Last week we saw a game that was built up for weeks as the potential match of the year.
Hawthorn versus Sydney put the two most recent premiers against one another in what was seen by many as a grand final preview.
The game didn’t disappoint. While Hawthorn came away with the points, plenty still believe that Sydney showed enough to hold on to premiership favouritism.
Hawthorn, though, reaffirmed their status as a definite contender and joined Sydney with an equal share of top spot, behind the Swans by just 0.8 per cent.
After that game many would have us believe that these two teams are the only two genuine threats for the flag. There is an elephant in the room, though, and it is a Cat, a Geelong Cat.
At the end of the first week of Round 18, people spoke of Geelong as the least worthy holder of second spot in history. Now, at the completion of Round 18, they have slipped to third, but it is due only to percentage. Like Sydney and Hawthorn, they also have a share of top spot.
Talking down the premiership chances of the Cats seems to have been a recurring theme of the AFL since they took home the flag in 2009, their second in three years.
2010 was supposed to be the end of their era. Challengers to their mantle, St. Kilda and Collingwood, had caught up to them. They had lost one or two of their premiership heroes, including their captain Tom Harley and the year was dominated by debate about the future of Gary Ablett.
Despite all that, Geelong still managed to finish the season in second spot with 17 wins. It was only a thrilling encounter with a controversial ending against the Saints that derailed their finals campaign.
Then, at the completion of the season, they lost Ablett to Gold Coast as well as their coach, Mark Thompson. If anything was to mark the end of an era, that was it. In 2011, though, there they were again, on top of the grand final dais.
2012 was their letdown year, following the retirement of another Premiership captain, Cameron Ling, as well as stalwarts such as Cameron Mooney and Brad Ottens. That year saw them finish the season sixth on the ladder, their lowest position since 2006, and exit the finals in week one.
Surely, ‘they’ said, the run is over.
The run wasn’t over, though. They backed up again last year with yet another top two finish, having won 18 games in the home-and-away season, eventually succumbing to Hawthorn in a classic preliminary final.
The point is, whether they do it convincingly or not, whether they show style or not, Geelong find a way to win. It is a sign of their strong culture that they make a habit of winning football matches. That is why they can never be written off.
So, why is it that they consistently do get written off? This season, for some part, it is the way they have lost. Their four losses this year have been by an average of 55 points. Even in a number of their wins they have been challenged in the second half. They have a tendency to take their foot off the pedal when it appears the game has been decided.
Another reason that they may be rated lowly is that before they had won their last four on the trot, they had lost four of their previous eight. This can be attributed in no small part to the form of captain, Joel Selwood. After starting the season in blistering form, the middle of the season saw him playing only bit parts in games.
It is plain now that he had been playing hurt. According to some reports he has spent a good deal of the season unable even to train during the week. Whatever the ailment, he seems to have recovered and is now back to top form. A Brownlow Medal may even be his at the end of the year.
With their captain back to his best, an elite midfield and one of the most reliable back lines in the competition, the only potential weak link is their forward line.
Tom Hawkins is in the best form he’s been for the last two years and injury free, but he needs more support. Shane Kersten looks a likely type, but is still young and has played only five games. He is a work in progress. Perhaps using Harry Taylor more in attack could be an option.
What the Cats do have in their favour is their undeniable will to win. That will put them in good stead in the last five games of the season. They still have fellow top four teams Fremantle and Hawthorn ahead of them. As well as that are a couple of danger games against North Melbourne and Carlton, two teams that gave them a scare earlier in the year.
If they maintain their winning habits, by the time they face Brisbane in Round 23 they should have top four sewn up and eyeing off a percentage booster to get them into the top two. Wherever they happen to finish, there is not a team that would be happy to play them in finals and old habits are hard to break, so don’t write them off.
Don Freo
Guest
Hmmm...I wonder if WCE can get Duncan to come home.
Shane
Guest
If only they were on the same team, right?
Shane
Guest
Haters gonna hate, bosk. Christensen, Caddy, Motlop, Duncan, Blicavs, Guthrie - wouldnt call them overrated. As for kpp, McIntosh, Simpson, Kersten, Vardy, Hawkins, Taylor, Rivers, Mackie - not much to worry about there. Murdoch, Bews,Horlin-smith all look the goods. Cant see us dropping out of the eight any time soon.
Don Freo
Guest
History is the great counterfeit.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
History hates Rossy Lyon Don.
Don Freo
Guest
The Geelong side playing in the last 5 weeks of the season and the finals is quite different from the Geelong side that just scraped through earlier in the year, contributing to the low percentage. They are more stable now with some of their game breakers having games beneath their belt. 'History' has never actually played in any of those games and, therefore, has had no bearing on results. History, in fact, is not even registered as an AFL player. History has as much impact on a result as a spectator has.
Cat
Roar Guru
that whole 'aura' thing is just media puff anyway, if it ever existed, and I don't believe in it, it would have ended back in 2012 when were 1 and done in finals.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
I agree Michael, Geelong's done a brilliant job of rebuilding on the hop while staying competitive. I suspect it has a lot to do with the veterans infusing the victory-at-all-costs mantra into the youngsters not to mention the rest of the competition maintaining a significant level of fear of the Cats - we saw the same thing with the Brisbane teams of the early 2000s, who maintained that 'unbeatable' aura long after the teams it was putting out on the park were actually strong enough to warrant it. You're right though, their lack of experience will be found out when the real stuff starts in September. Quite a few of their younger players look pretty suspect under pressure, but hey we expect that of players who've played under 100 games unless they happen to be named Chad Wingard or Cyril Rioli.
EddyJ
Guest
Anything can happen in sport, but history is not on Geelong's side in 2014. The last time a team won with such a low percentage was Carlton in 1945 (109%). I don't think Geelong's percentage will improve greatly on it's current 112%. The chances are pretty slim for them – first, they will need to finish in the top four (which seems likely), they would need to defeat three superior teams (likely to be Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle as the other top four finalists) in the finals and, if they lose the qualifiying final, possibly travel interstate for the preliminary final. They'd need many things to fall into place for them. You could correctly argue the case that it's all about what happens in the finals, rather than the home and away matches, but H&A still provides answers to questions asked of teams in the finals. Geelong's form has been quite unimpressive over the past two months – I realise they are travelling at 13–4 at the moment, but many of the wins have seen them scrape over the line over poor teams, and have been thrashed by Fremantle, Sydney and Port Adelaide. Their only win of great note against quality opposition was against Hawthorn, but that was many months ago. Anything is possible, and if Geelong manage to win the premiership this year, it will be one of the great premierships of all time... but, it's just not going to happen.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
......so you're basically inferring that Geelong's youngsters WILL in future years be able to match the output of those of Essendon circa 1993 & Hawthorn 2008, without actually having the guts to come out and say it? Perhaps if the Cats had a couple of up & coming young KPPs to rival Hird & Lloyd or Franklin & Roughead I might think differently but right now I'm not seeing it. You have Vardy who is injured and hasn't set the world on fire regardless, Kersten who has looked serviceable though hardly sensational, and Blicavs who has elite endurance and not a hell of a lot else. Perhaps none of this mattered when your midfield was still the best in the competition and Ottens was dominating in the ruck but we know that's no longer the case. As I've said before, Geelong would not have ditched Chapman, Podsiadly & Hunt had they thought they were still a genuine flag chance in 2014.
Pope Paul vii
Guest
We will see Gene, your boys go down Satdee night they'll be the white elephant in the room.
Mark Soong
Guest
If the cats can be at the top 4..earn a QF victory n a week rest heading to the PF..they have an even money chance to get intothe GF..hope last year experience will be handful to them..cheers
Deep Thinker
Guest
Good article. The only issue I have is that they can thump teams from here on in but will not get anywhere near the other 4 teams in percentage terms. Personally, I don't think that really matters to them at this stage - that horse has already bolted. They should beat North, Carlton and Brisbane. They really should beat Freo given it is at Simonds (no guarantee by any stretch). And then that leaves Hawthorn at the MCG. Assuming everything else goes to plan (especially the Freo game), the game against Hawthorn really will decide which team gets top 2. As a Cats fan, I hope the psychological edge will get them over the line. (If Sydney lose to Port in Adelaide then they could even end up top. )
Cat
Roar Guru
There was a time that some people thought Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Johnson weren't going to amount to much either. As DC says hindsight makes things so much easier.
Cat
Roar Guru
yes a run of 3 losses in a row to balance out the 3 wins they had in a row.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Ye of little faith Jacko. North are overdue for a run.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
North are just on the winning week of the two week cycle. The only streak they have where they beat anyone decent in both weeks was their only 3 game streak, Bulldogs (given for most), Power (only team Power lost to for most of first half of season) and Swans (warming up). Other than that they have beaten Richmond and St Kilda in their second win of a 'streak.' So, expect North to win this week based on their REAL streak: W-L-W-L-W-L...
Michael huston
Guest
So are Sydney and Hawthorn blooding youngsters. The only difference is Hawthorn didn't lose the likes of Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Cyril Rioli, David Hale, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall etc in the space of a few years, and the Swans didn't lose Adam Goodes, Josh Kennedy, Nick Malceski, Ben McGlynn, Kieren Jack, Mike Pyke etc all in the space of a few years. In fact both those teams have similar lists to the ones that won their first flags in 2008 and 2012 respectively. Which is why they are playing better than Geelong. People need to remember Geelong lost the likes of Gary Ablett, Joel Corey, Cameron Ling, Tom Harley, Steven King, Paul Chapman, Brad Ottens, Cameron Mooney, Matthew Scarlett, James Podsiadly, Josh Hunt and Darren Milburn in the space of a few years. You can't just dismiss all those players and say Geelong aren't great because they aren't dominating like they once did. New team, clean slate. Their third on the ladder with a young list. They've done an excellent job, but I think the tougher bodies of the Hawks and Swans will be too good come September.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Don't know you could describe them as the elephant. The camel maybe?
AB
Guest
As a Hawthorn supporter, I would never write off the Cats. They are still a big chance to win the flag. Hawks vs Geelong in round 22 will be a massive game. As would another Hawks vs Geelong grand final. Despite the perversity of the draw, the ladder looks about right to me. Sydney and Hawthorn virtually neck and neck, Geelong a short half head back, then a length to Freo, then another length to Port. As I said in another thread recently, although we're all talking about 2014 being the tightest season in years - which it seems to be at this stage - the top three hasn't really changed much from the past few seasons.