So according to most pundits, Buddy Franklin is the new Peter Hudson, Kurt Tippett is pretty much Tony Lockett, Sydney is a runaway grand final favourite, and Hawthorn or Geelong might jag one only if things go totally right for them.
As for the teams outside the top four, well, there are a few colourful stories among them, but ultimately history says they’re making up the numbers.
MORE AFL FINALS:
>> Complete guide to week 1
>> Roar Expert tips and predictions
>> Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers preview
>>Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats HIGHLIGHTS
>> Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers preview
>> North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers preview
That’s the pre-finals narrative. Among it not even a faint whisper of the double-chanced men in purple who find themselves saddling up for another whack at it.
I can’t understand why.
Here’s a team who fell short by just three goals against the soon-to-be marauding Swans way back in Round 5, a game that also marked the starting point of Fremantle’s softest stretch of 2014 form.
The Cats were pummelled by Freo at Patersons when the Dockers eventually emerged from that early season funk, and Geelong only took revenge in the return bout at Fort Simonds because of a slightly wayward Mundy kick and some seriously tardy officialdom.
The Hawks felt the Dockers’ wrath just one week later, a win that rendered the Hawks’ mighty triumph in the much awaited grand final replay at the start of the year pretty much meaningless. At the right end of the season the Dockers were tougher, harder, hungrier and just plain better. In my view significantly so.
The point of such retrospection?
Going on plain results against fellow contenders, Fremantle are up to their necks in it. They deserve a little more respect.
I had the good fortune of watching Freo up close during the course of my ABC boundary commentary duties a few weeks back.
They’d made the long haul trip to Brisbane to confront a rejuvenated Lions outfit who were fresh off effectively and dramatically ending Collingwood’s season the week prior.
Lions fans went in vaguely hopeful of at best an unlikely triumph against a sore and weary opponent, or at worst a competitive, fighting loss.
But no. Freo were just Freo. An even spread of contributors, stronger at the disputed ball, stronger in the air, relentless, precise. In a blink the game was gone. The latter stages were academic.
Plenty of things opened my eyes to the Dockers that day.
First and foremost was their size. The Dockers are an enormous team. Of course any side that counts Aaron Sandilands among its number will take some toppling in the average height stakes, but it’s more the physical bulk on display that stands out.
Ball gatherers like Mundy and Mayne are built like rugby flankers. They are taller than you expect, thick through the hips and legs, and powerful in the chest and arms. Their kind is tough to counter.
Then there’s Freo’s multitude of on-field positional winners. Yes, the opponent was Brisbane when I was having a close gander, but the example they set that day is readily transposable to more fancied foes.
I’ve already mentioned Mundy and Mayne, both rarely quelled. Michael Walters is an out and out star. Ballantyne has assumed the mantle of the game’s best small forward. Say what you will about Ryan Crowley and the modern relevance of taggers but fact remains he is rarely beaten.
There’s outside line breakers Stephen Hill and Danyle Pearce. Throw in Nate Fyfe and – of course – Matthew Pavlich and it’s a pretty heady mix of elite talent.
But Fremantle also enjoys preponderance of unheralded athleticism and skill in an undervalued middle tier. The likes of Zac Clarke, Lachie Neale, Tendai Mzungu, Paul Duffield, Cameron Sutcliffe go relatively unnoticed, at least in the footballing east. These blokes are the bread and butter of a Ross Lyon-coached side.
They do as they’re told and they never give up contesting. Zac Dawson has his critics. I’m not really sure why. While Josh Gibson is roundly praised for competing pretty much only with a fist, Dawson, arguably a more athletic and physically adaptable defensive option, is roundly slandered. Go figure.
Add to all of this the one thing Lyon didn’t enjoy while getting the Saints so close – genuine depth. Garrick Ibbotson, Alex Silvagni, Matt Taberner, Matt de Boer and Lee Spurr.
All can play, but unlike the ‘drone’ players at St Kilda in 2009 and 2010, all can play significantly more than telling part. Taberner in particular has been a quiet revelation.
It’s interesting to note that with the exception of hitouts (read: Sandilands) there are very few categories in which the Dockers are clearly statistically relevant. Freo lurk around the middle of the ladder for most on-field measurables. It speaks loudly of consistency of effort and end-to-end evenness.
It also speaks of work rate.
Few, if any teams, work harder without the ball than Fremantle. They chase, harass, annoy, shepherd, spoil and sprint for space. They do all these things all day, often back-to-back.
If you want the perfect illustration of Freo’s work ethic, take a look at Chris Mayne’s goal-saving tackle, run to space, body on the line mark and goal to pretty much ice last week’s game against Port Adelaide.
Literally every time a Docker passes through the interchange gates for a stint on the pine, they are doubled over and struggling to breathe. The team’s on-field expectation is total exertion.
On the day I saw them at the Gabba, no Lion was given an inch. Any offensive hesitation was pounced upon the kind of fervour you might expect from a starving cheetah when it spots a zebra with a limp. For some this kind of frenzied pressure is stiflingly dull. I find it intoxicating.
That the Dockers have only had one real ‘sickie’ – when they were belted by St Kilda at Docklands in one of the upsets of the year – is all the more impressive. The stoic discipline among this playing group really is something to behold.
Throw all this together and it’s easy to make a pretty compelling case for Fremantle in 2014, and that optimism should extend to Saturday’s qualifying final in Sydney.
The average margin between these sides over the course of their last five encounters is a tick more than two goals. Two wins apiece and a draw. Talk as much as you like about star power, clearance numbers, tackles and contested possession counts, fact is that when these sides meet two heavy machines collide.
It’ll be the same on Saturday – a decisive ten-minute burst, a kick or two here and there. But why so many are so willing to simply ink in the result on the Swans side of the ledger beggars belief.
Rewrite the narrative, I say. Fremantle are not to be trifled with.
Don Freo
Guest
I suspect you're going solo with those comments, chris. I can't imagine Freo getting beaten would get rid of me...there is the draft and trades and the pre-season still to come. Besides, fellow Roarers would miss me. I am deeply loved. Just to give you a foretaste of my 2015 comments, my preditions for top 4 next year are; Freo West Coast Gold Coast Adelaide ...
chris
Guest
so just nothing.... im loving the game as i have done since i first starting supporting the swans in 1986... there are a lot turkeys on here with insane 1-sided analysis... but you irk me because you just write garbage that is totally divorced from reality.... i never liked freo... i guess in fact like most good afl supporters i hate every team except my own... but you are making me hate freo even more. you are lowering the overall quality of the site... and i like the roar... so just stop... like you know go and hide in your corner under a rock.... i really do hope port beats freo, i dont believe they will*, but i would love for you to go away and your team being eliminated will accomplish that *NOTE: reasoned anlysis regardless of personal preference, something never seen in a single comment by you... take the lesson.
Don Freo
Guest
Oh Chris...did I hurt your feelings? Have the cry...but may I suggest you watch the game again and enjoy it. How fragile are you? Why follow SS, win your way into the Prelim...and all you can concern yourself with is what I say? I love the power you ascribe to me! I probably got the day wrong. The 25-40 point loss will be in a fortnight against NM and then Freo will win by 40 points in the Grandy against North. My bad. Hope that doesn't upset you.
chris
Guest
Don feo.. You are a disgrace, considering the crap you have been sprouting all over the roar about freo winning by 40points if they don't ease up and all the other garbage you sprouted about the ruck ..... Don't you think its time you ate a bit of humble pie and analyzed how you got the results 64points wrong.... Something a little bit more substantial than that "wing and prayer" garbage. tell us all ohhh great genius what happened, explain the key errors you made in your various analysis in the last week. Dont follow your teams coach into the "I'm not making excuses but a lot went wrong this week"..... The claytons excuse... We lost... but... That is why toss luon has a 0 for 4 record in GF's because ultimately he is instilling a culture of excuse making. as i said Don Freo please explain how you got it 64points wrong explain in detail all the different aspects of the game you were wrong about please..... Or never comment on the roar again....dont do a ross Lyon man up.... And take your medecine by acknowledging the multitude of ways you were wrong.
Momentbymoment
Guest
It's a WA thing ...
Kasey
Guest
I was right though. Freo never in the contest. Guess it was the umpire's fault? The only Freo fan on my FB feed mentioned that the swans won by 4 goals and they also had 4 questionable frees that led to goals. He then asked if it was a coincidence?
Don Freo
Guest
How many times have they played there?
Shouts Chen
Guest
Fremantle have never won a match at ANZ Stadium. I remembered back in 2006 where Dockers lost to the Swans by 32 points.
Don Freo
Guest
Yeah, I wish our boys would take more half chances and get the ball goalward...let the crumbing happen in the goalsquare. We tended to want to work it into a position...and that didn't happen often enough. Sydney let fly on a wing and a prayer at goal a few times and those times had big pay offs. Fantastic defense by Freo boys but too watchful in attack. Not unhappy though...I was always keen to watch them again next week. Not sure I wanted them to have a week off. Chance to iron out a few kinks.
Simoc
Guest
Freo played well today but not well enough to beat the Swans. However in Melbourne on Grand Final day the score should be reversed. The teams are well matched and Franklyn and Goodes showed a bit of class at critical times. Swans often scored on the break, Freo never did.
Don Freo
Guest
Kasey.You've used just about every mindless cliche that trashy newspapers use. Any thoughts about football?
Kasey
Guest
Fiery atmosphere? At ANZ? Get ya hand off it. ANZ will deliver a rubbish surface and another rubbish atmosphere. Possibly a rubbish (by Swans standards) sized crowd too. It seems to me that the only fans who like ANZ are those whose employers shelled out for ANZ Stadium Memberships. I believe NRL club accountants like the stadium thanks to generous financial inducements to move home games to a grossly outsized facility. I'm yet to meet a Swans fan who prefers ANZ over the SCG.
Kasey
Guest
Jason, the only ship that will never ever dock in Freo harbour is the Premier-ship. They are a modern day St.Kilda, their club just doesn't have a winning culture and they are hamstrung by a culture created by living in the shadow of the Weagles.
bryan
Guest
Eastern States commentators still tend to "curl their lips" when they talk about the Dockers. OK.we used to suck,now we don't!--Get over it!! When Fremantle loses a game,or even when they win,out comes the "Dockers lack depth,"Dockers,play a boring defensive game",& so on. If Freo could walk on water,the comment would be "The Dockers can't swim"! OK,I've had my whinge :) We may win,or we may lose tomorrow's game,but in either case it doesn't mean either Freo or the Swans are useless------they are playing Finals football to the best of their ability,which for both teams is pretty bloody good! :) It's not all about individual players----the Swans could lose Buddy (or anyone) & still win,& the Dockers could lose Pav (or anyone) & prevail.. A champion team is a bit more than just a "team of champions".
Cat
Roar Guru
You are welcome :)
Natalie SwansFan
Guest
Why thank you Gene :-) Yes, so I see it now, they are up there in differential. Gee the differential on those 1 percenters isn't good. Looks like effective disposals might be letting them down a bit. Should be a great contest. GO SWANNIES!!!
Cat
Roar Guru
Dockers #2 in clearance differential http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2014&type=DT&sby=29&advv=Y
Natalie SwansFan
Guest
Thanks for clarifying dockersfan. Can you point me to where I can obtain those sorts of stats? Careful, I'm not a new south welsh lady, I'm actually Perth born and bred. The reason I didn't get what you were saying has nothing to do with "supporting a team in a rugby state", it has more to do with the fact that I am blonde!!
dockersfan
Guest
What happens when you pull people up on correct stats? I'll put it down to supporting a team in a rugby state. Dockers are no1 in contested possession and clearance DIFFERENTIAL, swans are 8th and 14th respectively. Meaning although the Swans have a lot of these stats because they like to slow the game down and turn it into a slog, Fremantle beat the opposition in these areas more than any other side. Whereas the Swans lose the clearances more times than not. Differential is a much more accurate measure than total stats. Sort of like points scored means nothing without points against, because it's all well and good to score 100 points a game but if you allow the opposition to score 120 a game it means you're losing.
PilbaraFrenzy
Guest
You're correct Natalie, in term of overall stats, but dockersfan refers to the contested possession and clearance 'differential'.