It never ceases to amaze how the season finds a way to whittle itself to a fine point.
Only a few weeks ago we were singing the praises of a cluster of up to seven or even eight sides as being well and truly in the fabled ‘mix’. One of the most competitive seasons ever, we barked. Was this to be the year someone would win from fifth or sixth? Plenty gave air to that hoary old chestnut.
But now the mantle of expectation is carried by just two heavyweights: Sydney and Hawthorn.
Sydney is a consummate footballing machine. There is no weakness in the Swans’ line up. Argue all you like about the morality of their methodology, the fact remains that they’ve shored up an impeccable forward set up. Their defence is as miserly as it is physically imposing.
Ruck? No Mumford, no worries. Before tweaking a hammy, Tom Derycx was a capable revelation. All the while Mike Pyke has remained surprising, lively and vital. And the Swans midfield is simply dripping with riches – size, skill, courage and strength. Further afield Shaw brings defensive run. Jetta gives outside gallop further up the ground. It’s often said that it’s the bit players that exemplify a team’s claim to excellence. Sydney is a case in point. Nick Smith, Jake Lloyd, Harry Cunningham, and Dane Rampe have been excellent.
For now, at least, the Swans circa 2014 are as complete as any team we’ve seen since threepeat Brisbane.
The Hawks have weathered a storm. Injury has been rife, an ill coach didn’t help either, and yet they’ve won often enough to maintain a lofty rung. No one would have blinked if the Hawks linked a chain of losses. But they haven’t.
Their system has maintained, their uninjured (or should I say less injured) stars have stood tall – Burgoyne, Hodge and Roughead particularly. Breust, Smith, Puopolo and Gunston too. Now the Hawks sit an impressive second when plenty would have had them out of the four and a likely first-week-of-finals casualty.
But now healed bodies return. In weird way list management has been enforced upon them. Will it all just go ‘click’? We’ll see.
And on Saturday night we get to see both flex a little a pre-finals muscle.
It will be an intriguing battle and most likely a preview of something larger.
Equally intriguing is what is happening beneath these two clear standout sides. Not because of what might happen. More because of what probably won’t.
Geelong looks tired. Much has been made of the Cats youth, but it’s the veteran Cattery who make the kittens in their care look the part. In recent weeks there’s been a noticeable lethargy in play. Kelly, Johnson, Lonergan, Taylor, Enright et al are extraordinary athletes, but time catches up. They’ve been part of an extraordinarily gifted and daring side, but they are not the same as what they once were.
Selwood, commendably, remains Selwood, and Duncan and Guthrie have their moments. But moments are not enough, and when older, steadier hands have less to give, it shows. Only two of the Cats top disposal gatherers (Duncan and Christensen) could be classed as up and comers. It’s a pretty telling crystal ball statistic. And last week GWS all but ran them down. Perhaps it was a pretty telling crystal ball game.
What then of Fremantle?
Plenty will argue the Dockers shock loss to St Kilda last weekend was just a blip on an otherwise solid build towards September. On balance I beg to differ.
The Dockers’ system was shown up as flawed. Pace and unbridled effort broke down the much vaunted purple wall. The Saints ran at the Dockers and the Dockers had nowhere to go. If sides can kick a few early, Freo’s own inability to score might just catch them out. In a sense it was this that saw when Fremantle fell short in last year’s decider.
Sandilands and Ballantyne were big outs, of course. The former is a formidable presence, and the latter brings team-lifting zeal. But would they have plugged the leaks? With Mundy, Fyfe, Pavlich, McPharlin and Mayne still on the park, there was plenty of enviable A grade talent still playing.
The Freo grind requires so much effort. Ross Lyon-era St Kilda ran out of gas eventually. Are the Dockers following suit? Does there come a point in time when it’s all just too bloody hard? Or will a shock loss be Fremantle’s making; a shot in the arm at just the right time?
North Melbourne can be exhilaratingly brilliant (see Hawthorn). They can also be almost intolerably shoddy (see Brisbane and Carlton). It’s as pointless trying to find a reason for such duplicity as it is to wring your hands and scream to the heavens in frustration. In the end it simply is what it is.
There’s good Kangas and bad Kangas and never the twain shall meet. So what if North smack down a more fancied first week finals opponent? There’ll always be the week after to bring them crashing down. Roos faithful, I feel your pain. It’s excruciating.
And what is with Collingwood? Are they building a list, or are they hanging in there for the sake of remaining a competitive presence? I can’t really tell. Does the enigmatic Swanny care enough? Should a club rely on ambivalence? Is Cloke for real or not? Is that defence a little threadbare? If not the brilliant Pendlebury, then who? The Pies sit eighth with a hell of a run home and the all the below-the-liners breathing down their neck. Their season could well sag badly.
Port Adelaide are where the Pies might find themselves. They were a standout early with their intoxicating gut-runnery, but now, alas, the spark is gone. There’s relatively few injury worries, and yet just two from their last five have left them facing tough season end in which no game is a gimme.
Then there’s Essendon. Paradoxically, at sixth, they’re looking as good as anyone, at least in theory. But the recent wins have been narrow. They’ve had a few like that this year. Nine of the Bombers’ victories have been by fifteen or less.
It’s a testament to Essendon’s ability to have a real dip at a time when ASADA-related torment could have sunk them, but it doesn’t really fill a tipsters heart with confidence, especially given the Bombers haven’t beaten any of the sides presently above them on the ladder beyond a gutsy (if fortunate) recent fall over the line against Port and a victory over North Melbourne way back in Round 1.
What Adelaide and Gold Coast would give for a few of Essendon’s pinched victories at this late stage of the year…
The Crows can no longer afford to lose, you’d reckon. The Suns destiny remains far more controllable, but there’s little leeway. A QClash test at the Gabba awaits. The Gold Coast were flat against the Dogs a fortnight back. Ablett or not, a week off should hold them in good stead. But the Lions are no slouches. A grisly competitiveness has emerged this year, especially at home. They won’t roll over. The Suns will be edgy going in, but win this and they have the Saints and Port at home separated by an away game against the Blues. Their last round is against Essendon. Perhaps that is the game that will decide their fate?
Regardless, though, it’s the Swans and Hawks who require toppling.
Jump a hurdle, and Everest awaits.
Good luck with that.
Ando
Guest
I dont think that's entirely accurate. As a Port supporter I would suggest its more along the lines of while we have been lucky with the amount of injuries we've had, we've been unlucky with who they've happened to. 2nd and 3rd choice ruckmen go down with season ending knee injuries weeks apart, then 2 main key defenders (one of whom is the backup ruckman) go down in the one game. Remember it was just last season we were trying to work out how to fit all our talls into the side.
Jailbird_joey
Guest
Ha!
Don Freo
Guest
Grey and Sheridan are the next midfielders on Freo's list. Grey is tough in and under. Sheridan is smooth and classy. He is just learning to execute those skills more sharply when under pressure. He has obviously always relied on the class and just needs to add the urgency and hardness that allows him to stand up a moment longer to either hold possession or dispose that moment faster. He is the potential great improver next year. Ballas and Walters at the feet of Apeness' pack busting collisions, added to Pav cruising around, is exciting. Would not tamper with that.
Don Freo
Guest
You know how you can't see Sydney not winning the flag?...Perhaps that's because it's the only team you watch. There is class, consistency, effort and depth at Hawks, Freo, Cats, Gold Coast. Class and depth at North M (no Consistency). Four points is not "so far...' They can win against the Hawks today but they may not...they are not that far ahead.
Aaron
Guest
Port has significant problems fielding talls and secondary rucks, these are key positions without players to replace them, perhaps a mosey at their second tier list will show you that they lack depth in big men
Moose
Guest
Sydney lost to gws earlier in the season, Freo has lost to st kilda. It's July, keep the powder dry . . .
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
I'm all well and good suggesting teams for the grand final, but excluding teams when there is only a game difference from 2-5, it seems preemptive.
Michael huston
Guest
Wish I had your optimism re the Swans Stuart. To the Freo supporters - mainly Balthazar, Don Freo and Johno - I completely agree the way people jumped off the Freo bandwagon over one game was ridiculous. I, however, was never on the Freo bandwagon so I try to judge your team fairly. Admittedly you know your team better than I do, but from an outsiders perspective, I've had my questions about them since last year and still do. I've stated my opinions on where I think they need to go to take that extra step and win the flag, but yep, I feel your pain in people underestimating (and half the time not understanding your team), I had to witness the same thing happen with the Swans - but at least you haven't had to put up with the same articles for a whole month!
Stuart
Guest
Hit the nail on the head with regards Geelong, Matt. I am continually amazed by those that rate Geelong's young players at all. There is a lot of mediocrity there that is covered over by an over-reliance on their older players. Swans and Hawks are the standouts when you look at the quality of their lists and genuine class of their young players. These teams already don't rely on guys they won't have in 2 years. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised though, people don't tend to watch teams other than the one they support anywhere near close enough to truly understand why the other team is better than theirs. Sydney is not the raging flag favourite that is being suggested for no reason. It really is a case where they should be embarrassed if they don't go all the way. Extroadinary team and clearly the best Swans team I have ever seen. For those of you that aren't Swans supporters, I can guarantee that they are the best Swans team that you have ever seen as well.
Stuart
Guest
Hit the nail on the head with regards Geelong, Matt. I am continually amazed by those that rate Geelong's young players at all. There is a lot of mediocrity there that is covered over by an over-reliance on their older players. Swans and Hawks are the standouts when you look at the quality of their lists and genuine class of their young players. These teams already don't rely on guys they won't have in 2 years. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised though, people don't tend to watch teams other than the one they support anywhere near close enough to truly understand why the other team is better than theirs. Sydney is not the raging flag favourite that is being suggested for no reason. It really is a case where they should be embarrassed if they don't go all the way. Extroadinary team and clearly the best Swans team I have ever seen. For those of you that aren't Swans supporters, I can guarantee that they are the best Swans team that you have ever seen as well.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Absolutely Balthazar, Freo has one of the most flexible lists in the comp.
Balthazar
Guest
But Walters already plays in the middle successfully. He was a midfielder in his junior years. And Ballas has been trialled with less success. Fyfe is also stationed forward sometimes and Barlow also drifts forward a bit. Most players in the team can play in more than one position e.g. you'll see any of Duffield, de Boer, Suban, Mzungu, Ibbo at clearances, Mayne or Hill in the backline and occasionally McPharlin or even Johnson as a forward. Freo moves its players around more than most teams.
Michael huston
Guest
I think Lyon could maybe look at some midfield forward rotation. For example, Walters and Ballantyne are crafty and skillful. It would trip the opposition up trying to deal with them if they spent some time in the middle and the bigger bodies of Fyfe, Mundy, Barlow etc spent some time in the forward line. It just adds another dimension to their game. I feel like every Fremantle performance is virtually identical to the week before structurally.
Cavvy
Guest
Your hatred for hawthorn knows no bounds Gene
Don Freo
Guest
You obviously haven't been reading many conversations here. I am absolutely delighted with Ross and his nurturing of a football club. I love the chances of the boys in purple. Not much mileage in telling me to abandon such contentment. Those strange torrents of silliness do say a great deal about you. By the way, I love the Eagles too.
Youknowitmakessense
Guest
Don Lyon is a crap coach who burns out his guns and doesn't blood youngsters. He leaves a legacy of battling for 10 years. Hope you are prepared. Lyon is a good defensive coach. That's it. Freo are on the slide. There is no return. Maybe you should switch to West Coast. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Jakarta Jeff
Guest
Watching and reading from Jakarta obviously can bring a different perspective but your eliminating Essendon "the Bombers haven’t beaten any of the sides presently above them on the ladder beyond a gutsy (if fortunate) recent fall over the line against Port and a victory over North Melbourne way back in Round 1", seems to forget that both Geelong and Hawthorn only scraped home in the last minute against the Dons. Furthermore, it was a time when Essendon's forward line was totally disfunctional. Of late it seems to have more bite and with Watson, Daniher and Bellchambers on the sidelines appears to have plenty of upside coming in to the finals. Of course, they still have to even make the finals.
Don Freo
Guest
Youknowitmakessense, you might reconsider your moniker. Doesn't make much sense!
Don Freo
Guest
He's a lot like Crowley. Moderate ability but footy smarts that elite teams need. Part players who can be relied upon to play a part.
Don Freo
Guest
When Zac is not there (2 games) the defence can sometimes lose its bearings. I was at one game where McPharlin wasn't playing and an unchallenged goal went through. The whole defence moved around Zac and it was clear they were being led by Zac in analyzing what went wrong. Zac actually leads the organization down there. That's his great value. He knows when to destroy a ball to the ground, when there are crumbers to clear up or to the boundary if Sandi is nearby to give us first possession. Rarely , at Freo, has he had much kicked on him. It is his leadership, however, that he is most valued for.