It was the second weekend in July when Port Adelaide slid out of the top four, and Geelong crept in. From that moment on, it was merely a case of the best four teams in the competition jockeying for starting finals positions.
Port can grab fourth place if they win next weekend, and admittedly they looked like they had returned to being a smart outfit with the shackles off last Friday night against Carlton.
But that was only Carlton, it was at home in front of a record crowd, and it won’t happen again next Saturday night in Perth against the Dockers.
We saw last week what Fremantle can do on their home patch when they made Hawthorn look feeble at times. And while they will miss Nat Fyfe again next Saturday, we also saw yesterday what a lethal combination Hayden Ballantyne and Michael Walters may be for the Dockers during September.
I’m risking egg on my face, but Port can’t match it across the park against Fremantle, and the Dockers will then be a big show of upsetting the Swans in Sydney the week after.
The penultimate home-and-away round really didn’t tell us too many things we didn’t already really know. Richmond as expected crept into the eight, Essendon secured their finals berth, while the Buddy Franklin inspired Sydney now have the minor premiership virtually in their keeping.
But the Hawthorn versus Geelong game told me one thing – actually, reassured me when I was starting to doubt… Geelong can’t win the flag.
They have done tremendously well to finish in the top four, may reach the preliminary final, but won’t go any further.
They could have and should have buried Hawthorn on Saturday after being five goals up at one point. The old Cats would have, and while credit must go to Hawthorn, it was the Geelong performance which was most revealing.
The Hawks had answers everywhere in the second half against an at times insipid Geelong attack.
Geelong coach Chris Scott said after game that it was still “a step forward in our preparation”, and “we’ll learn some things from tonight. In that respect, it’s kind of mission accomplished”.
I don’t know if he’d be that positive and kind with his players behind closed doors though.
And I don’t buy into suggestions the Cats eased off in the second half knowing that regardless of the result they would be meeting the Hawks in the first week of the finals.
On that performance, the Cats can’t beat the Hawks in that final. Lose and they face a sudden-death semi final the week after, and then if they win that game, they would have to travel to either Sydney or Perth for the preliminary final. They won’t be winning at either venue.
The good news for Tigers fans is that you won’t suffer your boys finishing in ninth position. Again, risking an egg facial, I don’t think they’ll make the eight – they will finish tenth.
Yesterday’s game against St Kilda was a difficult one. The Tigers needed the win, but once it was pretty much secured, how could they not think about next week. But I didn’t see enough yesterday or in the past few weeks to be honest, to suggest they can come to Sydney and beat the Swans in the form the red and whites are in.
I can’t see Collingwood winning against Hawthorn, but both Adelaide and West Coast should get wins against St Kilda and the Gold Coast respectively, which by my calculations will put the Eagles into eighth, the Crows ninth, and the Tigers tenth.
Next Monday morning, you could be reading my column written after I have peeled the yolk from my face. But then again, you could be reading it while Richmond start their Mad Monday, Fremantle get ready to head to Sydney, and Port prepare to host the West Coast.
See you in seven days.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Never said that at all (not sure if you are inferring i did either). I just found the stats. Interesting reading that does reveal the best team for H&A usually deserves and gets to win the premiership. Doesn't mean it is impossible - I have always said, it has to happen sometime.
Tom from Perth
Guest
"most likely"!! you are feeling purple this evening Don! I hope you're right!
Don Freo
Guest
Gecko, you have a strange footy eye if you think Duncan, Christenson and Stokes are not tough, hard at the ball footballers.
Don Freo
Guest
Just as well teams don't play footy based on historical precedent. The Allies won 2 World Wars...and haven't won a war since. Does anyone really believe a team in form cannot win the premiership BECAUSE they finished 5-8? It is a lazy commentator's idea. Anyone can win. Freo is most likely.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Good bit of research there Jack. Interesting figures.
Tom from Perth
Guest
Hang on. As Don points out we have one of those games at home. And we just completely outplayed the Hawks and we should have beaten Geelong. There's no clear yardstick to compare Freo and Sydney in current form. Underestimate Freo if you want Tim but there is no way your beloved Hawks would be so naive to think Freo have no chance to win the flag.
Don Freo
Guest
You have 2 problem here Tim. Freo will have one of those games at home whether 4th or 5th and whether they win or lose. Your second problem is, how do you shrug Luke Breust out of his form slump? No Gunston, no Breust. I think he may have run his race. Relying on Hale and Puopolo is a worry...for you. No worries for anyone else.
Don Freo
Guest
Hawthorn is certainly a skip or two behind Freo.
Balthazar
Guest
Quite right MP. At least Freo had the excuse of never having played before in a GF or in front of 100k+
andyl12
Guest
Hey Gene, another serious question- do you believe your coach's claim that the side stopped trying after half time and didn't care if it lost? That is SO against the attitude Geelong have shown in every Hawthorn game for the last 6 years that I can't help but call your coach a liar.
Steve Kerr
Roar Rookie
Bosk has convinced me: the length of Geelong's stay at the top, and the way they've managed to stay competitive during a rebuild is entirely due to biased officials, and no other reason whatsoever.
Majestic Pavlova
Guest
Bit like the Hawks in '12.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Nah, I reckon Gene would’ve pulled out the gold plated thermos and stocked it with the “continental” franks for the missus.
Brian
Guest
Yeah your right they were just unable to produce under pressure.
Mark Soong
Guest
The fact that geelong rebuilds their list and at the same time keeps in touch with the top 4..have stay in good shape..so comes finals the likes of sydney and the hawks waiting..so fans that have negative comments steams from the fact of the cats loss by 110 points in sydney and the 23 points loss(58 points turnaround)..no worries..as i said previously..the cats will learn and give them a good fight..watch out for george-horlin smith..he will be the x-factor..
Balthazar
Guest
Thats not why Hawthorn won. Freo had more scoring shots but were their own worst enemy. They were not too tired
geoff
Guest
Yeah those pesky umpires in 07 09 11 grand finals And 4 out of every 5 cats games since midway through 06....
geoff
Guest
Thanks mattyb. For what its worth I think freo are the best on the road and would be the least frightened. No stats or scientific proof just a hunch
mattyb
Guest
Agree Geoff,have the week off and that's where the premier will come from
Gecko
Guest
What the Geelong vs Hawks game last weekend confirmed is that Geelong have gone from a team of hard bodied midfielders to a pretty soft bunch. A few years ago, they had Chapman, Corey, Ling, Milburn and Pods throwing their weight around at clearances. These guys have been replaced by a lot of midfielders who are good when Geelong has the ball, but not so good when it's in contention or the opposition has it. Motlop, Murdoch, Christenson, Duncan and Stokes can shine when Kelly, Johnson, Caddie and Selwood are getting the ball out to them. But each averages less than 4 tackles per game and each is better at receiving than actually getting the ball. When the opposition midfield get on top, the Cats' 'receiver fleet' tend to go quiet. Since Kelly, Guthrie and Caddie aren't particularly creative, and Bartel is not a great 'in-and-under' type, the challenge is if you shut down Johnson and Selwood, you shut down Geelong. Last weekend, Geelong didn't even have Johnson! Geelong will be hoping Guthrie, Caddie and Duncan can develop as hard-ball winners in 2015, and they really should be looking at trading one of their 'receiver fleet' because they have too many.