It is Sydney’s Spring version of Super Saturday – nine black type races, three majors – with the feature race the $500,000 Group l Epsom Handicap (1600m).
The history is with the four-year-olds, with the last five winners in that age bracket.
A most interesting edition of the Flight Stakes (1600m) will be run. First Seal and Winx are the two key Sydney fillies, while Melbourne will be represented by Peter Moody and his unbeaten filly, Thinking Of You, who was very impressive last time out at Caulfield.
Spillway is taking the Tawqeet path from 2006 in order to get to the Caulfield Cup. He is way down in the order of entry for the classic, and needs to win the Metropolitan (2400m) to earn a start in the final field. He has been well supported in betting and was an impressive winner here in the Autumn.
We will start off with Epsom.
As is the case with all feature races over the Randwick mile, you need a horse that can run beyond 1600m, and be proven over 2000m. The horse that fits that criteria is He’s Your Man.
We saw in his Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) win that he has a devastating turn of foot when ridden off the speed and saved for the straight, unlike his start prior where he was ridden upside down due to circumstances. A tough 2000m run before coming back to a Group l mile has been a proven winning formula with Chris Waller in the past and this horse fits that criteria nicely.
She hasn’t won for 18 months, but you can’t deny how well Royal Descent is racing at the moment. Tried her guts out first-up behind Tiger Tees in the Warwick, then was nabbed right on the peg by Hawkspur in the Chelmsford before being beaten comfortably in second place by Sacred Falls in the George Main. She is clearly the best horse in the race, and although her long losing streak is a concern, she is another who will be very strong at the end of 1600m.
Hooked won a farcical run edition of the Cameron Handicap (1500m) during the Newcastle Carnival, but full credit to Blake Shinn and John Thompson. The horse led all the way and won quite comfortably. That race used to be a good guide towards the Epsom, but it has lost its class in recent years. Still, this horse came oh so close to winning a couple of big ones during the Autumn, so we know he handles the class, and is another who is proven at 2000m and beyond. Great outside chance.
Selections
He’s Your Man (6) on top for the magic man, Joao Moreira, to beat Royal Descent (2), Hooked (8) and Toydini (3), who was good late in the George Main.
The Flight Stakes is such a fascinating contest. The depth probably isn’t as strong as what it has been in previous years, but there is plenty of intrigue around it.
The filly I’m most confident about running the mile is Thinking Of You. She was very impressive on debut at Wodonga, then went to straight to city grade at Caulfield and was even more impressive, spacing her rivals and really savaging the line at the end of 1400m, telling me she’ll have no qualms running the mile. She has a stack of upside in her and I just have a query about the other pair running 1600m compared to her.
Winx surprised many with her demolition job first up in the Furious Stakes (1400m) on a bottomless surface, then went to the Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) and couldn’t quite sprint with Earthquake when she put the foot down. She eventually picked her up, but couldn’t peg back First Seal, who got the inside split. Winx will turn the tables on that filly. Not sure she can beat the top tip.
There was no fluke about the impressive win of First Seal in the Tea Rose. It was dominant and she was on one rein for a majority of the straight, so the margin perhaps flattered her opposition. 1400m and 1600m at Randwick are two different beasts, and it’ll be interesting to see how she performs over the Randwick mile, but one thing she does have is class, and as we know with these fillies, they might not run the distance, but their class can get them home.
Selections
Those three should fill the trifecta. Thinking Of You (6) ahead of Winx (1) and First Seal (2). For fourth, I’ll put in Press Report (3), who was solid in the Golden Rose.
The Metropolitan is a race with great depth and a host of legitimate winning chances.
I will put La Amistad on top. Many were quick to pot her after her flop in the Kingston Town, but she was ridden a touch too close to the speed. She then backed up seven days later in the Hill Stakes (2000m) and really had no chance, given Shinn walked them in front on Junoob and gave those from the back no chance. This mare finally gets to a 2400m handicap, and the last time she ran under these conditions she spanked her rivals by four lengths being eased down.
Olly probably hasn’t watched a replay of his ride on Spillway in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) and for good reason – it was a howler. He kept running into dead ends and was never really extended until the final 50m. Comes back to the scene of his most impressive performance since coming to Australia, back in the Autumn when winning the JRA Plate. Yet to win beyond 2200m, but he certainly gives the impression he’ll run the trip. It is a must-win for the horse in terms of the Caulfield Cup, and he’ll go close.
Definitely have something each way on Kingdoms. He was a bit of an enigma when with John O’Shea and never really fulfilled his potential, but in the six months he has been with Eagle Farm trainer Brian Smith, he has been very impressive, winning a Listed race on debut for Smith, then placing at the same level. He was spelled, trialled brilliantly, then had no luck first up before coming to Sydney and really catching the eye with his second to He’s Your Man in the Kingston Town, making up a stack of ground from the back. Went to the trials last Friday and looked very good there, winning under a tight hold from Larry Cassidy. He’ll run 2400m no worries, and is certainly up to this level.
Selections
La Amistad (7), over Spillway (3), big watch on Kingdoms (10), then Bagman (2).
In other races on the card, Hallowed Crown will bolt in the Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) and remain unbeaten, while Hawkspur and Rising Romance should fight out the Craven Plate (2000m).
I’m keen on Famous Seamus to win the Premiere Stakes (1200m), but keep an eye on Sincero, who has trialled brilliantly.
With the babies at the start of the program, Gai Waterhouse will win the Gimcrack Stakes (1000m) with any of her quartet, while Sooboog and Vancouver should fight out the Breeders Plate (1000m).
kv joef
Roar Guru
Scotty did you know ... that the Racing Minister whoever(?) is appointing 3 new board members to RNSW right now and looking for nominations - serious. i reckon you should dust of you CV and let rip. actually i'm submiting an article about some issues on tues/wed that i hope will generate an input from racing-roarers. Busy today :). i think we both feel a discussion of racing issues is important even though sometimes we have done it from different perspectives. But debate and discussion right now in the history of our racing-game a necessity. we might not get another chance once the 5/10 year plans (?) are put in place.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Dont wanna be a party pooper but yet again we have another major race day in Sydney with small fields. This is a direct link to poor administration ie RNSW and the ATC. The Minister should get involved and heads should roll.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
What about Nostradamus today? I thought his golden rose run was good, but hampered b being on the inside going whilst STW, scissor kick and hallowed crown were stolling around the fastlane down the middle. At $6 i think he could be worth something. Cant take odds on that is crazy money for Hallowed Crown.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
The weights are an absolute disgrace for a handicap. I think from memory, there is a 30 points rating gap between the top and bottom yet only 3.5kg difference.
kv joef
Roar Guru
on another thread i mentioned how the Newcastle cup / metro was always considered a legitimate pathway to the Cups. as an old novocastrian, i noticed that another (upper) Hunter Valley old boy had decided to take the Newcastle Cup / metro in search for greater prizes. Pete Snowden, a little younger than me but of the same ilk, same generation. Many people probably are unaware that Pete's family is a noted HV racing family of several generations, and he had the makings of a top trainer (good jock before that) before he joined Vic Thompson and Crown Lodge. it's always tough in the bush for a young bloke trying to make his way. no prisoners are taken. Pete has won nearly countless black-type but i know what pleasure Disclaimer's win would have given him. for HV boys winning the Newcastle Cup means a lot more than just winning the local cup. and even though, pete's now international a-class i know that win would have been special, v.special. so with that i'll be giving Disclaimer a sentimental cheer ... and i thought his run in the NCup was a good as anything else coming into this race.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Ninth Legion for me in the Epsom. Has a sense of timing about him, and I love that weight drop from the Shannon. I just hope he's not ridden too close to the speed, in the third or fourth pair would do me. Thinking of You will bolt in and, if she pulls up well, will win the Thousand Guineas too. I'm with La Amistad in the Metrop too. Her record at 2000m and below: 8: 0-1-2. Her record at 2100m and beyond: 6: 5-0-0. Bigger field, stronger tempo, step up to the suitable trip. Tick, tick, tick. That said, she's not well weighted, at all, and is also a bit under the odds for mine.
kv joef
Guest
james, you are right about the 58kg. the interesting thing about boban is that he has been handicapped off 114 from his spring/autumn peak of 117. But yes ... never a good sign when the handicapper slides a horse from international G1 company (115+) back to the pack. i think he has to stand up tomorrow ... Here's Your Man seems a bit like Weary to me so who knows what will happen there? I was surprised to see Toydini moved to Randwick with the unfortunate dispersal of the GWalter WFarm stable. Guy had a particular way of handling horses and was strict with the way his staff handled them. i thought they might have kept him at home(WFrm) to ease the disruption. Anyway i am talking about a Hall-of-Famer, Team-Hawkes so i shouldn't be concerned ... i wish 3rd generation trainer JThompson all the best post tinkler but i'm thinking the same as you with hooked.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Re Kingdoms he was an absolute weighted special when he won that race in Brisbane. He looks a good chance in Metrop though. Gee I thought Wish Come True was good overs too. He would have won the Newcastle cup with a softer run last start. Wintered in Brisbane and Gelded before this preparation, he could be the surprise packet. Spillway needs to win to assert his claims in Melbourne and you are right he should go close. 2400m is interesting with him. Still need convincing on his English form but this is hardly a difficult race class wise.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
I can't see Boban winning the Epsom. It would be a great effort carrying 58kgs, but I think it will be too much for him. I like Royal Descent, surely she has the form to beat these, but i am concerned that when she headed Hawkspur she took the foot off the gas. Is she consigned to being the eternal bridesmaid? Concerned about Toydini and He's your man. I think that is the trifecta. I think that is also the top lines of betting? Not the strongest Epsom fields really. I can't make an argument for anything else to be honet though. Ninth legion will get good run and could surprise, but I think you can discount Hooked. He had all the favours in the Cameron. I agree on Spillway. Terrible ride last start so going to stick with him. Also agree on Kingdoms. I am a fan! The value runner though is Araldo. $31!! That is good value!
Scuba
Guest
Plenty of recent winners of Doncasters and Epsoms haven't been proven at 2000 - I think that's a theory that should be consigned to the dustbin of history. Boban has been average this spring but even an average Boban should be too good for this bunch. Think you're being kind when you described the Metrop as a race of great depth. The fact that you've got the winner of a listed race as your top selection gives a more realistic view of the field. Spillway a big chance to end David Hayes' Group 1 drought. Really like Rising Romance in the Craven Plate. Will have a couple of dollars on something in the 2yo races but they are more a watch and learn experience. No doubt if Gai wins either race she'll declare the horse as a special in the Golden Slipper.