The side that the All Blacks management have chosen for the first Bledisloe match on Saturday looks like a ‘steady hand on the tiller’ selection with no surprises and no concerns about the opposition. The All Blacks expect to win.
They are using five Crusader forwards as run-ons – Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock and Wyatt Crockett.
There are some notable changes however, to the Crusaders pack with Jerome Kaino replacing Matt Todd, Brodie Retallick replacing Dominic Bird, and Dan Coles replacing Cory Flynn.
The interesting question is how much better will this pack be than the Crusaders? Retallick is big plus over Dominic Bird, and Coles brings a higher work-rate than Corey Flynn. Kaino is there to get over the gain line around the ruck area, plus some big defence. Compared to Todd, though, he lacks work rate, and consistency, based on Super Rugby form.
Also, Richie McCaw is now cast once more as an open-side breakaway.
This may indicate a slightly different emphasis from the All Blacks, with a more forward-oriented, tight, set-piece focused game-plan, with forward passing interchanges up the middle. Savea will probably be used one-off the ruck to punch holes. Out wide, turnover ball may be a risk, with the pack chosen, so any risks taken may only eventuate from scoreboard pressure.
This is probably positive news for the Wallabies, because McKenzie can devise tactics to counter those plans, as long as the Wallaby set-piece can deliver the goods. It will be at the set-piece that the All Blacks will hope to derail the Wallaby effort and mount their unrelenting pressure, and the referee will be regularly under pressure from Read to support their cause, whether justified or not.
Jaco Peiper is the referee, and he has had difficulty fending off Read in the past. Crockett will be using his boring-in tactics on Kepu, and would be penalised by some referees, yet rewarded by others. The pressure on Peiper will be enormous.
The Wallabies backs have the potential to spring surprises on the All Blacks given good, fast go-forward ball. The All Blacks, on the other hand, have tried to shore-up defensive deficiencies by leaving Smith at fullback in place of Dagg, but Smith on the wing in place of Corey Jane would have offered more in attack.
Once again, the Wallabies can take heart from the All Blacks selections, because it seems the emphasis is on countering perceived Wallaby strengths, rather than concentrating on their own game.
As usual, the match will be won in the forwards, so the performance of Nathan Charles, Simmons, Carter and Fardy will be crucial. Fardy needs to step up to reprise his 2013 late-season form, but both he and Carter are on the rise as tough uncompromising forwards. Both can break the gain-line and deliver offloads and the Wallabies will need that to happen.
Can Charles step up as well? Super Rugby form says he probably can, but his big Test looms. Simmons has to simply play his best game ever in the tight, as well as handle the lineouts successfully. The remainder of the pack performed extremely well for the Waratahs and will be keen to lift off that base for the Wallabies. The Wallabies are not out of this forward contest, and may even surprise.
If so, then the McKenzie experiment with Beale at flyhalf can unfold, and the winning or losing of the match probably will rest there. Hopefully the Wallabies will not have to rely on a last-minute penalty from a difficult position to win.
Firstxv
Guest
thats because 50,000 odd have probably died since we did lose one...
bigbaz
Roar Guru
I know I know I know Suzy, we are a deluded mob, thinking we know as much as SAs or Kiwis. Thank god we are awash with you lot helping our poor poor country find a better way. With your continued help I'm sure we will get their in the end. Please keep monitoring our sports writers and council them about writing to their audience, they really should be aware that there are about 220 countries in the world and all could have a no 7 who is better than Hooper.There is an argument here as to whether Hooper is even the best 7 in our country, I'm sure you will be able to sort us out there.
Coconut
Guest
Coconut
Guest
Its fine, Pirates Rugby, you may proceed. As you were. We just had to clear the message and intent through our New Zealand barracking committee to see whether it met the relevant criteria to qualify as a barrack. It appears to have done so, so discussion may continue. As you would appreciate, there is a very fine line between 'talking it up', and 'barracking', so clearly all Aussie comments and articles will naturally be subject to a little more scrutiny in this regard.
Coconut
Guest
"There own Webb sites...." was that a clever pun?? If so, then I would have thought AB supporters had every right to make comment.
Coconut
Guest
Rou 'waaa' an.....
Suzy Poison
Guest
True but to even think that Hooper is the best in the world in his position is deluded. But it's not only Fitzsimons who thinks that, a number of others have perpetuated this myth. That's mostly because Australian sports writers are very locally focused and know nothing about the world game. Perhaps if they had watched the Heineken Cup final, they would have seen some true backrow talent on offer. Players like Juan Smith, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Steffon Armitage, Jacques Burger or Billy Vunipola. All who in all in my humble opinion are better loose forwards than Hooper. And that's not counting on one Richie MacCaw or Frans Louw.
AlsBoyce
Roar Guru
Truth and beauty are in the eye of the beholder. Without trumpeting it, the Wallabies think they can win , if they do what they think they have to do. They may get it right. They may get it wrong. The All Blacks know they're going to win, because they have more-or-less the same team that have done it 3 times in 2013 and have 17 on the trot. Statistics are a wonderful thing. As is humilty. Life goes on and teams change quite subtly mostly, but sometimes the turnaround can be faster. When this happens, it is mostly due to the magic combination of players emerging or achieving new heights, a coach with skills, vision and superior man-management, and a raw hunger and confidence. That happened for the Waratahs this year, and is also a possibilty for the Wallabies.
PiratesRugby
Guest
The first test against France was pretty good. The game against Wales last year was alright. The last test against the ABs last year was promising. The first thing is that there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any tier 1 team can beat any other on their day. Second is that the WB squad has had internal issues for the previous 3 or 4 years. These issues have been largely sorted. Third, the WBs are playing with confidence in their gameplan. Fourth, there have been promising signs in the s15. Finally, fans are allowed to barrack for their team. Surely?
PiratesRugby
Guest
You mean you couldn't find a kiwi site in 7 years?
MIKE
Guest
ok I admit, I may have miss-spoke. But I have read in the press from ex-wallabies,pulver and even the coach say as much. I understand that you have got to have confidence going into a match, but I have not seen more than one game where they have played well and comfortably well. Even if they did win, they still played pretty poorly. I'm just curious as to what evidence they are basing this on.
44bottles
Roar Guru
Luring all the unsuspecting kiwi's to his lair in the forest.
bigbaz
Roar Guru
Didn't miss the point at all.The simple fact is that he could hardly be accused of being confident of a win Please quote one Wallaby being overly confident,assuming you would agree that anyone playing got their country should have a degree of confidence no matter who they are playing or are you just another Aussie basher?
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I've been on this site for seven years and I don't have a clue who you are.
MIKE
Guest
I think you missed the point of his article. Its supposed to put a hoodoo on the All Blacks giving the advantage to the Wallabies. But I am curious, in the last 7 wins, did any of those games show how much the Wallabies have progressed their game, to the point of matching it with the All Blacks. From what I saw, the Wallabies didn't offer too much. What makes the Wallabies so confident they can win?
Insomnia
Guest
'We dun takea two cindely to dem types arownda hear!' We orda edukate dem keewees, ant dat rite der bigbaz.
moaman
Guest
{"There country doesn’t seemed to have progressed enough to have there own Webb sites so they have to pollute ours ."} You are right,of course,Bigbaz.I aspire to reach the obviously high level your post shows you have achieved. Meanwhile,most of us here come to talk rugby-irrespective of where we call 'home'. That's why we like the Roar.
bigbaz
Roar Guru
Fitzsimons predicted today that the ABs would win by 60.hardly talking us up.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
44, the Pied Piper is playing his tune..
Rugby Tragic
Guest
OJ, Jane is about to remind them! I am a huge fan of his fend. He may not be the fastest Winger in the world but he has plenty of other qualities.