Analysing Robbie Gray's Brownlow Medal chances

Port Adelaide superstar Robbie Gray has had a breakout year in 2014, with many experts claiming him to be the “smokey” for the 2014 Brownlow Medal.

Gray has had an outstanding season, but can he leave Monday night as a Brownlow medalist?

Gray played all 22 games this year, allowing for maximum voting potential. Most of the Brownlow favourites did not manage to play all 22 games apart from Joel Selwood, giving Gray a minor advantage before the count has even begun.

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Gray kicked 34 goals for the season, booting four goals on four occasions. On three of those occasions Port Adelaide were victorious, giving him the best chance to poll votes. Gray snagged a goal in 15 of his 22 games with great consistency.

He averaged 25 disposals for the season, and racked up more than 30 disposals on seven occasions. The three games Gray had more than 35 possessions the Power lost, which includes twice against Sydney. Thirteen times Gray managed to rack up 25 touches, demonstrating his remarkable consistency in the midfield and possession areas.

Port Adelaide’s success will only improve his chances of polling with the Power winning 14 games this season. In Port’s wins Gray averaged 24.4 disposals and kicked 26 goals at an average of two a game. Gray does not go quietly when the Power dominate, which can be a strong sign of polling during winning games.

Captain Travis Boak may be the teammate to pinch votes off Gray. Boak has lead by example this season, averaging 26 disposals respectively. Although Boak has kicked nowhere near as many goals as Gray at 18.

One thing that can stop Gray on Monday night is his polling history. Although injury prone over the years Gray has polled just 15 career votes in just seven matches. His best total was six votes in 2009 and 2011 respectively.

Gray has already taken home the AFL coaches association player of the year award, polling in 18 of those games. I can see Gray polling in at least 15 games in the Brownlow with a dangerous amount of votes in the final four rounds, where he had an average of 31.7 disposals and booted seven goals.

After serious knee injuries in 2012 it would be a great fairytale story for Robbie Gray. He has had to undergo career threatening surgeries to get where he is in 2014. He has always had the rare talent that can change outcomes of games and winning the Brownlow will be the ultimate reward for a hard working player.

Predicted votes: 26