Mitch Marsh can end Watson's Test career

By Ronan O'Connell / Expert

Shane Watson’s latest injury could well result in either a Test debut for Mitch Marsh or the revival of Ben Hilfenhaus’ international career.

Watson this week was ruled out of the two-Test tour of the United Arab Emirates against Pakistan starting next month, after injuring his right calf.

A problem with the same calf kept the physically fragile all-rounder out of the first two Tests of Australia’s last series, in South Africa in February.

Watson had been hoping to make a comeback in the UAE after also missing the recent Zimbabwe triangular ODI series due to an ankle injury.

But the re-injuring of his calf means he will now have to wait until the Australian summer, and opened the door for the two men challenging for his position in the Test side – Mitch Marsh and Glenn Maxwell.

Chairman of selectors Rod Marsh said Watson will still be a key element of Australia’s planning for the home summer. That could quickly change though should either Marsh or Maxwell excel against Pakistan.

At 33 years old and with a battered body, Watson’s time as a Test cricketer is fast approaching an end. For years he managed to retain his place in the Test line-up through scores of injuries because the selectors were vehement in their belief that they needed an all-rounder.

Previously, there was no obvious candidate who could both bat in the top six and contribute better than part-time overs.

Now the selectors believe they have two such players in Marsh and Maxwell. Multi-skilled Tasmanian James Faulkner is also highly rated.

Ironically, Watson’s Test form is better than it has been since the golden days of 2009 and 2010. His past seven Tests have reaped 612 runs at 47, including two of the four centuries he has recorded across a 52-match career.

Along with the emergence of Marsh, Maxwell and Faulkner, two other factors could work against Watson.

Firstly, the Australian think tank has placed increased importance on stability and continuity within the Test side.

They famously selected the same XI for all five Tests of the last Ashes, despite George Bailey’s struggles batting at six and Ryan Harris’ body appearing to be on the brink of malfunction.

Watson challenges this approach because he continues to be a match-to-match proposition. Since making his Test debut almost 10 years ago, the burly cricketer has missed dozens of matches through injury.

Should one of Marsh or Maxwell acquit themselves well against Pakistan, the Australian selectors may decide that they can no longer take the risk of fielding the injury-prone all-rounder.

The second factor which could help to end Watson’s career is the ageing nature of Australia’s side and the impending generational change.

Seven members of their core team from last summer – Watson, Brad Haddin, Chris Rogers, Ryan Harris, Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle, and Michael Clarke – are well into their 30s and are not guaranteed to be playing Test cricket in 18 months’ time.

Australia have blundered through transitional periods in the past – most obviously in the wake of the retirements of Ricky Ponting and Mike Hussey, when they soon went nine consecutive Tests without a win.

Given that Johnson, Clarke, Harris, Haddin and Rogers remain key players, the selectors could view moving on from Watson as the first step towards refreshing the veteran-heavy line-up.

First, of course, someone has to demand his spot. Which one of Marsh or Maxwell is selected in Watson’s place will likely depend on the conditions.

The pitch at Abu Dhabi, the venue for the second Test, is expected to be spin friendly. However, uncertainty surrounds the character of the deck for the opening match at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.

While banned Pakistan spinner Saeed Ajmal has dominated at that ground in the past, it offers far more assistance to the quicks than the Abu Dhabi deck. In the last Test played there, both Pakistan and Sri Lanka fielded three specialist quicks and together those pacemen combined to take 21 of the 31 wickets which fell in the match.

Rod Marsh said recently there was a chance the Dubai pitch could be “quick and bouncy”.

“The Australian curator there, Tony Hemming, he likes to see the ball fly,” Marsh said. “But whether or not he has to hand that pitch over to a Pakistani curator – in the past he’s had to hand over two weeks before – whether or not he has to do it this time I’m not sure. If Tony had his way it would be a very fast and bouncy pitch. It’s got that capability.”

With these conditions in mind, Australia drafted in veteran swing bowler Ben Hilfenhaus to replace Watson in the squad. Hilfenhaus is the fourth frontline quick alongside Johnson, Siddle and young left-armer Mitchell Starc.

It appears the tourists will seriously consider fielding three specialist pacemen if the Dubai pitch looks suitable. Such a scenario would boost the chances of Maxwell playing as he would offer a second spin option.

Alternatively, if the pitch looks set to turn the selectors will probably pick two specialist tweakers, leaving Maxwell surplus to requirements and making Marsh an attractive proposition as the third seamer.

It would be a significant challenge for either young all-rounder. Maxwell is wonderfully gifted but is yet to display the temperament required for success at Test level. Marsh, meanwhile, owns a first-class batting average of 28.51 in spite of his recent double century for Australia A against India A.

Both players have massive scope for development. Watson will have to hope that improvement doesn’t come about in the UAE or his Test career could be over.

The Crowd Says:

2014-09-30T15:23:46+00:00

Broken-hearted Toy

Guest


He rescued the Scorchers again in the dead match and he was playing as skipper this time. They threw all their youngsters out there. Looked like a futures team with veteran blow-ins!

2014-09-28T13:06:21+00:00

bearfax

Guest


I should also point out that Doolan supposedly had a good Shield season 2013-14. In fact he averaged 35.7 from 11 innings. Cosgrove had a poor season by his standards and only averaged 36.7 from 15 innings. Go figure

2014-09-28T12:38:05+00:00

bearfax

Guest


I think I stressed that such a comparison was only reasonable for looking at consistency and you are right, the smaller the sample the less accurate it is. Performances though tend to fluctuate over the years but most batsmen tend to improve overall until they hit their 30s and then even out until they are about 35. I already stressed that Maddinson, Silk and Mitch Marsh will probably improve...and probably significantly.Hughes and Maxwell will also get better being only 25. But for now Mitch Marsh in particular despite a fairly good season isnt in my opinion test level. Whiteman also is new so there's little to be gained so far from his figures for potential. I do however suggest that in respect of Cooper, Doolan and Cosgrove, that the figures are much closer to demonstrating overall consistency. I disagree that Doolan is a better batsman than Cosgrove. As an overall cricketer he may have an edge because of his fielding, and I suspect Cossie misses out on selection because of his weight. But I think Cossie is a better batsman and the figures suggest that despite his recent poorer form. Cooper had a top Shield season 2013-14, but that's the first time he has shone. If you look at their figures overall, Cosgrove has played 227 first class innings with 23 centuries and an average of 42.47 (his average has actually dropped in recent times from 45+). Doolan has played 104 innings for only 6 centuries and an average of 37.59. Cooper has played only 72 innings for only 4 centuries at 39.16 Maxwell's 4 centuries in 48 innings looks much better in comparison). Yet Cossie is 30 years old, Doolan almost 29 and Cooper almost 28, so their ages are not that different. Both Doolan and Cooper have had some recent good batting. Cossie coming back from injury has been less successful. Yet he still is significantly ahead of the other two in his figures, no matter how you read them.

2014-09-28T05:48:57+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


That kind of stat is only useful for established players and, even then, only pertinent over the last few season...if that long. White had a rush of good scores last year but was scoreless for about 3 seasons before that. Whiteman, batting at #7 twice ran out of partners...2 centuries or do you decide, instead, on that stat that he is a failure and not ready? Marsh, Cooper, Doolan and Whiteman are substantially better batsmen than Cosgrove and White but Cossy's good years at SA were 7 years ago. You are counting his performances then as pertinent to the now by saying he scores more centuries/innings. Very misleading.

2014-09-28T05:38:15+00:00

bearfax

Guest


Thing is Rellum, there arent, at this stage many other options for No 6. There are five outstanding batsmen we have and then a cluster for the rest. Using the method I used before, though recognising it is quite limited but gives an idea of consistency which is what you are after for tests, batsmen's rates of making first class centuries per number of innings are as follows. First the top 5 Warner: 6.5 Clarke: 6.9 Rogers: 7.0 Hughes: 7.9 Smith : 8.5 There is of course Silk with 5.5 but that's only off 22 innings and too small a sample at this stage The rest are as follows who look test aspirants: Cosgrove: 9.9 Watson: 11.2 Khawaja: 11.4 Burns: 11.5 Maxwell: 12 Lynn: 13 Carters: 13 White: 13.2 Maddinson: 14.2 Shaun Marsh: 16.1 Haddin: 16.5 Doolan: 17.2 Wade: 17.9 Cooper: 18 Henriques: 29.3 Mitch Marsh: 33 Whiteman: 36 There may be a few I missed and it certainly not an accurate picture of performances which fluctuate. Some Like Maddinson, Marsh and Silk are still very young and will surely improve. But it gives a general picture that Australia has 5 outstanding batsmen in Rogers,Warner, Clarke, Smith and Hughes. There is then a cluster of good players with Cosgrove leading the group. But you can see that Maxwell, who has actually played fewer first class matches than Mitch Marsh is up there and potentially one you would expect to improve. Others of note are Khawaja and Burns, despite some ordinary seasons. They have the talent. And Doolan who has a test spot. Hardly one you would expect to be in a test side..a fringe player at best.

2014-09-28T03:01:59+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


I know you are. I am saying numbers of centuries over a career is a pointless stat. Some of those innings where centuries were not scored were years ago and relate to nothing now. Form is the better guide. That Maxwell scored 2 centuries recently and Marsh has scored one double century and a number of 50 plus scores would indicate they are both in form...not that one is better than the other. You are using a measure that says Maxwell was better 3 years ago so he must be better now. That's where stats are almost pointless.

2014-09-28T02:57:20+00:00

Quitwhinging

Guest


Rellum where have I have said Maxwell should get a gig? And surprisingly to many people Maxwell has a very respectable first class average of 41 with nearly 1900 runs so he's obviously more than a slogger

2014-09-28T02:53:24+00:00

Quitwhinging

Guest


Don Freo if you had bothered to read the entire discussion I was pointing out to Rellum how many centuries Marsh and Maxwell have in their first class innings, nothing to with form

2014-09-28T02:02:34+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


Quitwhinging, I am not suggesting Marsh be picked either, are you suggesting 4 in 48 is good enough? Both Marsh and Maxwell have FC records that are not worthy of a top six spot in the Australian team, Many here are cherry picking stats to back up their assertions of who should be picked. The truth is neither have made a strong case and the chairman of selectors has said as much, Literally about Maxwell. Both of these guys are in the squad because the selectors think they have potential and their T20 and one day form. I wish people would stop trying to invent reasons for why both of these guys should be in the team.

2014-09-27T09:16:38+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


'Whinging...Anyone weighing up form, even with only half a brain engaged, would not consider form that is 30 or 40 innings old. As you consider the merits of Marsh or Maxwell, to consider performance from 2,3 or 4 years ago is not useful to any argument. You measure players on form, not history.

2014-09-27T09:08:18+00:00

Quitwhinging

Guest


Rellum are you suggesting that a person who has to 2 centuries in 66 innings deserves a place in front of someone who has 4 centuries in 48 innings? You say Maxwell's stats don't warrant a top 6 spot then I'd love to know how Marsh warrants a spot.

2014-09-27T04:47:22+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


Quitwhinging is suggesting Marsh's numbers are padded out from one big score, but fails to acknowledge Maxwell's numbers are equally padded out by one game where he score runs of equal proportion to Marsh's 200.

2014-09-27T02:54:48+00:00

Gregor

Roar Rookie


In Shane Watsons last 49 first class innings he's made 1796 runs at 36.65 and made 3 centuries, 2 against a very poor England side and 1 against mid table Div 2 Worcestershire, whats your point.

2014-09-27T02:03:19+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


Were Maxwell's are not padded by the two centuries he scored in the one game? Maxwell has managed four centuries in 48 first class innings. That is not good enough for someone to play in the top six of the test side.

2014-09-26T23:16:19+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Rellum...How dare you? It is left wing and macchiato in Freo. He must be chomping on the wrong mung beans then. Are there any turbo powered chia seeds? Bottom line is...a fast bowler who no longer bowls fast might soon be listening to fat ladies singing...regardless of how skinny he is.

2014-09-26T12:25:17+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


Don- Glad to see a right winger trying to move away from the standard latte sipping sledges. I was starting to worry about their creativity. Any change in Siddle's body is nothing to do with his lack of meat as protein powder for example would be used as a substitute. All those body builders chug that stuff down more than meat you know. He may have lost size but that would be a deliberate training decision. It is more important to have a strong core than arms any way for bowling quick. Ryan and Tom- If power was key to bowling fast then rugby league players would all be able to bowl 150k's plus. Speed comes from timing, flexibility, technique and those fast twitch fibres. For example if you are not using your non bowling arm properly in the bowling action then you will drop a good deal of pace. Sami is one good example. For me Sids looks like he got caught up in being the line and length bowler and they are meant to not worry about speed and just be accurate. Do that and you start to subtly change your action for the worse. I am glad Boof is focused on speed and he may get Sids back to being more of a strike bowler.

2014-09-26T11:54:17+00:00

Tom from Perth

Roar Rookie


Thanks Don. That's a shame. These champions league matches seem to be going to the last over a lot.

2014-09-26T11:53:29+00:00

Tom from Perth

Roar Rookie


That's a good counterexample Ronan. It seems that we agree that it's nevertheless a possible cause of Siddle's substantial drop in pace though.

2014-09-26T11:09:46+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Plus 4 or 5 other innings. He is beginning to sustain excellence with bat and ball.

2014-09-26T11:08:39+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


He was excellent...tight and penetrating...until 3 dud balls.

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