At the moment, it would appear Marcus Bontempelli is the clear frontrunner for the 2014 Rising Star.
The bookies have him as a $1.85 favourite, far ahead of equal second-placed favourites Tom Langdon and James Aish, who both sit on $6.
If you’ve been following Bontempelli since his Round 5 debut, it’s not that hard to see why.
He started relatively slow, copping the sub vest when the Dogs played Essendon in Round 7 and contributing without being spectacular against Carlton (Round 5) and the Suns (Round 10).
Since that Round 10 game he’s played every match. He has averaged 17.4 touches, 4.5 inside 50s, 3.4 tackles and close to three clearances and a goal a game. That holds him in good company as a first year player, but anyone who has watched him knows that the stats don’t tell the story.
His efforts to win the game against Melbourne off his own boot represented a huge change in the fortunes of Bontempelli, previously looked at as a bit of a project player. Even if he doesn’t win the Rising Star, he may well win goal of the year for his second of two goals that brought the Dogs home.
The versatility shown from the 192-centimetre player, who is comfortable in a variety of roles, has also been a boon for the Dogs given that their midfield bats deep.
Around that time period (Round 15), he was sublime against Geelong (Round 16) with his efforts around the ground, found the ball very well against the Pies (Round 13) and showed off his goal-kicking prowess with a monster against Port (Round 14).
He hasn’t played a poor game this season if you exclude the match with the green vest. But is a four-block game of fantastic performances surrounded by performances that are on par with other contenders enough to win the award?
The Rising Star committee love to keep their nominations fairly well spread, and at times seemingly give them out at random – see Jake Stringer missing out after nine goals in two matches. But the method to the occasional madness seems to be you either play a massive game or we reward someone based on consistent form (cases like Stringer being the exception).
Does this apply to the award itself? Let’s look at the number of regular season games played by the eventual winners in the past decade.
Jaeger O’Meara – 22
Daniel Talia – 22
Dyson Heppell – 22
Daniel Hannebery – 19
Daniel Rich – 22
Rhys Palmer – 20
Joel Selwood – 18
Danyle Pearce – 22
Brett Deledio – 22
Jared Rivers – 21
That’s an average of 21 games per season and points to a large body of work being preferred by the panel.
Kade Kolodjashnij looks set to return against Carlton after a two-week layoff, while the highly touted and impressive Luke Dunstan will sadly miss the rest of the season.
If we assume the rest of the favourites play the remaining four games, then Luke McDonald (North Melbourne), James Aish and Lewis Taylor (Brisbane Lions), Tom Langdon (Collingwood), Harry Cunningham (Sydney Swans), Jonathon Patton (Greater Western Sydney) and Jarman Impey (Port Adelaide) will reach or pass that 21 game threshold.
Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast), Josh Kelly and Sam Frost (GWS), Zach Merrett (Essendon), Jack Billings (St Kilda), Jake Lloyd (Swans), Marco Paparone (Lions), Sean Lemmens (Gold Coast), Stringer (Western Bulldogs), Troy Menzel (Carlton) and Joe Daniher (Essendon) will reach or pass the 18 game mark Joel Selwood won the award with in 2007.
The only nominees to date not mentioned in that above pack, excluding the aforementioned Dunstan, are Dylan Buckley (Carlton), Matt Crouch (Adelaide), Nathan Hrovat (Bulldogs), Darcy Gardiner (Lions) and… Marcus Bontempelli.
Bontempelli has played 12 games to date and should push that up to 16 by the end of the year.
So can Bontempelli buck the trend? Many people seem to think so and there’s no doubting he’s the favourite in the eye of the general public going into the last four games of the season.
When Selwood won in 2007, that Geelong side went on to win the premiership and he was a valuable contributor. For Bontempelli to win with two less games played, his influence on his side would either have to be greater, or the field much weaker. Given the award has looked like a tussle for weeks, it’s hard to argue the latter.
If he produces another four games like he did from rounds 13-16, it’d make it easier to ignore the games played precedent set over the past decade. Despite the name, it’s not about who will have the best season in a few years. It’s about who had the best season when they were eligible.
So is the favouritism unwarranted?
This is not a comment on Bontempelli’s ability. In my mind there’s no doubt he’ll be a very good player for the Bulldogs going forward and there’s plenty to be excited about regardless of whether he wins an award or not.
But despite the odds and media talk, the past seems to indicate that while Bontempelli should make the top five and has no doubt been a revelation, he won’t win the Rising Star in 2014.
At least without signifying a change in how much the weighting individual games have on the voting process.
Me Too
Guest
I wonder if missing the last three games means he is out of contention. Seemed the best of them for most of the season.
Cat
Roar Guru
I's say change it to an under 50 games AA team rather than by age, this way late bloomers and mature age recruits have a shot. Could make for a good article for someone to write.
Cat
Roar Guru
They should simplify it, give the nomination to the best game of the week by any eligible player. The winner would be whomever got the most nominations. In the event of a tie then the panel can go back and decide who was better over the entire season.
Paul
Guest
Yeah, you need a thick skin if you're putting your opinions up here. Keep up the good work.
Dylan Toune
Roar Guru
Sorry Paul - shouldn't always take comments on articles I write as directed at me! It was ridiculous but here's hoping he gets rewarded in the last four rounds.
Paul
Guest
Hey Dylan, yes you certainly addressed the Stringer issue. I was just highlighting further how ridiculous it was that he wasn't nominated. Here's hoping Bonts does buck the trend.
TomC
Roar Guru
Darcy Gardiner probably qualifies as a KPP. But it's a very good point, and it cuts to what the purpose of the rising star award really is. It'd be nice to acknowledge developing KPPs in a seperate way. Maybe we need a u21 All Australian team.
dms1972
Guest
In my opinion, having played 18-22 games should not even be a factor when it comes to deciding the winner. The year Danyle Pearce won the award, Marc Murphy was the obvious standout rising star but because he did his shoulder after about 12 games he suffered in the voting. Obviously you need a reasonable number of games to refer to as clearly one or two games isn't enough to make a firm judgement on a player's future impact on the game. There have been numerous players who have starred in their first few games and then disappeared into oblivion a few years later. But I think 12 games is enough to get some idea of how good a player might be. If Bontempelli were to get injured this week and miss the rest of the year, he has done enough to be considered a worthy winner. Unfortunately, as with the Brownlow, your chances of success are greater if you're a midfield type player. Look at this year's nominations; of the 19 nominated so far only two are key position players; Joe Daniher and Jon Patton. It's obvious that both Daniher and Patton are going to be extremely good players, most likely stars, but what are their chances of winning the Rising Star award this year? Obviously, most big men take longer to develop so, by the time they're ready to make a genuine impact on a consistent basis, they're ineligible to win. Daniel Talia won a couple of years ago and, before him, Nick Riewoldt, Justin Koschitzke and Nick Holland, but the majority of winners and nominations are midfielders or flankers. No disrespect to Brett Deledio (2005 winner), he is a very, very good player, but who would you rather in your team; Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead, Travis Cloke or Brett Deledio?
Dylan Toune
Roar Guru
I know I rambled a bit, but I did address your second point in the article: "The Rising Star committee love to keep their nominations fairly well spread, and at times seemingly give them out at random – see Jake Stringer missing out after nine goals in two matches. But the method to the occasional madness seems to be you either play a massive game or we reward someone based on consistent form (cases like Stringer being the exception)." I was trying to differentiate between what the criteria for the nominations (who knows, in short) and the actual award (which looks like it leans towards playing a large portion of the season). Stringer should 100% have been nominated and he was robbed, I feel like the committee crapped themselves a bit when they realised that Menzel was Carlton's leading goalkicker and hadn't yet been nominated. I'd be happy for Bontempelli to win the award, I was more just trying to ascertain any trends that I could from previous years. If he does win it'll certainly represent change but I can't say he'd be undeserving, assuming his form keeps up for the last four games.
Paul
Guest
Bontempelli has shown that he has the makings of being an out and out A grader with some brilliant efforts. The other contenders have shown consistency by playing so many games and look to be very good footballers, but Bontempelli looks to be one out of the box. Stringer didn't get a nom after a top 4 goal effort against the Dees then a real breakout 5 goals against the Bombres. Meanwhile Troy Menzel got a nom after 9 possessions, 2 goals and going off early with an injury. The week before Menzel had 5 possessions against the Pies, so not sure about the reward for consistency. As for Bontempelli's goal of the year effort. I'm pretty sure that I heard Gerald Whateley say on 360 that Matt White had settled it with his running goal against the Tigers. Someone said something similar on Talking Footy. Yes, White's was a pretty good goal, but he burnt off a slow coach in Morris ran into the 50 then kicked a straight forward goal. Meanwhile Bonts is hemmed in on the boundary, strips Frawley twice, evades at least 3 tackles and kicks the miraculous goal. No contest in my opinion. In fact I think that Josh Jenkins' goal from the centre bounce was better than White's.
TomC
Roar Guru
A real shame about Dunstan. Would have been a deserving winner. Still would be. Saints fans could do with a fillup. I have no idea what the criteria are for the rising star. Once it seemed to be the best performed of the eligible players. Last year one of the voting panel gave Brodie Grundy two votes after seven okay games. So who knows? Ultimately I suppose it's just a way of recognising talented young players. As a Brisbane fan, I have to say that Aish really shouldn't be one of the leading contenders. Good player, but hasn't had the year that Dunstan, Bontempelli or his teammate Taylor have had. I really don't think Langdon should be a leading contender either. Great at taking defensive marks. Absolutely shocking at actually kicking the ball.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Bontempelli winning it will make up for Libba not even earning a nomination in his debut year when he clearly killed it.
mindquad
Roar Rookie
Aish or Taylor from the Lions have been the most consistently performed best first-year players this season. I'd be thinking one of them will win it.