Irresponsible gambling: Ryano's NRL finals predictions

After a tremendous finish to the regular season, the top eight has now been finalised. The NRL finals series will kick-off this weekend with four intriguing match-ups and plenty of sub-plots to analyse.

With only quality teams left in the competition – along with the Bulldogs and Broncos (zing!) – it ensures bold prognostications are fraught with danger. This is a task made even more hazardous when you decide to put your money where your mouth is.

The gambling gods have been angry this week, and have demanded a sacrifice to appease them. Said sacrifice will no doubt be my hard-earned cash, but be that as it may, below is what I’ll be betting on this weekend.

» FULL NRL FINALS DRAW
» PRENTICE: Write your own NRL fairytale
» NRL Finals information, team lists, full coverage
» 2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» Manly vs South Sydney preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
» Mastermind’s NRL Finals preview

Sea Eagles versus Rabbitohs
Is it a gross exaggeration to say this is a ‘must win’ game for both clubs? I know technically the loser will live to fight another day, but both teams have displayed a vulnerability over the last few weeks.

It is not the ideal time of the season to be demonstrating a chink in the armour, especially with how ruthless the defending premiers have looked of late.

I fear the loser of this game will have too much psychological damage to overcome in order to win the premiership.

Over the last five weeks, Manly have been belted by North Queensland, Parramatta and South Sydney, while scraping home with a miracle win against Penrith, along with narrow victory by three points against the lowly Gold Coast.

The game against the Cowboys had the minor premiership on the line, and was therefore a good test of where the Sea Eagles are as we head into the finals.

Unfortunately for Manly, the indication from that game is that the Sea Eagles premiership hopes sit somewhere between ‘not good’ and ‘horrible’.

In an understatement for the ages, Manly don’t head into this week’s finals in good form, and when you throw in the whispers of disharmony that just won’t go away, should they lose on Friday night, it’s difficult to imagine they can suddenly turn around their form in time to still go on and win the competition.

The Rabbitohs position isn’t quite as dire, but the fact remains they didn’t look fantastic for most of the game against the Roosters, and concerns remain about their creativity, decision-making and leadership; qualities that are vital at this juncture of the season.

Should Souths fail to beat an apparently faltering Manly, can they realistically be expected to recover and win three games in a row against quality opposition? I think not.

It’s a must-win game for both teams and it’s a coin toss trying to select the likely victor. However, Manly’s big game experience might just see them home.

Sea Eagles by 1.

Roosters versus Panthers
Penrith have battled for respect and kudos all season long. Why would this weekend be any different? Few people outside of Sydney’s west will pick them to win on Saturday, especially when you consider that they’re facing the defending premiers, who also happen to be the freshly crowned minor premiers.

The Roosters have looked super impressive of late, and seem to be tapering nicely. Throughout the regular season, they seemed a little off the pace, but they always remained within striking distance of top spot, and as the finals approached, they took their play up a notch.

The much-maligned Mitchell Pearce has been playing sensational football, Sonny Bill Williams’ short passing game adds a dangerous dimension to their attack, and their defence has been tight and tough.

The Chooks are the deserved premiership favourites, and Penrith will be a mere speed-bump on their path towards back-to-back titles.

Roosters by 14.

Cowboys versus Broncos
I’m hoping that Brisbane sent the Penrith Panthers a thank you note for defeating the Warriors, thereby eliminating New Zealand from the finals race, and resuscitating the Broncos season. It is a season that certainly appeared to be dead, following their loss to the Storm on Friday night.

However, considering the form of their opposition this weekend, I suspect Brisbane’s resurrection will be short-lived anyway.

The Cowboys are white hot, having won seven of their last eight games, including the impressive scalps of Manly and Souths. Momentum is a valuable weapon in sports – particularly at this time of year – and the Cowboys have plenty of it.

Johnathan Thurston has his team primed for a deep finals run, and with the Cowboys facing another Queensland side on Saturday night, you’d think even the referees can’t screw them with an anti-Queensland conspiracy this time.

Cowboys by 10.

Storm versus Bulldogs
As a proud Doggies fan, I tweeted on the weekend that I had a lot of sympathy with Richmond Tigers supporters. Why? Because I suspect I’ll share their pain of experiencing the high of just sneaking into the finals, only to feel the low of being obliterated in the first week at the hands of a more professional outfit.

The Dogs have looked atrocious for well over a month now, and the weekend’s one point loss to the Titans in golden point was the exclamation mark on a regular season marred by inconsistency.

Though the Dogs still have a formidable forward pack, questions remain about the creativity in their halves, and the strike-power in the backline. Furthermore, the team lacks real leadership in tight situations, and is prone to costly mental errors.

By contrast, Melbourne are a slick and well balanced team with a ruthless streak when it comes to exploiting opposition’s weaknesses. Sadly for the Dogs, they’ve got a number of those for the likes of coach Craig Bellamy, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cam Smith (if fit) to take advantage of.

I suspect the Storm will mercifully put these Dogs down on Sunday, along with their disappointing season.

Storm by 20.