It’s a simple equation for Port Adelaide in 2015 – a grand final or failure. It’s a brutally fine line they’ll walk, but it’s what comes with expectation. It’s justified. Impossible to shy away from.
The Power tore their way up the ladder in 2013 and then staked their claim as a contender in 2014. In 2015 they must contend.
Entering the season, they will sit at a justified third in the premiership betting at $5.50, just shy of the 2014 grand finalists. Despite this placing, confidence is oozing from Alberton and AFL fans are convinced the Power will be a top-two side this season and carry that through to a genuine premiership tilt.
This means, rightly so, Power fans aren’t afraid to use the P-word – and power to them! But I’d suggest they hold off until the first five rounds are past, because by then they could be the premiership favourite, or in early season shambles.
Port Adelaide open their season with the toughest road trip in football, travelling west to face the Dockers at Patersons. This will be the third time the Power have made this trip in their past five matches. In Round 23 they lost 97-105, losing their top-four placing in the process.
In the elimination final they produced a stunning effort, charging back from a 31-point deficit in the second quarter to win by 22-points. Up against a home team (and crowd) that have spent all summer brewing on what might have been, it’s hard to see the Dockers losing this match.
Round 2 brings the Swans to Adelaide Oval, a side the Power failed to defeat in two 2014 attempts. In Round 13 they fell agonisingly short (98-94) at the SCG in one of the games of the season. Remember that goal Buddy kicked from 70? Yep, that one.
In Round 20 they were roundly beaten again, 58-84.
As the first home game of the season, against a fellow premiership contender, the Power faithful will pack the rafters and bring the noise. But despite the advantage this creates, there is no way to mark this game other than dangerous.
Round 3 sees the Power’s first game in Melbourne at Docklands against the ‘Roos; North being one of eight teams to best the Power in 2014, winning an identical fixture 90-97. A win to North Melbourne in this match would almost cement them a reputation as a bogey team for the Power, after having also got the better of them in Round 6, 2013, after the Power started the season with a five-match winning streak.
With opening rounds against the Crows and Lions, North Melbourne could enter this match with wind in their sails, highly determined to get the better of a premiership contender as they aim to stake a claim on that very label in 2015.
Then Round 4 – who else would it be but Hawthorn?
This fixture last year saw 52,233 through the Adelaide Oval turnstiles to witness the home side notch up their biggest scalp of the season with a 14-point win.
Their next 2015 meeting, of course, the preliminary final – a crushing 3-point loss.
After their rampaging grand final win, the rest of the competition has good reason to be fearful of the Hawks this season, so it will be intriguing to see how Port fare against the team they would consider their final hurdle to a premiership.
As for Fremantle in Round 1, there will certainly be a 2014 score to settle in this match.
Now some will consider this horror opening to the season to come to an end at the end of Round 4, as it’s a Showdown against the Crows that looms in Round 5. But like all good rivalries, form tends to go out the window in a Showdown, as it did in Round 15 last year when the Crows played out a convincing 76-99 win against an 11 and 2 Power side.
The first four rounds could come heavily into play at this point. If Port Adelaide manage to win three or even all four from the first four games, you’d all but pencil in a Power win. Anything less, and the weight of expectation heaped onto a premiership contender in the lead up to a Showdown could work in the Crows favour.
So the P-word should certainly be on the lips of Power fans this year. They deserve to hold their head high and expect great things from their team. And with such a young squad, we all know 2015 is just year one of a premiership window that could span at least several seasons.
But expectation can be a funny weight to wrangle, and how the Power handle it will be front and centre, all questions answered, by the evening of May 3.
I for one am in camp with the believers. But I’d be watching how the first month of footy pans out, holding onto my p’s until the end of Round 5.
Don Freo
Guest
Those pictures of Colin Sylvia and Ollie Wines...did you just photo shop the jumpers? They look the same. Play the same too. Anyone want Col?
AB
Guest
Erm, having now checked Sportsbet, let me answer my own question. By coincidence, the fine folks at Sportsbet have the top four flag favourites listed in the same order I've listed them above. If my maths is correct, they reckon there's a 77% chance that one of those four will win the flag. But of course, their odds are deliberately short (otherwise they wouldn't be making a profit), so the real odds might be something closer to 85% or 90%. Based on nothing more than gut instinct, that feels about right to me. The next three contenders are North Melbourne (can't see them as serious flag contenders, sorry); Geelong (always dangerous but rebuilding at the moment); and Richmond (yeah....nah).
AB
Guest
Indeed. Premierships aren't won in April. That said, Port would want to win at least 2 of their first 5 games, otherwise they'll be working hard all year to make the top four. If I was putting money on this year's top four, it would be (in no particular order) Hawthorn, Sydney, Port, Freo. Of course, it might not turn out this way. But I can't remember any season where the prospective top four seemed so obvious at the start of the season. Barring any catastrophic run of injuries, I'd be genuinely surprised if at least three of those teams don't make the top four. Quick quiz: what are the odds of any team outside these four winning the flag?
Jack
Guest
Yes because Hawthorn have won the first 5 games the last two seasons. Not.
Balthazar
Guest
Actually, he's more talking about speed of decision making and ball movement a la Hawthorn who he still rates as the team to beat. But yes Freo has been recruiting quick midfielders this year as explosive speed has been a weakness.
Ben
Guest
Those 5 teams in a row is tough, yes but if Port are the real deal they will win all 5. That's what finals are about, outside the top 4 you have to win 4 in a row against the best teams to lift the cup, can't lose a match or you are out.... there is no 3-2 pass mark. The season won't be over if they only win 2 or 3 but it will show they have a gap to fill. Look at the Geelong sides of 5 years ago, did anyone ever think they wouldn't win their first 5 games? No. To be a serious contender you need to be at that level because too much in Footy can happen that you need to be a level above not just in a pack of teams that are all at the same level. Port Magpies would never think they couldn't win all games, the media would (hoped) and they would always come out on top - 9 premierships in 12 years. If we are questioning whether they can win all 5 then it shows they are not quite at the level needed - contender is nice but you need to produce and sit as flag favourite.
anchorman
Guest
How will Port handle being the hunted, rather than the hunters for 2015!! It becomes a different ball game when you show so much in one year and the rest of the sides begin to prowl to bring you down. Fremantle suffered a bit of that last season after playing in the GF in 2013. Going to be intersting
jake
Guest
Port is not saying we will have a Premiership, the media and reporters (like this one) keep hyping it and it's like a cracked record. Secondly Sydney started poorly in 2014 and look where they ended. Yes it is a brutal draw though.
Radelaide
Guest
As you can imagine I've watched the second half of the match a few times and there was a part where Ross came down and picked up a bottle and showed it to Pearce and it looked like he was teaching him to pick up the ball. Then at the end where Wingard got the match sealing goal it all came about because Crowley ran straight past the loose ball chasing Boak and I thought poor Rossy is banging his head against the wall.
Don Freo
Guest
Huh?
Radelaide
Guest
Bit like Rossy showing how an empty Gatorade bottle is the ball and Pearce (or Crowley) should pick it up.
Don Freo
Guest
Nah...that happened when Pearce and Ibbo broke bones just before half time and we didn't have McPh and Johnno to stem the flow. About a 15 goal difference. No worries at all. By the way...'throw their weight around" and run fast? I'd like to see that. Can anyone from Adelaide's port actually multi-skill like that?
Radelaide
Guest
Don't forget Don that Vossy has been instilling a sense of self belief into throwing their weight around and also been working on stopping teams when they get a run on like what happened in rd 23 when you guys got that 9 goal run on.
Radelaide
Guest
Well I was talking about all 5 matches although I do think Freo start well and that is probably the danger match but we can take heart in that if we do lose to them it's not the end of the season. On a side note I've noticed Ross Lyon has been on the front foot this off season saying things like "we are looking better than ever" so I'd say he's really going to be up for rd 1, he's also mentioned how he's tweeking the game plan to more run and gun (like Port :) ) so it will be interesting if they do that because they will be doing it against the best in the business.
Steve J
Roar Guru
Yeah - Freo hate warm weather! Will be good rematch round 1 with Freo being able to call on some players absent in the semi like Luke McP, Johno, and Ballas (a handy All Australian trio). Hopefully they've learned to kick a bit straighter since the finals last year too.
Harry
Guest
Ryman, things are not all that black and White,(ha ha) and you should know that. A Power P, has as much chance as any other contender, don't start by back pedalling, HEAR THE ROAR. Regards H
Don Freo
Guest
I'd think all teams will have blocking, slowing, counter attacking strategies in place for this year. Fitness alone will not be an edge any more. I notice a couple of their stars; Wingard and one of the others are already on lighter duties because of evidence of stress on their bodies. They need a few more tricks and Hinkley is working on disposal efficiency. Lower eight...maybe.
TomC
Roar Guru
I agree, RD. It's also worth noting that Port have had form dips in both of the last two seasons before finishing strongly. This seems to be a particularly resilient team with the confidence to bounce back from a run of poor results.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
That is a brutal opening to the season. However I have to disagree that a season is defined in the first 5 rounds. There a plenty of examples where sides have started slowly to make the top 4 and on the flip side, sides have made a strong start only to bomb out in the second half of the season. I think 2 wins from the first 5 would be a pass mark, 3 or more would be considered a success given the calibre of the opposition.
Radelaide
Guest
The one good thing about the draw is we play our best at the beginning of the season under Hinkley, the weather is fine (if it's still warm it might be a bigger advantage), and we are fresh. Everyone who plays will have come off a really good base because like Wingard said the other day that he might not be available for rd 1 which means the players and coaching staff are taking it seriously and make sure no stone is left unturned. The other thing I just wanted to clarify for Ryman is yes some of our best players are over 25 but we have so many guns in the low to mid 20's range Wines, Wingard, Polec, Hombsch, Neade and more that the window could easily be open for the next 8 years. Carn the Powaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!