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The side that the All Blacks management have chosen for the first Bledisloe match on Saturday looks like a ‘steady hand on the tiller’ selection with no surprises and no concerns about the opposition. The All Blacks expect to win.
They are using five Crusader forwards as run-ons – Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock and Wyatt Crockett.
There are some notable changes however, to the Crusaders pack with Jerome Kaino replacing Matt Todd, Brodie Retallick replacing Dominic Bird, and Dan Coles replacing Cory Flynn.
The interesting question is how much better will this pack be than the Crusaders? Retallick is big plus over Dominic Bird, and Coles brings a higher work-rate than Corey Flynn. Kaino is there to get over the gain line around the ruck area, plus some big defence. Compared to Todd, though, he lacks work rate, and consistency, based on Super Rugby form.
Also, Richie McCaw is now cast once more as an open-side breakaway.
This may indicate a slightly different emphasis from the All Blacks, with a more forward-oriented, tight, set-piece focused game-plan, with forward passing interchanges up the middle. Savea will probably be used one-off the ruck to punch holes. Out wide, turnover ball may be a risk, with the pack chosen, so any risks taken may only eventuate from scoreboard pressure.
This is probably positive news for the Wallabies, because McKenzie can devise tactics to counter those plans, as long as the Wallaby set-piece can deliver the goods. It will be at the set-piece that the All Blacks will hope to derail the Wallaby effort and mount their unrelenting pressure, and the referee will be regularly under pressure from Read to support their cause, whether justified or not.
Jaco Peiper is the referee, and he has had difficulty fending off Read in the past. Crockett will be using his boring-in tactics on Kepu, and would be penalised by some referees, yet rewarded by others. The pressure on Peiper will be enormous.
The Wallabies backs have the potential to spring surprises on the All Blacks given good, fast go-forward ball. The All Blacks, on the other hand, have tried to shore-up defensive deficiencies by leaving Smith at fullback in place of Dagg, but Smith on the wing in place of Corey Jane would have offered more in attack.
Once again, the Wallabies can take heart from the All Blacks selections, because it seems the emphasis is on countering perceived Wallaby strengths, rather than concentrating on their own game.
As usual, the match will be won in the forwards, so the performance of Nathan Charles, Simmons, Carter and Fardy will be crucial. Fardy needs to step up to reprise his 2013 late-season form, but both he and Carter are on the rise as tough uncompromising forwards. Both can break the gain-line and deliver offloads and the Wallabies will need that to happen.
Can Charles step up as well? Super Rugby form says he probably can, but his big Test looms. Simmons has to simply play his best game ever in the tight, as well as handle the lineouts successfully. The remainder of the pack performed extremely well for the Waratahs and will be keen to lift off that base for the Wallabies. The Wallabies are not out of this forward contest, and may even surprise.
If so, then the McKenzie experiment with Beale at flyhalf can unfold, and the winning or losing of the match probably will rest there. Hopefully the Wallabies will not have to rely on a last-minute penalty from a difficult position to win.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.