I remember footy season 1981 when Margaret, the wonderful lady at reception of James Cook Boys High School, won the tipping comp. She backed it up in 1982.
She shared her secret with me – take the team ahead on the table or the home team if they are equal on points.
Read more from Brian Smith at SmithySpeaks
Staggeringly simple. Does it still work in today’s footy? I have no idea, but I share it with you as I understand how ego-boosting it is to do well in the tipping comp.
While coaching all those years, it used to amaze me how some people got so much more enjoyment watching a footy match when they had a tip involved. These days some of my mates are almost uninterested unless they have a bet riding on the match on TV.
If there is that much fun to be had, it’s time I have a crack.
So what do I have to offer in these new-for-me footy pastures? Not much I fear, but here goes…
With no real form to utilise, tipping in Round 1 must be the toughest.
Every season’s opening round seems to have blow-outs and surprises – just look at last season’s Round 1. Souths by 20 over Roosters. Panthers by 22 over Knights. Dragons by 20 over Tigers. Eels by 20 over Warriors.
All those winners were at home. Surprises? Only Titans beat Sharks away.
I am following a small form line in my first tip. Melbourne have won their past 10 season openers, and nothing the Dragons have done since their last disappointing season suggests they can ruin that record of the Storm.
Souths appear to have no hangover, winning Charity Shield, Nines and World Club Series. Brisbane look solid but lack attacking threat.
The Sea Eagles have been the best ‘character under pressure’ team for many seasons, and despite conjecture over Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran, they will be again in 2015. The Eels might take some time to adjust without Jarryd Hayne.
The Aussie humidity on Saturday arvo at Newcastle favours the Knights over Warriors, and Kurt Gidley back at fullback will add plenty to the home team’s attack and attitude.
Likewise the Queensland humidity favours North Queensland over the Roosters, and Sydney losing Jake Friend – Anthony Minichiello’s co-replacement as captain – to long-term injury could be a real thorn in their start.
The Sharks could have a problem with being too excited about the fresh start given all their issues of last season. But Cronulla’s forwards should dominate, which will make life very difficult for Canberra’s new halves combo Mitchell Cornish and Blake Austin, as well as Super League import Josh Hodgson at dummy half.
The two most difficult games to predict a winner are Panthers vs Bulldogs and Titans vs Tigers.
I can find more reasons for both Titans and Tigers losing, so I am going for a home-team surprise win for the Gold Coast.
The addition of Brett Morris at fullback will make a high percentage difference to many aspects of the Dogs attack and maybe defence (how they made the grand final with a makeshift fullback is still a marvel to me!). All the hype around Panthers to win the comp might be a distraction.
I am clutching aren’t I! Dogs to win.
For those who like a little punt, start the season with a small win by backing the unders on points scored in the season opener in Brisbane.
Have a crack at your own tips in the comments to show me how this tipping caper is done.
MJ
Guest
I don't think there will be any blowouts this weekend, except maybe if the bad Warriors turn up in Newcastle or if Canberra/GC implode. There may be a game or 2 that will sneak into a double figure margin with a late score.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
Scott, they made the grand final and won it. That is no fluke.
G
Guest
You usually fumble in the final game of the year not Round 1! Sorry couldn't help myself, it is good to read articles written by a former NRL coach. Souths Manly Rorters Knights Wests Sharks Panthers Dragons
sham
Guest
I must be missing something as I am not sure why so many people are so keen on the sharks. If we forget last year and compare them to 2013 they have gained Barba but have lost Carney. That is a clear loss. They have gained Ennis and they have a very good pack but I find it hard to get too excited about their backs. Don't get me wrong they will do well this year but without a playmaker of Carney's class I can't see them matching 2013. The raiders could beat them on Sunday but probably won't. The raiders are written off just about every year but I doubt that many of those who do so actually watch them play. They lack confidence at times and their defensive structure and attitude was often very poor last year. They have the potential to make the 8.
The Barry
Roar Guru
...but they finished first for semi finals won which is probably the more important stat on determining who makes the GF.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Love your work Baz!
Luke M
Guest
Big Jamal against his old club against Lafai. Could be the deciding factor in this one.
Luke M
Guest
Not really, he started well but within a month Nightingale was playing fullback.
Dogforlife
Roar Rookie
They can keep writing the dogs off too. Will make winning the premiership that much sweeter this year and next.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Such a tough one that Titans v Tigers as additional factors such as crowd and emotional occasion have to be factored in. If a big crowd rocks up Titans will want to repay the faith on the field. Tigers do have outstanding young talent and Robbie Farah's been looking pretty fit and sharp and if he leads well could get them the game. They also thrashed the Titans at the same venue in round 2 last year. Tough to pick, probably just go with home team and tip Titans.
TriangleFlatDog
Guest
For what it's worth, here are my tips: Bunnies Eels Knights Tigers Cowboys Dogs (specials) Sharks Dragons
Joe
Roar Rookie
Yep, definitely hope the forwards have a field day...Bromwich should be part of the big 4 he has been that good. We've definitely got the size in the forwards. Keen to see how Finucane fits in with the Storm boys, nice strong defender in the middle just what we needed with Hoffy and Norrie gone. Yes, also hoping Greens trial form carries through to the first round....I have also been really impressed with his game especially the Bulldogs trial and he's been a leader in the pre-season so is in top shape.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Very happy Dan - nice to hear for a change. Sarcasm in the written word is very difficult to pick up unless like JB you know where the author is coming from. Those are all critiques I've read about the 2014 bulldogs over the last couple of weeks.
The Barry
Roar Guru
So would I AdelaideWill. I think the tigers will be one of the most entertaining sides to watch. I just fear this match has ambush written all over it for a young and relatively inexperienced side.
Parrafan
Guest
Here is hoping. Parras bench is pretty light though. Only one real prop. Still very interested to see how De Gois will be used. Could be key to darting around a tired defence if the match is close at the end.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Joe, Dont worry about Green, he has been a star in the trials.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
SA They fin 13th for Tries scored thats why
JOHNY BULLDOG
Guest
Nah,keep the faith Joe-Bromwitch & co will have a field day up front-You'll be right mate.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Was initially going to pick Storm because of their opening round streak but the backline that's been selected look a little lightweight...in terms of experience and literally lightweight. Was hoping Fonua would get in but looks like he hasn't overcome his injury. Apart from Slater/Chambers/Cronk the rest are all in the single figure games with Green returning from Super League. Was also hoping either Duffy or Suli would get some game as they have height but it seems they're not ready either from injury or fitness/experience....the two wings picked are both lacking in height and with the Dragons boasting a 6.5ft 103kg winger as a target for decent kickers like Benji/Widdop I think it's going to be a long night on the right wing defence. The above will make it a close game and the difference will be the boot of Widdop because Smith returning from an ankle injury might not get the nod for goal kicks and even if the does has not practised and might be a little tentative. If it goes to Chambers his % is way low and his trial kicking was terrible. As a Storm fan will still back the Storm to continue the streak but not putting money on it.
Kirk
Guest
Manly's pack is the weakest I have seen in many years. They will get done by Parra.