guest
Definitely a trend. My take on it is, if you are playing melbourne and are off your game, you might get done. That didn't used to be the case. Melbourne miss easy shots/chances plenty though. Pedersen usually misses an easy shot per game (then will kick one from the boundary), Bail has a terrible set shot, Grimes missed a sitter as did Kent on Sunday. Bombers certainly kicked themselves out of it. 4 teams have done it now (and you can add Gold Coast to that, they only got up by 8 points after kicking a ridiculous amount of behinds). Dees deserve some luck after all the ridiculously unlucky situations they have found themselves in I think. Still, good sides that play well will all beat the dees.