So the final siren has sounded and brought an end to season 2014, heralding the start of the Rabbitohs first premiership celebrations for 43 years.
But what it also heralded is the horrible realisation that the footy is over until next March. That’s five months of trying to act like cricket and the English Premier League are exciting enough to have us not yearn for our footy.
That’s more than 150 days in which we will continually hear how the A-League is growing ever more popular and we truly wish that we cared as much as they say we should.
For many of us, we will be willing the 2015 season to come early and hypothesising what it will bring.
There is no time like the present to start predicting what next year will bring, although I should be gun shy after some pretty poor predictions during the finals – including explaining all the reasons why the Rabbitohs would beat the Bulldogs and then tipping the Doggies anyway. I’m going to have another slash outside off and have a go at predicting what is going to happen next year.
Here is what I reckon will happen to the sides that made this year’s top eight.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Last season: fourth This Season: Premiers
What they did well this year
In short: everything. Their ‘roadkill’ defence was almost unbreakable. They conceded the least tries, metres and line breaks in the comp. They also missed the fewest tackles.
In attack, the only significant stat they came less than first in was average metres made per game. They were second best there.
What they did poorly
Not retaining Sam Burgess was probably the biggest failure at the Rabbitohs this year. Although not the captain, there is no doubt that he played the role of talismanic leader throughout the year and definitely in the grand final.
Their best player
There were a lot to choose between but statistically Greg Inglis stands out. His 12 line break assists, 11 try assists, 19 line breaks, 116 tackle breaks, 13 tries and average of 153.1 metres a game are stats of a superstar.
The next big thing
Alex Johnston 21 tries were just a taste of things to come. At just 20 years of age, he has the size, speed and talent of Blake Ferguson but looks to be a level-headed kid. With the right mentoring this guy could become a legend.
Needs to lift
It’s hard to really point the finger at anyone here as Madge Maguire had them all firing.
Recruits of note
The ageing Glenn Stewart arrives from the Sea Eagles and big Tim Grant comes across from the Panthers. Both are very solid and dependable team men.
Losses
Lots of big hits here, none more so than Sam Burgess. It is hard to see the Rabbitohs being as fearsome without him. Ben Te’o and hooker Apisai Koroisau are also big losses.
My Prediction
It was a huge effort winning this year’s title. Along with the loss of such key talent there will also be a loss of hunger. I think they’ll finish somewhere between fifth and eighth spot in 2015.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Last season: seventh This Season: Runners up
What they did well this year
The Bulldogs won a heap of close matches in 2014 in spite of having a whole lot of middling stats. With the exception of the last game of the season, Des Hasler’s boys were able to get the results when they mattered.
What they did poorly
The Bulldogs had real trouble scoring tries. With Josh Morris clearly down on form, they struggled to get across the stripe. Of all the sides that made the eight they were clearly the worst at crossing the line.
Their best player
James Graham was the best at the Bulldogs this season. His 70+ minutes a game, along with his average of 125 metres and 35 tackles, was the rock that the Dogs built their season on.
The next big thing
Tim Lafai may have had a quiet grand final but his nine line break assists, ten try assists, 95 tackle breaks and 14 triess speak of a star on the rise.
Needs to lift
Tony Williams has the size, speed and talent to be a superstar but T-Rex often goes missing. While his 106 metres a game and 70 tackle breaks for the year are ok for a man of his talent, his four trys and five line breaks were poor.
Recruits of note
Getting Michael Lichaa from the Sharks was a bit of a coup as the young rake showed some real promise this year. So too did Curtis Rona at the Cowboys who may add some badly needed attacking strike power. So too would Brett Morris if he is able to unite with his twin at Belmore, as has been reported.
Losses
While Michael Ennis was great for the Bulldogs his best years are probably behind him.
My Prediction
Any side coached by Des Hasler will fight for every inch. The Dogs were on top of the ladder for a good part of the season before their form fell away. Expect them to challenge again in 2015. top-four finish.
Penrith Panthers
Last season: 10th This Season: fourth
What they did well this year
The Panthers moulded and bonded as a team in 2014 under coach Ivan Cleary. They stuck to their game plan so well that even with injuries to crucial players they managed to pull off some stirring wins. Their line breaks and trys conceded were only bettered by the Roosters and the Rabbits.
What they did poorly
The Panthers, for all their defensive prowess, made things hard for themselves by missing the third most tackles and giving away the third most penalties. Furthermore, at the end of the day their 95 tries for the year was just too far off the pace for them to genuinely challenge.
Their best player
Jamie Soward went from strength to strength in 2014. His leadership of the Panthers, especially at the end of the season, was superb. His kicking game is up there with Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston. A superb buy.
The next big thing
There’s a few to choose from here with Adam Docker and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in the side. However, Matt Moylan built upon a great rookie season in 2013 with a consistently classy 2014. On top of his great defence, his ability to set up line breaks and trys is outstanding. Add to that his three match winning field goals and you’ve got a star in the making.
Needs to lift
While he was thrown into the deep end when Peter Wallace did his knee, Will Smith simply has to improve his tackling. His three misses on average a match were often costly and made him a constant target.
Recruits of note
Picking up Apisai Koroisau from the Rabbitohs was an excellent get. He will lend great support to Segeyaro.
Losses
Losing Tim Grant wasn’t ideal but he clearly was back in Ivan Cleary’s pecking order.
My Prediction
It’s no secret that I’m a bit of a fan of the Panthers. However, that’s for good reason. The culture that Cleary and Gould are building out west should be ominous for all the other clubs. I’m expecting a top six finish.
Sydney Roosters
Last season: Premiers This Season: third
What they did well this year
The Roosters attack was fantastic in 2014. They led the way for line breaks, tackle breaks and trys scored. They could and did attack from anywhere.
What they did poorly
Their missed tackles and metres conceded were way up on 2013, and once again they conceded the most penalties of any side in 2014. However, what really cost them was their handling. The Roosters made more errors than any other side in 2014 and those mistakes often cost them games.
Their best player
One of the big issues for the Roosters this year is that no one had an outstanding year. While Friend, Pearce, Cordner and Minichello all looked very good, none excelled.
The next big thing
Now Minichello has sadly gone we finally get to see Roger Tuivasa-Scheck at fullback. His 144 metres on average per game and his 97 tackle breaks are just a taste of things to come.
Needs to lift
James Maloney is unquestionably talented. However, his average of 3.3 missed tackles a game, along with his 38 errors and 23 penalties conceded this season aren’t sustainable.
Recruits of note
Nil
Losses
Anthony Minichello retiring and Sonny Bill Williams returning to rugby has the potential to seriously disrupt the Roosters.
My Prediction
The Roosters have too much talent to not be serious contenders in 2015. Top six finish.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Last season: Runners Up This Season: fifth
What they did well this year
Manly did most things well until they were cruelled by injury late in the season. In particular, their defence was often superb.
What they did poorly
For a side that has been feted for their attacking prowess in the past, they failed to fire in attack this season as well as they needed to. They only ranked eighth for trys scored in 2014, having been second in 2013.
Their best player
While all the fuss was around keeping Daly Cherry-Evans, Steve Matai was allowed to depart. His last season for the Sea Eagles was arguably his best, scoring 13 tries, averaging 100 metres a game and breaking 60 tackles.
The next big thing
Clint Gutherson didn’t have many opportunities in 2014 but when he got them he made them count. From his three outings he averaged 121 metres, set up three trys and scored three himself.
Needs to lift
For a player who is being prized above all others at Brookvale, Cherry-Evans needs to fire. His 15 try assists and three tries in 2014 need to rise significantly in 2015.
Recruits of note
Nil
Losses
There are a fair few losses for the Sea Eagles but the worst are probably Watmough and Glen Stewart. It is hard to see the Manly defence being as well drilled without those two stalwarts.
My Prediction
Manly have been contenders for the best part of a decade but their star may now be on the wane. An eighth or ninth-placed finish.
North Queensland Cowboys
Last season: eighth This Season: sixth
What they did well this year
The Cowboys attacked and defended well in 2014. Led by Thurston and Matt Scott they were capable of big wins. Scott and his forwards led their team to the most metres in the NRL.
What they did poorly
The Cowboys were appalling away from home, winning only three games on the road. It cost them a better ladder finish and a good shot at the title.
Their best player
Johnathan Thurston is arguably the best player in the game right now and certainly the best general going around. His 19 line break assists and 31 try assists are the best for a playmaker in the NRL.
The next big thing
Michael Morgan certainly covered well for the injured Lachlan Coote. His 10 trys, 102 metres a game, 76 tackle breaks and 18 try assists were superb.
Needs to lift
Jason Taumalolo needs to find consistency. One moment he’s busting tackles, making huge metres and scoring tries, the next he’s dropping balls and going missing. Oh, and James Tamou needs to take a walk through the room of mirrors.
Recruits of note
Ben Hannant from the Broncos will be a great replacement for Ashton Sims, and Jake Granville may well be the answer at hooker that the Cows have been looking for since Payne left.
Losses
Tariq and Ashton Sims could be quite big losses. However, the retirement of Brent Tate is likely to hurt the most.
My Prediction
I can’t get these guys right. I thought they’d challenge for the title this year but they fell short again. They’ll make the top eight once more in 2015 but who knows where.
Melbourne Storm
Last season: sixth This Season: seventh
What they did well this year
By the high standards of the Storm, they didn’t do much that well this season. However, their attack and defence were good enough to get them into the top eight. They made very few errors and their missed tackles were fairly low.
What they did poorly
Their tackle breaks were the fourth lowest in the NRL and their run metres per game plummeted from being the best in 2013 to being the eighth this season.
Their best player
It is too hard to split Cooper Cronk with his 25 try assists, Jesse Bromwich with his 144 metres per match, Billy Slater with his 131 metres per match, 14 line breaks, 12 tries and nine try assists and the brilliance of Cam Smith – so I won’t.
The next big thing
Craig Bellamy has a reputation for turning meat and potatoes players into stars. With the arrival of Tom Learoyd-Lahrs he has gotten himself an out of favour star. Big Tom, the former NSW Origin rep, could well explode in 2015.
Needs to lift
Tohu Harris had a break out first season. However, 2014 saw him average under 100 metres a game and his Mad Monday would have featured him doing the nudie run – he didn’t score once in 2014.
Recruits of note
Tom Learoyd-Lahrs could be a brilliant recruit.
Losses
Losing their ever reliable Ryan Hoffman will surely hurt, as will their leading try scorer in 2014, Sisa Waqa, who is going to the Raiders.
My Prediction
While there is Smith, Cronk and Slater you can expect this side to win more than they lose. However, age is wearying them and opposition sides are increasingly exploiting their weaker defence out wide. They will finish from eighth to eleventh.
Brisbane Broncos
Last season: 12th This Season: eighth
What they did well this year
The Broncos stats in attack and defence weren’t too bad this year, and were a vast improvement on 2013. They scored the fifth most tries and conceded the sixth least. They were also the fourth best line breakers.
What they did poorly
The Broncos broke the second least tackles in 2014, only the Titans were worse.
Their best player
It is hard to go past Corey Parker and Justin Hodges for the Broncos’ best player. However, Ben Hunt had a spectacular year. His 13 tries, 64 tackle breaks, 19 line breaks and 19 try assists were superb. How he didn’t get the Dally M for best halfback is a mystery.
The next big thing
The poaching of Anthony Milford was a major coup for Brisbane. Under the tutelage of Wayne Bennett the kid could become a superstar.
Needs to lift
Ben Barba is between a rock and a hard place. He had a poor season in 2014 to follow his mediocre 2013. Now, with the arrival of Bennett, Milford and probably Boyd, he needs to make a case for his spot in the starting side.
Recruits of note
Anthony Milford.
Losses
Hannant, Granville and Yow Yeh are all great players who will be missed.
My Prediction
Supercoach Wayne Bennett is back and you can expect the Broncos juggernaut to start rolling again. With a little bit of luck they might even make the top four. I reckon around a fifth or sixth-placed finish.
aamer
Guest
ok its now 2015 and bulldogs have like 9 new star recruits and they chose brett morris for fullback and thts a good choice so dogs are already red hot favourites to win this years grand final as well go see on sportbet there are betting the dogs to win the 2015 grand final at 1.50 but bets are against my religion so yeh
Bearfax
Guest
I understand why Tim has put Manly down as an 8th or 9th position side next year and in the end he may be right. But making predictions this far out is fraught with danger and Tim's knowledge of Manly is obviously somewhat limited. It should also be pointed out that critics have suggested similar results for Manly over the past couple of seasons since Dessie left and have had substantial egg on their face. Manly are certainly at this stage not as strong as they were three or four years ago. They've lost a lot of their premiership winning side and have been remarkably competitive despite those losses thanks to the players pride and some excellent coaching by Toovey, who is in reality just as effective as Dessie. Manly will probably lose Watmough. Maybe Matai and Brett Stewart, though I suspect those two will remain, but thats yet to be seen. But Manly has successfully raised up new stars for many generations through some damn good coaching. And though they will struggle without Glenn Stewart and Watmough, its to be remembered Stewart played almost no football last season and Watmough was playing much of the year injured. Add to that, the fact that King was also out for much of the year and Buhrer, Symonds and Ballin were out for lengthy periods and Manly did remarkably well to come in before the finals at equal first.. But I would remind Tim that some unlikely top players in Lawrence, Horo etc have risen to take on responsibility. There are also a few classy young forwards in Jake Trbojevic, Sao, Knight, Jamil Hopoate and Chee-Kam waiting their chance, while in the backs two champion juniors in Gutherson and Tom Trbojevic, both seen as future Kangaroos, along with in a few years John Hopoate Jnr, already seen as at least as good as his older brother Will , to take their roles in the Manly side. If Manly retains these kids and hold onto Foran and Cherry-Evans (which seems increasingly likely) Manly will be a formidable force again in a year or two....and perhaps in 2015. But Tim's general outlook for the top sides is for the most part understandable though I would certainly see it somewhat differently. Souths for mine are favourites despite the loss of Burgess. Penrith had an armchair ride to the finals this year, but I think they'll be in the hunt. The dogs will threaten if they have both Morris brothers. The Roosters will be there but not quite as strong without SBW and Mini, The Broncs will be on the rise as will the Tigers. Knights and Eels and maybe the Dragons. North Queensland will also be there given they are beginning to no longer rely exclusively on JT. The Storm like Manly are going through a transition period but any side with Bellamy as coach is going to compete
model 67
Guest
Panthers v Cowboys Grand Final 2015.
Jordan
Guest
"Is it too early for 2015 predictions?" Yes, yes it is.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
I reckon Tigers will go extremely close to the 8, before finishing 9th/10th and then like the Panthers, they will have a great next couple of years. Cowboys will either finally crack top four or just flop, they won't finish bottom eight. Titans will take spoon but I reckon they will still upset teams like Easts. Knights to make eight. Panthers will take out premiership. They will have a full roster of great young players eg. Peachey, Cartwright, DWZ who will benefit from off season and learn from 2014 finals experience. I reckon if penrith made the gf they would have faded this year since they would have probably lost, which is why I'll say doggies miss the eight.
Adam
Guest
Hodkinson at full fitness again will go a long way to solving the kicking issue
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
I like reading your and Glenn Innes' comments. (I'm being serious)
The Barry
Roar Guru
Sorry genes are not an element of luck. It may seem unlucky to that one person that they have asthma or whatever but it's largely pre-determined. If you look at a micro level of one persons experiences it's unlucky. If you look macro at the whole population, then 1 in 10 get asthma and it's not luck at all.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I did read it. Of course there's an 'element' of luck. I'm not denying that. You've pulled out a few examples of how souths were 'lucky' to win the comp. that's fine if you look at one side of the equation. What about the bad luck they had during the season? Keary injured in the 9s. Walker and Sutton injured, Te'o 4 week suspension right before the semis. Luke suspended. So the good luck they had balances out with their bad luck if you look at the whole picture and not just cherry pick the moments that suit you. Their bad luck is balanced by the bad luck other teams have. Souths lost Luke for the GF. The dogs lost Ennis. Souths got away with a forward pass, Finucane should have got 10 in the bin. Luck swings both ways by definition. If it doesn't it's not luck. Good teams are able to take advantage when it goes their way and ride it out when it doesn't. A 50/50 event by definition evens out over time. If you flip a coin 100 times and have a difference of 10 in the outcomes- there is a big difference in the end result. If you flip a coin 1 million times and there's a difference of ten it's close enough to 50/50 not to matter. It might never reach 'equilibrium' but the difference is so minute it doesn't matter. However, football games are not determined solely by luck there is a skill element. If you get the worlds best coin tosser who knows which side of the coin to have facing up, knows exactly how much force to apply and how many revolutions to put on the coin the result won't be 50/50. Skill determines the outcome. So I'll accept there are elements of random chance but as I said they balance out over time - when you bother looking at both sides of the equation. There's also a theory called gamblers ruin that even on a genuinely 50/50 event the casino will always win because they have a bigger bankroll. To use the football analogy they have the 'skill' to take advantage of luck when it turns their way. The punter might get ahead, but eventually the casino will go on a big enough run that they will bust the punter. The punter will look at that window of results and say "gee I was unlucky, it came up heads 99/100" but ignore the other 1 million flips of the coin, which is what you're doing. You put it down to luck if you like. I'm saying souths win because they were the best team, especially in the semi finals.
Glenn Innes
Guest
Also if you had actually taken the effort to read my post (which you obviously did not you looked bit did not read it) at no stage was I suggesting that individual achievement is purely the product of random chance, you say I said it but I certainly did not.. What I actually said is there is always an element of random chance in every aspect of life, (you can't choose your genes for eg) including football games and given that chance by it's very definition is random there is no logical reason why it should reach an equilibrium over any given period. but the longer the time frame (for eg the more games you play) the smaller it's influence becomes,that is all I said nothing more nothing less.Everything beyond that are your words not mine.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Luck might get Jonathan Thurston a shot at field goal. Natural skill and hard work determines that he kicks it.
The Barry
Roar Guru
That's such a cop out...by your definition everything ever done is put down to luck. There's not a giant galactic chocolate wheel determining who gets cancer. There are environmental and genetic factors as well. 1 in 10 people in Australia have asthma. I have asthma. My dad has asthma. One of my sons has asthma. Wow - we must be the unluckiest family on earth. At 9-1 the odds of all 3 of us having asthma are 729-1. Of course there are factors other than luck involved. It's just a rubbish way of sitting back and bagging the achievements of others by saying it's luck.
NSWelshman
Guest
Chui.............the maximum Manly is obliged to pay if he wants to or decides to leave is the back ended portion of the past few years, which totals approximately $300,000.........they are not obligated to payout the difference of the Eels contract! If he didn't have a contract with Manly for 2015 then I'd pay him his $300k & tell him to close the door behind him!
Glenn Innes
Guest
The Barry - I do not agree that luck inevitably evens out over a defined period of time, indeed the very definition of luck (random good or ill fortune over which we have no control) means that there is no logical argument for why luck should reach some kind of equilibrium indeed quite the opposite. Without getting into a philosophical debate about the nature of luck (or chance if you like) with regards to statistics, reproduciibilty or if you like sample size is what reduces the influence of luck. Take the EPL for example, teams play thirty eight games home and away and the team with the most points is crowned champion.Luck still plays a part, you can lose key players to injury, win a couple of games on the back of fluky strikes or questionable penalties, but the role of luck is diminished (although not completely eliminated far from it) by the influence of reproducibility. To use a simpler analogy we all know that flipping a coin is an act of pure chance,there are two possible results and both are equal in the probability of their occurrence,But we also know the less times you flip it the more likely you will not get a fifty fifty result and indeed even if you flip it a million times you will still be incredibly unlikely to get exactly five hundred thousand each for heads and tails but you will be very very close to exactly fifty percent.The less you flip it the bigger the variance and the less likely you are to hit fifty fifty ie the bigger the influence of luck .. In the NRL teams play twenty four rounds in which all the teams do not meet twice,(and the teams are restricted via a salary cap as to how much talent they can accumulate) after that half the teams head to Bali or wherever and the other half head off to a quasi knockout cup comp in which the champion is decided via a series of one off games, ie where the reproducibilty factor is much lower and luck has a much higher weighting. South's did not finish first they finished third, the team that finished second and possibly would have finished first was decimated by injury (bad luck) The team that beat them twice this season home and away was knocked out for them by somebody else in a game decided by a single point etc etc, there is a big element of chance involved in winning the NRL grand final which is why it is so damn hard to go back to back., you are unlikely to get that lucky twice in a League with a salary cap. Of course you get some people who deny luck...you make your own luck etc, and while there are some small kernels of truth in this it is really absurd to deny luck or to believe that it ever reaches a complete equilibrium, as if an individual has complete control over the forces of the universe.The ten year old kid with terminal cancer did he make his own (bad) luck,Of course not, fate chance luck call it whatever you like simply dealt him or her a very nasty hand.Likewise Football teams are not entirely in control of their destiny luck does play a part and the smaller the number of games the bigger the part it plays.
paul
Guest
Im predicting sths roosters pennies cows and tiges broncos . Still confident easts and sths will do well they have massive talent and easts were still winning when sbw was out. Mini will be big loss but blake fergo is the equivalent of ingliss wn his mind is on the job .I think Souths will go good again hlenn stewart is a great buy and I rate tim grant dylan walker is champion in the making and I have him in front of jennings at the mo and of course ingliss
Shouts Chen
Guest
Hope Cronulla may make finals and win the flag.
Joel
Guest
and then there is luck* with the Refs call hey ....
Rod
Guest
The Roosters will be interesting, they got got Sonny to the club in 2013, they went from the out house to the penthouse . What's the odds that if Blake gets the green light, that the roosters go from the penthouse to the out house . Robbo maybe a great coach, I don't think you can underestimate the positive effect he had at the club. I'm positive that Blake will lower those standards Roosters will still blow teams away, but I thinking bottom 8 myself..
Chui
Guest
I don't see what's not that simple, but I suspect that we are actually driving in a similar direction. If dollars earned were all that matters, he would be staying without complaint next season. This clearly isn't the case. My point really is that without the consent of Watmough himself, he is entitled to earn $970K (if that's what his contract is worth ) next season. Whatever Parramatta can't pay him, Manly are obliged to pay the difference. I just find the thought of paying him a single razoo to play for someone else abhorrent. I'd even be happy to "cut off my nose...." and make him play reggies. :)
Benny
Guest
I agree. I wasn't keen on tipping dogs for MP but I wasn't keen on tipping anybody. If dogs get stewart or hoffman though I think they will be right up there