2014 NRL grand final: Who do the stats say will win?

By around 9pm Sunday night we’ll know the identity of the 2014 NRL champions. In the meantime a whole lot of people are all going to have their say about who is going to win and why.

I’ve examined the stats from top to bottom and come up with this earth shattering conclusion: it could go either way.

When these sides met way back in 1967, in their one and only grand final clash, the Rabbitohs won 12-10 courtesy of a Bob McCarthy intercept try.

Just like that game, the statistics suggest this game will be tight.

There is a good reason for why each side will win but, of course, only one can be right. One theory is based on history and a bit of psychology, the other around the relative performance stats of both sides this year.

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Theory one: The Bulldogs win – grand final experience wins grand finals
After Round 10 this season I ran a formula that predicted either Canterbury or Manly would win the grand final this season.

The key reasons for this logic were:

a) there hasn’t been a (genuine) back-to-back premier since the Broncos in 1993

b) the side that wins the title is usually (70 per cent) already in the top four by that stage of the season

c) with the exceptions of Melbourne (1999) and Penrith (2003), a side without grand final experience in the last five or six seasons only wins a decider when they are also playing a side with similar inexperience: the Broncos (1992), Wests Tigers (2005), St George Illawarra (2010).

The Bulldogs played in the 2012 decider and have nine players backing up from that game if Michael Ennis plays. Further, Tony Williams played in Manly’s 2011 premiership side.

Conversely, the Rabbitohs were in equal eighth spot after Round 10 and they have not played in a grand final for 43 years.

The Rabbitohs only have Greg Inglis and Lote Tuquiri (14 years ago) who have played in grand finals.

The great Gus Gould once said that it can take you about a quarter of the game to feel a part of your first grand final – and by that time the game may already be gone.

So for the Bulldogs, grand final experience – and the Rabbits’ lack of it – is the key to winning the premiership decider. The experience they gained from their loss in 2012 will put steel in their resolve and they’ll be focused on the task at hand from the kick off.

The Rabbits may not know what hit them.

Theory two: The Rabbitohs win – on paper they are clearly the better side
The reason the Rabbitohs finished in third spot this season is that they are a damn good team who are superior to the Bulldogs in pretty much every aspect. They will win this match as a result of those truths.

The only stats where the Bulldogs are better than the Rabbitohs are fairly innocuous: they make around 16 extra metres a match and they offload 2.4 times more than the Rabbitohs. In every other statistical aspect the Rabbitohs have the advantage.

The major differences are as a result of the Rabbits’ stellar defence. The boys from Redfern miss 4.3 fewer tackles a game than the Bulldogs, and concede a whopping 239 fewer metres than their opponents.

However, their attack has been brilliant this year as well. Of their 26 matches so far this season they have won 14 of them by 13 or more points. Of the 14 games they played against the other sides that finished in the top eight they’ve won eight and lost six.

The cold reality for the Bulldogs is that 91 per cent of the last 31 grand finals dating back to 1984 (including both in 1997) have been won by a team who secured the second chance, like the Rabbitohs did this season.

In those 30 seasons, a team has made the grand final from sudden-death positions on 12 occasions (40 per cent of the time). However, only on three occasions (9 per cent) have they won the title.

In 1989 the Canberra Raiders were the first team to win from lower than third spot, coming from fourth. The Broncos went one better in 1993, coming from fifth to win the title. The finals were expanded to a top eight in 1995 for the first time and Canterbury Bankstown won from sixth place. They were the last team to win from lower than fourth spot.

In the subsequent 18 seasons the Bulldogs (1998), St George (1999), Cowboys (2005), Parramatta (2009), Roosters (2010) and the Warriors (2011) have all made the decider from outside the top four only to lose.

The questions

Where will the Bulldogs get the points from?
With Josh Morris down on form, where will the Bulldogs get the points they need to win from?

Tim Lafai and Mitch Brown are the only Bulldogs players to have scored 10 or more tries this season. So while the Rabbits’ right-side defence of Dylan Walker and Alex Johnston will have their work cut out for them, the rest of the Dogs attack could be accused of being a bit toothless. Josh Jackson and Tony Williams might be the answer.

Which Sam Burgess will turn up?
I’m a huge ‘Big Sam’ fan and I’m sad that this is his last game in the NRL. How he performs in this match will have a huge bearing on the result.

While his 158 metres and 34 tackles a game, 72 tackle breaks, 12 line breaks and 10 tries have been mammoth, his propensity for errors and conceding penalties can destroy his game. He has given away 16 penalties this season and committed 29 errors. Souths can’t afford him to have a poor game.

Who must perform?
Greg Inglis didn’t tie for the Dally M on Monday night but he is mentioned in the same breath as Jarryd Hayne and Johnathan Thurston. When on form he is nearly unstoppable, breaking tackles, scoring and setting up tries. If he fires it is hard to see the Bunnies losing.

Sam Burgess is almost as vital to Souths’ chances as Inglis is. Can he perform on the big stage?

Adam Reynolds will need to be at his playmaking best in this game.

Josh Reynolds burst onto the scene in 2012 with his incisive attacking skills. Latterly he’s been better known for his niggle and brain explosions. He’ll need to niggle for two if Ennis doesn’t play, while also guiding his team around the park, but he can’t afford any brain explosions.

Plenty have been singing the praises of Englishman James Graham in recent weeks. A prop forward who averages 70 or more minutes a match, while making huge metres and masses of tackles, is a rare thing. Ray Price used to be called ‘Mr Perpetual Motion’, but Graham owns the title now.

Lafai has become the Bulldogs main attacking weapon this year. If the Bulldogs are to win he’ll have to have a game that will give Walker and Johnston nightmares for years to come.

The dark horses
Tony Williams can be a mixed bag. One day he is the mighty T-Rex, swatting away would-be tacklers as he smashes through the line, the next he is an error-prone lump who misses tackles. If the Bulldogs ever needed him to have a big one it is now.

John Sutton is finishing the season in the second row and out of the five-eighth role. While his stats are down on previous seasons, his try and line break assists are still excellent. If he has a big game it could well tip the balance.

So who will win?
My heart tells me that we’ll see the Cardinal and Myrtle triumph and their long-suffering faithful will go berserk.

While the statistically predicted score is 20-16 to the Rabbitohs, based on both teams’ results against other top eight sides this season, it could be a big win to the Rabbitohs.

Having said that, my head says that the occasion will get to the Rabbitohs and the Bulldogs’ far superior grand final experience will see them win the premiership in a tight one.

The Bulldogs by 4.

All the stats you need for the big game

The history

Rabbitohs 2014 results

Bulldogs 2014 results

Comparative attack stats

Comparative defence stats

The referees

Shayne Hayne

Gerard Sutton

Top try scorers

Top try assists

Top line breaks

Top tackle breaks

Top metres

Top tacklers

Top penalty conceders

Top errors

Top missed tackles (average)