With Round 20 officially in the history books, there are seven key areas which may become the talking points of the season.
7. Fremantle does not have a clutch moment player
While the David Mundy final kick on goal from Saturday night’s instant classic has been well discussed, many don’t realise that Mundy did not want the game winning moment.
On further analysis it could be argued that no Fremantle player would have kicked that goal. Matt Pavlich seems to be crueled by the post in clutch moments, Nat Fyfe can spray long shots, Hayden Ballantyne would have liked the moment but a 50-metre kick is beyond him. Stephen Hill is not as strong on the set shot.
Perhaps the guy who would have had the power of leg and the temperament to kick the goal in that moment was Ryan Crowley. In a clutch final perhaps it is not just two goals that Fremantle are missing, but the guy that will stand up where it counts.
6. Essendon have lost the free-kick count the last two weeks
While Essendon is again being dominated by the off field story of ASADA, an on-field element that has been missed is a lack of consistency from the umpires. In their past two losses, Essendon have been well behind in the free-kick count.
In a world that is ruled by conspiracy theories, it is perhaps surprising that one conspiracy that has not come out; is the AFL not wanting Essendon in the finals again in 2014. One way that the AFL can slightly sway a game is with the umpires whistle. Watch closely the free kick count against West Coast this week and Gold Coast the week after.
Typically travelling teams to Melbourne don’t fare well with the whistle. This may be the exception.
5. Port Adelaide could still be playing for fourth in Round 23
As disappointing as Port Adelaide has been in the past six weeks and as frustrating as it has been for their fans to see them slip from top spot, if results go as expected they will still be playing for fourth spot in Round 23 against Fremantle.
That is both encouraging for Port Adelaide and frightening for Fremantle. Both these clubs know that their cross town rivals are circling the eight and fourth spot might be as important for these two clubs than any other.
With two very winnable games to come, expect 1.10pm WST on August 30 to be where fourth place is decided.
4. Harry Cunningham is the only rising star that is playing a significant role in games that matter
While Marcus Bontempelli is the overwhelming favourite to win the rising star and James Aish, Lewis Taylor, Luke Dunstan, Jake Stringer and Jon Patton are all being discussed among the possibles for this award, one player that is being criminally underrated is Cunningham.
Cunningham has played every match for Sydney this year and has been a solid performer in every game. On top he has had two or three pivotal games with his three goals against Port Adelaide on Saturday as big a difference maker as any in that game. That Cunningham is having key contributions in a game between two top four contenders should be being considered far more impressive than games that those in lowly rated teams have had.
For that reason it would be controversial but you could argue that based on importance Cunningham, Zac Merrett and Luke McDonald all should be considered in the top five rising stars for this year as opposed to the bookies favourites.
3. The Bulldogs are still one win behind last year’s total
Even with their seventh win against St Kilda at the weekend, Western are still one win behind last year’s season total. As much as the some of the youth for Western does look promising, this is a group that is stagnating, not improving as a typical form line would suggest.
Given they are likely to win only one more game, against GWS in Round 23, the analysis of Western needs to be amended. This is a team that won eight games last year and will likely win eight games this year. They are a long way from being the threat that is being discussed and the list should be ready to make a move.
2. Hope is back at Carlton for 2015
Again it is easy to get swept up in the emotion and excitement that Chris Judd is going to play on in 2015. However every action has a reaction. Judd deciding to go was a reaction to budding hype that Carlton may be able to have a swift turnaround in 2015. A lot has gone against Carlton this year and it appears on the surface that the wheel may be turning towards Carlton if the last month is to go off.
They are going to be gifted a dream fixture in 2015 and Judd obviously sees this and believes that Carlton could be finals bound next year. You know Judd wants to go out in a finals game, not a meandering Round 23 clash.
1. Tom Rockliff’s season is among the most overrated in history
For all of the individual possession tallies that Rockliff has racked up, it has been practically for nothing. Opposition coaches clearly do not rate Rockliff as is evidenced by his poor performance in the AFLCA votes and the lack of a tag that he is getting despite big individual numbers.
Rockliff is the head of a new wave of players that are being overrated by fantasy players and in turn by the football public in general who look at his stat line on a Monday and think that helping their fantasy team means being a good AFL player. Would love to sit down with a Rockliff fan and highlight his shortcomings on defence and in transition. Don’t believe the hype. Rockliff is still a long way from being regarded as an elite AFL midfielder.
Nick
Guest
She's right, that is upsetting.
mattyb
Guest
I'm thinking Olivia means we must be crying that we have to build a young list within the constraints of the salary cap without cola and how we need to nurture a key forward without buying a couple from other clubs with all the afl's free cash.
Nick
Guest
Is crying that thing you do when your mouth makes that "ha ha" sound and you feel really good? If so, yes, I've been crying a whole lot.
mattyb
Guest
Thats a great idea Paul.footscray would make a lot of people happy and if anyone needs to shorten it they could just say the scrays.sounds a lot better than western.anyhow there is western Sydney now so the crazy reasons for changing have kinda gone down the drain.Time to go the full circle and bring back footscray before some bright spark tries to name our mascot Westy."So who's the dog barracks for?gws,the eagles or you guys"
berrlins
Roar Pro
Saying the bulldogs haven't really progressed because they most likely will end up on the same wins is ridiculous, the competitiveness is there just not for four quarters yet due to a young team being on the park.
Paul
Guest
Hi Peter, be very careful you're picking a weeping sore there. Our full name of course is Footscray Football Club Ltd trading as Western Bulldogs. So........we could just call us Footscray. That would make lots of people very happy.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Funny you mention the Western thing. I made a comment the other day calling the Bulldogs Western. It was kind of tongue in cheek. You can shortern every other club to there suburb/town/city, except for West Coast (huh, the whole West Coast...really?) or Western (where is that?) or Greater Western Sydney (at least it is still the greater west of Sydney) For every other club it makes sense when you drop the mascot....Sydney, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Richmond, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Port Adealide....you get my drift.
Michael huston
Guest
It was a good kick. Given that actual forwards who are paid to kick gosls regularly miss shots like that, I'd say Mundy shouldn't hang his head in shame. With the pressure he was under and the inaccuracy of that particular game, it was one of the more difficult kicks.
TomC
Roar Guru
Slightly disappointing that Cameron hasn't responded to any of the comments. He's made some big calls in the article.
Mac
Guest
The fact that opposition coaches would rather tag Pearce Hanley definitely supports your argument. However I liken him to a poor man's Gary Ablett back in the first couple of years with the Suns, who only truly started to flourish once his team mates started to catch up to his pace. I don't think Rocky will ever be a directly damaging player but I think you're underselling his body of work despite his team's position.
mlesliec
Guest
a man kicks for goal and misses, yet you describe it as a damn good kick, noting else was read because that one statement summed up your lack of understanding of football,
Ando
Guest
And no umpire worth anything could not have called Buddy's push last Saturday as anything but a free kick. They made a mistake, it happens. The author's point about the free kick counts in total being lower is a much more valid point than one free kick paid in one game 4 weeks or so ago, and even that argument is shaky.
mattyb
Guest
Although I did wish to win a couple more games this year,footscrays season this year is a huge improvement on last.Much more competitive in the game's we have lost.Next year or the one after is where we will make the climb.As for the tears and crying?Our 'young' list is just fine and with plenty of learning still to be come.Yes there is tears of joy out west,we'll be back to making prelims in no time.
Gecko
Guest
Cameron I hope you make this a weekly article. Last week's article had some fresh interpretations and so does this one. Though I gotta agree with Nick and Paul that the Doggies' rebuild shows real progress, despite what the win-loss ratio might say.
Ryan
Guest
Despite comments here from dogs supporters about how excited they are, i share your concerns for the Bulldogs. Its not just that they havent improved this year, its that the state of the list which is most concerning. Boyd 32, Cooney 29, Griffen 28, Minson 30, Morris 31, Picken 28, Murphy 32. I would argue that those 7 players are often up there in there most important. With the exception of Griffen, none of them may be there when they are making a serious run at the finals. While they have some players of extraordinary talent such as Bontempelli and Macrae; along with the like of Libba, Daulhaus, Stringer etc, there problem is still the same; key position players. They seem overflowing with young talented midfielders/half-forwards and absolutely bare of any really promising young defenders or big forwards. I agree, time for the list to make a move. Bulldogs will have to get inventive to get what they need. Griffen + pick for Boyd/Patton? Throw together a few peices to try to get Adelaide to bite and get Talia to come play with his brother? Young Mid/Cooney + pick for Darling? etc. If they sit around and keep taking kids in the draft, the generation about retires and they pretty much stay the same.
Paul
Guest
Hey Olivia, as a Dog's supporter the only crying I feel like doing is with excitement. Haven't you been watching the development of our list. We also have Rising Star noms coming out of our ears. Six in the last 3 years and the anomaly of Libba not even getting one.
Cat
Roar Guru
"I’d take Tommy Rockliff in a heartbeat" So would every team, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been overrated by the media and fans. A player can still be very very good and overrated.
Paul
Guest
The Dogs are so far ahead of Carlton in their rebuild it's not funny. And who is this "Western" that people keep writing about, it's the Western Bulldogs. I'd take Tommy Rockliff in a heartbeat.
mindquad
Roar Rookie
The comment about Rockliff highlights a weird type of reverse backlash going on here, that somehow "big stats" are evidence of a player being overrated and that any tangible value that player has during a game gets eliminated on the basis that it's all "just numbers", as though that is now a crime and only the subject astheticism of football matters. It's the type of argumen that suggests Rockliff's 40+ possession game is, by definition, neither as useful nor pleasing as 15 possesions for, say, Cyril Rioli. If Rockliff makes all-Australian this year, as is being suggested by many, can we expect a retraction of this ridiculous argument?
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
Great article Cameron. I agree totally with your assessments on Rockliff and Cunningham, Fremantle's defence is certainly an Achilles heel and whilst it's a bit harsh to intimate even indirectly that Mundy choked, I take your point; at my beloved Swans I can think of six players I would have handed the ball to in that situation with confidence but Fremantle lacks even one I'd rate better than even odds from the 50 metres. As for the others, I think the AFL wishes Essendon would just quietly fade away, Carlton is, with North, the leagues Jeckyl/Hyde and the Bulldogs look so good on paper yet so ordinary in action that their supporters must want to cry. The mantle of most overrated had to go to Collingwood though, and it is SO sweet to write that.