There were a number of great results over the weekend. First and foremost, the courage and fortitude of the Essendon players, to manage to put all their off-field traumas to one side for 120 minutes, and keep alive their hopes of playing finals football.
Let’s just hope it doesn’t end in zero as it did 12 months ago, the players don’t deserve that again.
I’m positive some of you are saying ‘they did the crime’, and the show cause notices indicate they have to do the time, but I’m sorry, if you’re a young footballer and someone at your club instructs you to do this or take that, you do as they say.
I have no doubt some of the players fell into that category – but I digress.
Back to the weekend, and the Gold Coast Suns bounced back with a bang from three successive losses, and showed they really can make the eight in 2014.
Before their stunning demolition of Geelong on Saturday, the Suns had shown their continued improvement, but their seven wins had come against teams they should beat; all teams – with the exception of North Melbourne – below them on the ladder and expected to finish there.
But Saturday’s win was against a legitimate contender, and the Suns – not just one Gary Ablett Jr, but all his mates – stood up.
They have a bigger test this week against Hawthorn, followed by Collingwood, and then Port Adelaide in Round 21, but all their other games are extremely winnable, and the Suns are set for history in 2014 with their first finals appearance.
Greater Western Sydney are again giant slayers, this time with a win over Carlton, the Blues sliding further and further away from September footy, and raising more questions about Mick Malthouse’s coaching future.
What the weekend also told me is that with over two months and nine rounds still to play, the top four now will be the final four, and they are really the only teams which can win it all.
Not because of how difficult it is to win the flag from outside the top four, but because that quartet are clearly the best teams, and only a tragic injury toll to them all, or staggering improvement from a team outside the four, would change that scenario.
Port Adelaide shrugged off the disappointment of their loss to the Swans with another clinical win, this time at home over a plucky Bulldogs side which stuck with Port until the main break, then it was back to usual business for the ladder leaders in the second half.
Hawthorn too, were challenged, and it looked for a moment as though Collingwood may not only improve their credentials, but lower those of the Hawks. But like a good side does, the premiers methodically picked apart the Pies, and when all their stars are fully fit, they will again be the team to beat.
The Swans – well, it wasn’t anything to write home about. Slow and sluggish at times, they looked set to bring their winning streak of games to an end at the hands of Richmond (of all teams), but like good teams do, they found a way to win, and the team will shoot for 10 wins in a row. A win against the Giants next weekend will be the first time the Swans have won 10 on the trot since 1935 and surpass the Sydney record of nine straight set in 2012. Redemption, and a slice of history, all to be achieved on one night at the SCG.
And Fremantle, talk about clinical. They simply embarrassed and demoralised a lesser rival in the Lions, and helped their percentage along the way.
While I’ve narrowed it to four, seeing which team lands precisely where come September, and which ones get the top two spots, is of greatest interest.
They all have their share of should win games, tricky games, and significant games, and interestingly each team in the four plays two of the other three in the run home.
Port host Sydney in Round 20, and are then away to Fremantle in Perth in Round 23.
Like Port, Hawthorn host Sydney (Round 18) and head to the west to play Fremantle in Round 21.
Fremantle therefore have a huge boost of two games at home, while Sydney have both games away, but they do boast the best road record in AFL at present, with six wins from seven outings, the only loss being that stunning defeat at the hands of GWS in Round 1.
At the moment, toss a couple of coins to find the best of the quartet. For me, I’m just looking forward to the entrée to the finals – those four clashes in rounds 18, 20, 21 and 23. Then, bring on September.
Bosk
Guest
Gold Coast a "good chance" to win their first ever final against Geelong in Victoria? They'd get murdered by 10 goals at least, assuming they're even good enough to make the finals at all which given the unbelievable cushiness of their draw thus far is still a question up for debate.
Don Freo
Guest
But, Michael, you have condemned The Dockers for the same thing. Mind, you...My compliments. I noticed in your predictions that you have promoted Freo from "off the pace" to a predicted third. Now you're only 2 places on the ladder off the pace.
Penster
Guest
If they were coming off the back of a loss then I'd agree with you. But unbeaten for this many weeks is asking for an upset.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Top 4 will stay the same, positions just might change. Collingwood have been disappointing in the last two rounds where both should have been wins if they wanted top 4. I am happy with the top 4 as it is and they probably deserve to be the top 4 as well.
New York Hawk
Guest
I agree. Did the same thing yesterday and I'm not convinced we stay in the top four, unless we beat one of Geelong, Freo or Sydney. So, to second your motion, go bombers!
Michael huston
Guest
Couldn't you argue the same with Hawthorn nearly losing to GWS? Or Port nearly losing to Melbourne? The best teams are capable of turning a s*** day at the office into a victory, so you won't hear a Swans supporter complaining.
johno
Guest
that would have to be a lot of smoke!
Axle an the guru
Guest
I dont mind watching them either Don,but i think if the Middle East had football it would be called grenade ball, the crowd would be armed with machine guns. Gee imagin the grand final,the two surviving teams. You would be right with the world peace idea tho.
Don Freo
Guest
And I love this "making up the numbers" stuff, Axle. It gives me more finals to watch. The fact that the AFL makes more money is a bonus...not a problem. I'd be happy if they organized a second tier night series from October to March with the bottom half of the list and u18s. As long as there is footy to watch, Australia is happy. If the Middle East could discover Aussie Rules there would be peace on Earth. The only conflict would be on Roar discussion sites.
Radelaide
Guest
Port can realistically get to 18 wins so I doubt they will be usurped.
Barneythecrab
Guest
Don't count on beating Adelaide in Adelaide as a definite either
Don Freo
Guest
Brian, don't count on Gold Coast as a win. Smokeys for top 4.
Don Freo
Guest
I agree Rads. North have plenty of games to usurp either Port or Hawthorn. That's why they play a full season.
Don Freo
Guest
And Buddy's fend off to the head that resulted in a Sydney goal...along with the Deledio mark, cost Richmond the game. Sydney are a worry if they can't run away from a team like Richmond.
Brian
Guest
I wish I could share everyone's optimism but when I look at Hawthorn's draw and compare it to Geelong I'm not sure. We've got 3 maybe games (Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney) 3 we are favourites (NM, Coll, Adelaide in Adelaide) 3 we should win (Gold Coast, Melb, WB) So our current 10-3 at best guess will end with 17-5 but we wouldn't have to be terrible to end up 16-6. The Cats have 5 certainties (WB, Melb, GWS, Carl, Bri in Geelong) Then they have another 2 they would normally win (Ess, NM) and only 2 which are maybe being Hawthorn and Fremantle in Geelong - Hawthorn have to play at Subiaco. So Geelong's 9-4 can easily end 16-6 or even 17-5 if they beat us. In other words if Geelong beat Hawthorn despite being worse throughout the year they are likely to get top 4, and the home and away record suggests they obviously have a good chance of doing so. Bottom line is go the peptide poppers on Friday night.
Paul D
Roar Guru
So long as it’s not the same 4 sides every year, I don’t see the problem with only the top 4 sides having a realistic shot at the title. They’ve been the best teams all season, and the finals series rewards them for that.
Radelaide
Guest
I'd say the top 4 will stay as it is just a matter of positioning and I know it sounds fanciful due to their Jeckyll and Hyde personality but if North can win the ones expected then I just don't know where they could end up (possibly 15 wins).
Pope Paul VII
Guest
What was the decision regarding Watts' spectacular airborne activity against North ( I had the sound down )? Surely it wasn't mark? And could not have been construed as shepherd/tunnel by the North bloke?
mindquad
Guest
If the Gold Coast meet either of North or Geelong in the first week of the finals - and particularly if they meet at Docklands - then you'd think the Suns would be a good chance of winning. You would then not put it past them to be up for the challenge against a battered 'loser'. Similarly, you wouldn't necessarily tip against Collingwood or Geelong, if they finished in the bottom half of the top 8, to be able to win 1 or 2 finals. That said, you would think your grand finalists would surely have to come from the current (ie, this week) top 4.
Axle an the guru
Guest
I agree with you Ash, the only reason they are there is to make the AFL money with finals games,no one who finishes outside the top four will ever win a premiership under the current format,and any side that finishes at 6 or 7 would never have a chance as there just not good enough. If they were they'd finish in the top four.