Be patient with the Pies, their time will come

By Michael Pepicelli / Roar Pro

Premiers, runners up, fourth, eighth. Collingwood’s final ladder positions over the last four years had appeared to be consistent with that of a team on a downward trajectory.

The early parts of season 2014 suggested that the Pies were ready to once again establish themselves as one of the best teams in the competition. After Round 12, they could be found in their customary perch in the top four.

However, after losing six of their last eight games, they are now positioned in ninth and are facing a huge struggle to stay in the race for September.

Collingwood’s form over the last two months has led even the most ardent of Pies fans to question the direction of the club and to reluctantly question the coaching of favourite son Nathan Buckley.

The most frequent criticism of Buckley sounds something like this, ‘He’s inherited one of the youngest premiership winning lists of all time and in three years he’s turned it into one that can’t even get to the finals.’

What people in this camp neglect to mention is the fact that Collingwood’s current list is merely a shell of the list left behind by Mick Malthouse after the 2011 season.

The Pies have made thirty-four changes to their list since the end of 2011, when Buckley took over as senior coach. Only the Demons have also made more than thirty list changes in this time period, and not even they have made as many changes as the Pies.

No need to explain how terrible Melbourne has been over this period.

It is highly unusual for a club to undergo this kind of radical list overhaul while remaining in finals contention. Such a degree of list turnover is generally exclusively prevalent in teams at the bottom of the ladder.

The most recurrent criticism of Buckley is also the major reason why we should be patient with Collingwood – Buckley inherited his list, he didn’t choose it. Bucks has been at the helm for almost three years now, but only at the beginning of his third year did he have the list that he desired at his disposal.

I would compel anyone to remove the following from any team and see if that team improves immediately: a two-time premiership ruckman, a best and fairest winner and two time All-Australian midfielder/goalsneak, a former number two draft pick in the prime of his career who was singled out by Ross Lyon as the best midfielder in the game only three years ago and a dashing half back flanker considered so dangerous he was the first Collingwood player to be tagged every week.

Scary part is, those guys were only last year’s departures.

Allowing these experienced players – Darren Jolly, Alan Didak, Dale Thomas and Heath Shaw, to move on from the club at the end of 2013 was a bold statement by Buckley, and the Pies were always going to suffer something of a short term drop off in 2014 as a result. It was all part of the plan.

In total, only thirteen of the twenty-three players who represented Collingwood in the 2010 grand finals remain on the list. That is a remarkable number, considering that almost half of such a young premiership team has left the club within four years.

With this being the case, and with the Pies stocking up on three first round draft picks in 2012 and two top ten picks in 2013, the long term approach was always going to be the way in which the Pies would reclaim the finals spot that they have owned in recent times.

When asked if their team could conceivably make a premiership push in 2014, both Buckley and Gary Pert said that it was indeed possible, raising expectations for this season. Deep down however, they are both well and truly aware of the path that the club is taking and really, what else could they have said? Being the Magpies comes with certain expectations and they were merely trying to satisfy their rabid fan-base, but if the club misses September for one season, they won’t mind.

Collingwood have clearly targeted 2016/17 as the opening of a fresh premiership window, soon enough that the likes of Scott Pendlebury (will be 28 at the start of the 2016 season), Travis Cloke (29), Dayne Beams (26) and Steele Sidebottom (25) will still be young enough to be key contributors, but far enough into the future that Magpie youngsters will be afforded time to develop.

On the weekend, the Pies sent a team to Perth that included no less than nine players with fewer than fifty games’ experience to their names. For the sake of comparison, the Saints were also represented by nine players who had played fewer than fifty games, as were the Dogs and Demons.

Not one of those teams currently sits higher than fourteenth on the ladder, while Collingwood are jostling for a finals position.

If you actually think about it, the fact that Collingwood has a list profile similar to that of the weakest teams in the league yet has managed to stay in top eight contention all season is an incredible feat. Nathan Buckley should be lauded instead of doubted and ridiculed.

In two or three years’ time, when this group has developed and matured, 2014 will be remembered as nothing more than a speed bump for the Pies.

The Crowd Says:

2014-08-18T03:17:22+00:00

Harbinger

Guest


Perhaps you would also like to be a part of the official CFC party, that assumes responsibility for collecting the wooden spoon that has been earmarked for the Pies over the next three years, in the event they fail to dump wanabee dud Buckley, and [if necessary] his self important bogan of a patron.

2014-08-18T03:06:37+00:00

In the outer

Guest


Buckley will continue to hang onto excuses about list changes and injuries, right up until the moment that he is shown the door. Collingwood is bound to lose against GWS next week and then cop a belting from the Hawks in the final round of season 2014. Presumably it was part of Buckley's 'game plan' to force a premiership winning team of back to back grand finalists, to an abysmal 12th place finish in three short years. There is now a very real likelihood, that the Pies will be confined to the bottom six during season 2015, with abject failure Buckley refusing to accept responsibility for his own obvious incompetence as a senior coach.

2014-08-16T03:59:07+00:00

Steve T

Guest


With the mass retirements of the saints and bulldogs, along with all the middle tier teams inability to take the next step (pick your theory), Nathan Buckley was gifted a list that could have enjoyed these same extended years of contention being enjoyed by Geelong and Hawthorn. And congratulations on those 3 extra 1st round draft picks they have traded in for, some may even become stars, we won't know for awhile though. What we do know however is that when contending Collingwood were in an incredibly strong position in the free agent market, with players willing to sign for under market value. Instead of tweaking the list to continue contending, Nathan in his wisdom decided to dismantle it. So effectively he has given away how many years of premiership contention to possibly contend in 2016-17.

2014-08-15T22:35:55+00:00

shezza

Guest


As a pies supporter I am stoked we finally have a coach who has the balls to make hard decisions. After midwaypoint of this year most pundits were pissing in Bucks pocket and now we lose games, he can't coach. If I were Eddie, I'd sign Bucks up for another 5 years as weare going in the right direction. Go Pies!!

2014-08-15T09:55:41+00:00

Don

Roar Rookie


I think if any other coach was bought in to take over that team when Bucks was and had taken them to the ladder positions he has since, they would be on very thin ice right now. I'm not convinced on Bucks as a coach. He presents well and speaks openly but it isn't backed up on field.

2014-08-15T08:04:30+00:00

Cat

Roar Guru


how about this for comparison: The continuity of success from the end of the Mark Thompson era through the early stages of the Chris Scott era can sometimes make it difficult to see the distinction between the two. But the transformation of the list in four years has been as significant as it has been swift. Of the 47 players on Geelong’s list when Scott arrived at the end of 2010, just 21 remain. Yet still the 38-year-old maintains a 77 per cent winning record, and has his team fighting hard for another top-two finish.

2014-08-15T06:21:33+00:00

Gecko

Guest


Agreed that Mick got the absolute best out of his players in 2010, though blaming Buckley for what happened since 2012 is unfair. No-one was gonna get even a grand final appearance out of the team after 2012. Not only because of the players retiring but also because many others have struggled for form in recent years. In most cases, that poor form isn't Buckley's fault. Heath Shaw, Sharrod Wellingham and Dale Thomas have left Collingwood but haven't recovered their 2010 form. Ongoing injuries curbing the output of Luke Ball, Ben Reid, and Nathan Brown can't be blamed on Buckley. The two form fades that are harder to explain are Cloke and Swan, but there's no evidence this was Buckley's fault. The arguments about 'look at the list he inherited' don't stack up. Give Bucks until at least mid-2015 to determine where he and the Pies are heading.

2014-08-15T05:20:09+00:00

SCC

Guest


Against the eagles, the only notable injuries were Swan Seedsman Brown and perhaps Hudson and Adams. Yet the eagles team which made them look stupid with a team of very similar age(according to stats which include Glass) and had injuries including Lecras, Selwood, Waters, Rosa (huge experience between them) as well as Sheppard, Yeo, Wellingham and even Ellis for much the game.. A 60 point thrashing from a team which has been lambasted through the year doesn't scream promise

2014-08-15T04:00:23+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


They played off in those 2 finals with Bucks there, as an assistant, for the first time in those years. Before that, Micky had them for 10?12? years with very ordinary results. Bucks , the assistant, brought the results. They did well despite Mick. Mick, without Bucks, did nothing. It's an argument to consider.

2014-08-15T03:07:26+00:00

dms1972

Guest


Have to disagree Don. As Collingwood supporter, I felt the side was on the slide by the end of 2011, even though they did play off in the Grand Final that year. While Geelong were the only side to beat Collingwood in 2011, and so, on the one hand, Collingwood could be considered unlucky not to win the premiership, but on the other hand they could be considered lucky to even have made it to the 2011 Grand Final, struggling to beat West Coast in their first final and then a last quarter salvage job against Hawthorn in the preliminary final, followed by a last quarter fadeout in the Grand Final. Malthouse was not going to take the side any further and change was needed. While all sides have injuries, Collingwood seem to have had more than their fair share to key players in the last three seasons which hasn't helped Buckley establish continuity to his team. I'd suggest only Hawthorn in 2014 and Sydney in 2013 have been able to cope better than Collingwood with the injuries they've had. Most other sides that have had extensive injury lists have been out of the top 8.

2014-08-15T03:06:57+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


I agree dms. To have the Pies still in contention for finals is a wonderful effort. Pies fans have always had high expectations (they must be in a constant state of disappointment over a life span) and other fans just love to dig the boots in. Lose, lose. I also enjoy Buck's demeanor in the media, often under pressure. I think the reason I like what he is doing is partially because he was a champion player with great personal standards and he has maintained those standards. It should not surprise that he is demanding that of his team and trading or disciplining negative habits out of those who won't comply. I also take an immediate position WITH tall poppies. Australia's tall poppy syndrome is its worst trait. To impose his standards, to teach so many youngsters and still have a team in contention for finals is outstanding.

2014-08-15T02:58:28+00:00

Me Too

Guest


Exactly the hole in this argument. Buckey took over a team that had just played off in two grand finals and had a nucleus expected to if not dominate, at least be a consistent top four team for the foreseeable future. instead he has led them on an ever downward spiral. List management has been abysmal. Anyone arguing the spiral has slowed because they won't finish 16th this year could well look instead at the raw number of ladder positions dropped each year and also at the fact they are likely to not play any part in finals at all - in both cases this is the worst year of Buckley's reign - the fall continues.

2014-08-15T02:57:29+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Did you notice how long it took Mick to win one? They only won it when Bucks came on board as an assistant. Until then, they were failing badly.

2014-08-15T02:49:51+00:00

dms1972

Guest


Darren Jolly (retired) Alan Didak (retired) Leigh Brown (retired) Leon Davis (retired) Ben Johnson (retired) Sharrod Wellingham (traded for pick 18 -Brodie Grundy) Chris Dawes (traded for pick 20 - Tim Broomhead) Dale Thomas (departed through free agency) Heath Shaw (traded for Taylor Adams) The only question mark I have with the departures is Heath Shaw for Taylor Adams. Broomhead and Grundy will be far better players than Dawes and Wellingham. Dawes was important to the success of 2010, is a hard working player but is by no means a star and struggled to play anywhere near the level of 2010 in 2011 and 2012.. Thomas barely played through 2012 and 2013 because of injury. Yes, the side was young but five retirements (and now a sixth in Nick Maxwell) will leave a huge hole, especially when all of those retired players were very important to the success of the side. Moving Didak and Jolly into retirement was justified by the fact that no other club were prepared to pick them up. Throw in Nathan Brown missing all of 2011 and most of 2014, Dayne Beams missing most of 2013, Luke Ball and Brent Macaffer most of 2012, Ben Reid most of 2014 and success will become much more difficult when the core of your premiership side are either unavailable or no longer there. Just because you have a young premiership side does not guarantee multiple premierships. Essendon, in 1993, had a young side that failed to even make the finals the following year. Collingwood at least made the Grand Final the year after their premiership and only one side beat them that year, so they could be considered a bit stiff. The current list is one of the youngest in the competition and will be even younger next year with Maxwell gone and the likely retirements of Lynch and Hudson plus a couple of other departures. Only Ball and Swan will be in the 30+ age group.

2014-08-15T02:34:54+00:00

Don

Roar Rookie


If the Pies don't get a lot better next year the only thing that will be keeping Buckley in the job will be his relationship with Eddie and the fact both of them would have egg on their faces if they gave up on the plan. Even if it takes 10 years to win another flag the first thing you'll here from Ed is "we were always working towards this and this is why we went with Bucks..." Personally, I think if Malthouse had stayed they would have made another GF and even won another flag.

2014-08-15T02:04:33+00:00

TomC

Roar Guru


I'm a bit dubious about this 'list changes' argument. Left over from that 2011 side would be Cloke, Pendlebury, Swan, Beams, Sidebottom, Lumumba, Maxwell, Macaffer, Brown, Reid and a few more I can't remember. Plenty of list changes, certainly, but the core of the side is mostly intact. The writer compels us to remove certain players from a given team and see how they go, but I'd contend that both Hawthorn and Geelong have lost players with significantly better achievements than those cited and yet appear to be doing much better than the Magpies. A quick check tells me that Adelaide and Port Adelaide fielded 10 and 11 players respectively with fewer than 50 games experience last weekend, and obviously they're ahead of the Pies on the ladder, so I'd say the writer's use of statistics is extremely selective.

2014-08-15T01:44:11+00:00

Nick Butler

Roar Guru


I feel like I have a foot in both camps at the moment. Obviously the 2014 magpies aren't flag contenders with so much experience traded out and a number of young players blooded it is always going to lead to inconsistencies and a drop in performance during the later half of the season. I like what Buckley did in regards to clearing the decks for to long the rat pack ran the club and it was to it's detriment as standards dropped and players became to happy with themselves. Shipping off Thomas and Shaw will have a hugely positive impact in 3-4 years time. But one thing you could be assured about under Malthouse was that he got the most out of the players at his disposal. During the 2002/2003 Grand Final years the pies had only 'above average' teams but Malthouse got everything out of them and their desperation and determination allowed them to make two finals they probably had no right to be in. My concern is whether Buckley is able to do something similar and whether he is amongst the tactical elite coaches in the AFL, on the evidence so far it would suggest he struggles in big games against quality coaching opposition. Certainly for the first time in many years I am questioning the players desire. As a magpies fan I was under no illusions that this season and next may be a bit of a struggle and I think the young talent which has been blooded will clearly form the nucleus of a team ready to again be top four in 2016, but whether Buckley is the right man to provide the structure and tactical nous required at the elite level of coaching remains to be seen.

2014-08-15T01:07:36+00:00

Andrew A

Guest


Terrific article. The Pies didn't achieve multiple premiership success but at least they won their 15th VFL/AFL flag in 2010. Hardly a huge disappointment. Everyone knows that Geelong is the most successful club in recent years with 3 flags since 2007 after a long drought of 44 years without winning one.

2014-08-15T01:06:05+00:00

Axle an the guru

Guest


You said it yourself Michael,one if the youngest premiership lists of all time,so why would a coach dismantle something like that? I agree with Genes comments,and yes their time will come,like you say,but i think it will be to select another coach.

2014-08-15T01:05:41+00:00

Paul D

Roar Guru


Considering Collingwood's history with premierships and grand finals, I’d argue they’d be ecstatic to actually win one, rather than hugely disappointed!

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