The final leg of the Coleman race is heating up

By Nick / Roar Guru

With just three rounds to go, the competition for the Coleman medal is as fierce as it has been for several seasons. Four players sit within three goals, while a couple more are lurking close behind.

Sure, it’s not a like classic Coleman race of years gone by when the season would have Tony Lockett, Gary Ablett Snr. and Jason Dunstall going for it, (or even in ’08 when Lance Franklin and Brendan Fevola had a shootout for 100 goals) and it does make you shudder to know that the Coleman medallist, again, is going to win it on less than 70 goals.

Still, a winner needs to be found, and there are four players who are the frontrunners at this stage, plus couple of dark horses who could crash the party.

Lets have a quick analysis of the field

The Front Runners
1. Jarryd Roughead (55 goals)
The current leader. He has come into some good form in the past weeks, and kicked five goals against Melbourne to move into front spot.

He would be the odds-on favourite if not for the fact that he will be reading a good book at the same time his mates are hopping on a plane to Perth after being reported for tripping Melbourne’s Dom Tyson.

In a race this tight, that could be a costly missed game. He will finish off with games against the Cats and the Magpies, so no easy goals will be found for him there. Still, he holds a couple of aces with a two goal lead… for now

Chance for the Coleman: 7/10

2. Jay Schulz (53 goals)
The former leader. The man who after half way many thought he was going to push on. He was the most accurate in the competition for the first half of the season, but rather reflective of his teams fortunes of late, he has gone cold of late.

He went goalless on the weekend against the swans (obviously leaving his goal kicking boots in the sheds for his behind boots).

He appears to be fading fast, but unlike Roughhead, should play all three remaining games. He needs to cash in against a Ablett-less Suns and the Blues as Goals will be hard to come by against Fremantle.

Chance for the Coleman: 6/10

3. Lance Franklin (52 goals)
A shocking start to the year meant Buddy has had to play catch up. But his form has been terrific for the past ten weeks and he is now well and truly in the hunt.

He would arguably be in the lead if he didn’t have to sit out the game against the Bombers. Still, he is pencilled in to play the next three games and of the front runners has the easiest draw.

Expect him to cash in against the Saints and the Bulldogs. He might struggle against the Tigers at ANZ, but he really must be considered the favourite now. For his sake, he will want to keep the behind boots in the sheds.

Chance for the Coleman: 9/10

4. Tom Hawkins (52 goals)
Always lurking, but a man who can be a bit too hot and cold for bona fide favouritism.

Three goals behind Roughead, and has an alright draw on the run home.

He should find goals against the Blues and the Lions, and has good form against the Hawks. Don’t discount this man, but might just be shading Buddy for 2014.

Chance for the Coleman: 8/10

The Dark Horses
Jack Riewoldt (48 goals)
Seven goals behind, but with some games that he’ll be competitive in.

Normally, you’d say he is too far behind to be included, but he is the type of guy who can pull eight goals out of his pocket to bring himself right up in contention.

Probably has left his run too late though.

Chance for the Coleman: 6.5/10

Josh Kennedy (46 goals)
Again, the same as Riewoldt. Nine goals behind is a bit of an ask. Though stranger things have happened…

Chance for the Coleman: 6/10

My tip: Buddy should get it, and finish with 68 goals. A fair way short of the glory days.

Who is your tip to take home the 2014 Coleman Medal?

The Crowd Says:

2014-08-12T08:58:48+00:00

Cat

Roar Guru


Going on history Hawkins is likely to kick somewhere between 7-12 more goals at most in the remaining 3 games ... is that enough when Franklin who is known for kicking bags, has a lead and playing even softer teams? I don't think so. I'd love to be wrong though.

2014-08-12T07:25:08+00:00

Jack Smith

Roar Guru


Franklin in clearly the man as the other two frontrunenrs of Roghead and Hawkins have a hard game (also Roughead misses so...) Schultz is still in the running and may well hold on. Who knows. Good to have a contest in the award though unlike some other seasons. One award that is cleanly cut too!

2014-08-12T06:00:12+00:00

Connor

Guest


but he has 3 great chances to finish the H and A season strongly. Hopefully plays well against Carlton, will smash his bunny team and plays Brisbane who he should be able to get hold of against

2014-08-12T04:03:23+00:00

Nick Inatey

Guest


Shock. I agree.

2014-08-12T01:29:57+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Factor in 18 more goals from Ballas (6 goals a game)...Coleman!!! Ballas to catch Bruest, anyone? He doesn't have Roughie and Gunston to feed off. I'd actually argue for Hawkins to top the Coleman.

2014-08-12T01:08:20+00:00

Cat

Roar Guru


I don't think Hawkins has a chance really, while very consistent he doesn't kick the big bags the others do.

2014-08-12T00:15:04+00:00

Bill

Guest


Its an out of 10 ranking, not a probablilty chart mate. If it would help you though Frankin 2/1, Hawkins 4/1, Roughead 5/1, Schultz 6/1, Riewoldt 10/1, Kennedy 14/1 Or, are you not satisfied as I failed to consult Tom Waterhouse in properly organising the odds. Pedant.

2014-08-11T23:00:13+00:00

Luke

Guest


Clearly the author can't do math. How can you have two people (let alone six) at a greater than 50% to win one award? I know they can share it but that's getting pedantic.

2014-08-11T20:44:35+00:00

Michael huston

Guest


Either Buddy, Roughead or Hawkins deserve it, and probably will get it, but it's hard to determine who because they all play one game further up the ground and the next rooted in the forward 50. I think the winner would be whoever spends most time/gets the most ball in the forward 50, so I'd guess at Franklin simply because of his easier opponents. Forwards have had field days against the Bulldogs and Saints, two teams Buddy has coming up, but Hawkins and Roughead actually look more dangerous in the contest. If Port can find their best form, Schulz may be a dark horse but he benefitted from the shaky start to the other three and now that they're all firing, I don't think he's quite as good. I've got Roughead and Franklin in the two key forward positions in my All Australian and Hawkins on the interchange, so it's between those three IMO.

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