TURNER: I'm picking just one upset in the NRL finals this weekend

We’ve reached finals time at last and now that they are here, I have got to say I am really pumped.

Every one of the eight teams would have a terrific story to tell if it went all the way and won the title but I’m not deviating from what I wrote here on The Roar last week – the Sydney Roosters will go back-to-back.

For me, they have peaked beautifully in time to snatch the minor premiership and it is going to take a mighty effort to stop Trent Robinson’s men from here.

Let’s take a look at this weekend’s mouth-watering match-ups.

MORE NRL FINALS
» FULL NRL FINALS DRAW
» PRENTICE: Write your own NRL fairytale
» NRL Finals information, team lists, full coverage
» 2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» Manly vs South Sydney preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
» Mastermind’s NRL Finals preview

Manly v Souths
I think the Rabbitohs will win this for a number of reasons. The Sea Eagles are in a slump, just having narrowly won two games out of their last five.

Manly has been hit hard by injuries to key forwards and they have also ‘lost’ their home ground advantage. I realise they are at their best in times of adversity and have a brilliant finals record but I just think there are too many factors pulling against them.

The Rabbits will welcome Adam Reynolds back from injury and big Ben Te’o will add even more starch and potency to their powerful pack.

Souths would have taken a heck of a lot from their late rally against the Roosters last week. I think it will be very tight early but feel they will win comfortably.

Cowboys v Broncos
I cannot see the Cowboys losing this one in Townsville.

They have lost only one home game all season and have been in magnificent form over the past five weeks.

This looks to be the club’s best chance at the title, even better than when they made the grand final against the Wests Tigers in 2005.

Johnathan Thurston has been amazing since his switch back to halfback and Robert Lui ultra impressive as his sidekick at five-eighth.

Coach Paul Green has got his forwards firing in defence and attack at the right time of year and there is any number of potential try-scorers in the North Queenslandbackline. Michael Morgan has been an absolute find at fullback (or halfback) and players such as Kyle Feldt and Tautau Moga are as dangerous as any backs in the competition.

The Broncos pretty much made the finals by default and I expect them to try and ride their luck from start to finish. They have been given an unexpected chance and have nothing to lose.

I am not writing off Brisbane – in form halfback Ben Hunt has been playing like a superstar in recent weeks – but after watching the explosiveness and hunger in the Cowboys, I think they’ll win this all-Queensland battle and shorten dramatically in the odds for the title.

Roosters v Panthers
Penrith have confounded almost everyone to snare a top four berth but I just can’t see the Roosters being beaten in this one.

I was hugely impressed by what I saw from the Roosters in the first 60 minutes against Souths. They turned on the brand of football we saw at this time last year and I cannot see the plucky Panthers holding them over 80 minutes.

The Roosters halves have hit form in perfect time for the big games and even though they’re down a few players because of suspension and injury, they’ll do the job and grab a precious week off.

This will be Anthony Minichiello’s 300th game for the tri-colours. That’s a magnificent achievement and will trigger plenty of sentiment both on and off the pitch.

Storm v Bulldogs
I still shaking my head over Canterbury’s dreadful second half when they threw away an 18-0 lead and lost to the Titans on Sunday.

That was not the Bulldogs team I know and I’ll put it down as an aberration and say an upset win over Melbourne is a distinct possibility.

In the first round, the Dogs smashed them 40-12 in Perth and Des Hasler’s lads backed it up with a gutsy 6-4 result in their second meeting. In rugby league, there are some teams you just like playing.

Perhaps Canterbury’s hopes will swing on whether Cameron Smith plays for the Storm. The champion hooker is battling an ankle problem and when he is missing Melbourne loses direction around the rucks along with his tremendous leadership and goal-kicking ability.

The Storm have been looking very good late in the season and will obviously run onto their home ground as clear-cut favourites. I understand all of that but I’m tipping a Dogs upset – the only one in week one of the NRL finals.