There are always lots of articles about what the Wallabies team should be leading to the World Cup, usually with dreams about debuting players magically making the team and suddenly being Test material, or supposedly clever positional changes.
Let’s get real. Let’s have a look at what the team for the first game actually will be; ie. predict what coach Michael Cheika will actually do, rather than what others think he “should” do.
Barring injury, a big assumption I know, it’s not that hard. The key point is that experience and combinations both count in selection.
1. James Slipper – with Scott Sio on the bench.
2. Stephen Moore (c) – with Tatafu Polota-Nau on the bench. Moore also gets my nod as the captain of the Wallabies.
3. Sekope Kepu – but I’m not sure on who should sit on the bench? I’m 100 per cent certain on Kepu. I certainly belong to the anyone but Alexander camp – but who is it?
4. Sam Carter – the incumbent.
5. Luke Jones – Two Test matches is not a lot. But if he keeps form for the Rebels he’ll have a good chance. Rob Simmons is injured and is going to come back into a losing team. I feel Cheika would rather Jones than Simmons.
6. Scott Fardy
7. David Pocock – I know he is injured too. But he’ll be back. World Cup experience counts, and Cheika will want him.
8. Wycliff Palu – Yes, he gets lots of criticism that he goes missing, but Cheika rates him and gets the best out of him. He’ll play in tight.
Bench: Michael Hooper and Scott Higginbotham. When Hooper and Higginbotham are on, Fardy will move to the second row, Pocock to 6/8, with Jones and Palu off. With this formation, they still have three line-out options, with increased pace in last 20 minutes.
You can have Pocock and Hooper on the park but it means the bench has to have a third jumper.
Again, I believe this is what will Cheika do – I can’t see him not having Hooper at least in the 23. And it means the other bench position has to be a line-out option.
9. Nick Phipps and Will Genia – I’m not sure who starts.
10/12. There are two options: Bernard Foley and Matt Toomua or Matt Toomua and Christian Lealiifano – It depends a little on Lealiifano’s goal kicking form. It’s one or the other.
13. Tevita Kuridrani – A lock.
11/14. Pick from Cummins, Speight, Horne and Tomane – It doesn’t make a huge difference. Maybe Cummins with a slight edge for his positive impact on team “culture”?
15. Israel Folau – A lock.
Bench: One of Beale/Cooper depending on form/fitness and Adam Ashley-Cooper for coverage of 13/14/15.
And that’s it. In my view the team is 95 per centcertain – with a few questions on a few slots only.
Others might argue it “should” be something else, but I’ll take bets that team is very close to what it will be subject to injury again.
It doesn’t really read like a World-Cup winning pack does it? But that’s the cattle there is – it’s not going to be improved by picking debutants or continuing with players like Horwill (a shadow of his pre-hamstring tear self) or Simmons or Ben Alexander.
dru
Roar Rookie
Works for me.
Hoges5
Roar Rookie
Congrats on the article Martin. Agree with much of this - a what he will do not should do. Locks and Backrowers are our biggest concern - you present a good case however, I am a Pocock OR Hooper proponent....and I pick Pocock, assuming he gets back to his powers. Wingers are debatable - as they don't do much since Digby left. Cummins and Speight are definite....would love to see English get a shot...and you omitted JOC who will be there somewhere
Mowk
Guest
Don't pick White he is a kicking liability
Markus
Guest
The love for Arnold is because in a 5 game professional career he has managed to show what Aus rugby fans have been holding out for for years - a complete lock performance. Strong scrummaging, strong in lineout, getting over the advantage line with ball in hand, hitting rucks, and can play 80 minutes. All the other locks in the mix so far either have not delivered consistently or are completely missing one or more of the previous criteria from their game. Sure calling him for the World Cup may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but none of the experienced locks have really provided an impact so it's not like there is that much to lose. The lack of talk on a 2nd THP is definitely a concern. I agree it looks like it should be Weeks or Holmes at this point, but either will only be a stop gap until a younger player comes along. I was hoping Alaalatoa would have had some bench time for the Brumbies but it seems Ruan Smith is being preferred for now.
Mowk
Guest
Don't pick White he is a kicking liability
Markus
Guest
Pilfers are only part of the equation, the much bigger gem is forced penalties. Four forced penalties in kickable positions is worth up to 12 points. And when you take into account that a forced penalty is against the run of play (the opposition are in possession at the time), its true value is even more than that.
Combesy
Roar Guru
All fair calls Jutsie, TBH I was struggling to name a 4. There has been no dominant and at least with big kev you know what you're going to get. Arnold could be the answer, as well as jones.
Luke Worthington
Roar Rookie
There is no way you can go past McCalman at number eight... come on...
Brian USA
Guest
Toomua is a 12 playing 10, with a 10 playing 12 outside him at Super level. While this works for the Brumbies, I feel as though the stronger combo would be to switch them (CLL 10, Toomua 12). For the Wallabies to really unlock the back line, it has to be either Quade or Foley at 10 with Toomua or CLL at 12. Both CLL and Toomua are solid in defense and have some playmaking ability to take pressure off their 10. From what I have seen, Foley is solid, but not much more. Cooper can be a little more erratic, but when he is on that back line ignites. I would prefer Cooper over Foley (pending his health, of course). I would love to see JOC at full back and Folau moved to 11 where he can take the inside lanes off Cooper's shoulder.
Martin
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the positive feedback. Heaps of comments - everyone loves to be a selector! Just a couple of notes: I don't get all the love for Arnold. A player in his first season of Super Rugby is just NOT going to be selected for the Wallabies and then make an impact at the World Cup in the same year. It's a romantic "caddy shack" dream, not how professional rugby works. Even the immortal John Eales, in a completely different era, made his provincial debut in 1990, the year before the 1991 world cup. Arnold is a potentially exciting prospect, he is not a 2015 Wallaby saviour. Same logic applies to L Timani as well - cracking start to the season but already sliding off the pace perhaps in last week or so? Cant really see any solutions offered to the reserve THP?! Alo Emile gets wraps but he cant crack a start at the Rebels? Maybe Weekes instead or Holmes? It's a problem. Kepu cant play 80. And yes I'll take the point re the Cooper-Toomua 10/12 combo. I think it was the best performed combo in the last few seasons. It might get the nod if Cooper comes back strong. Hard to see a spot for Beale in the 23 then I'd say (ie. I don't think you can have Cooper and Beale in the same 23 these days)
White
Roar Rookie
I know you are a Hooper fan. I have often read your comments defending Hooper against criticism. Hooper is an unbelievable player. One of our best. No doubt. But I completely disagree with your statement about defensive player not being able to win you a game by themselves, A player can, whether on defense or offence, win you games. Consider a goal keeper in Soccer facing a constant barrage of attack all game and saving every shot. I would say he wins you the match. In cricket either a batter or bowler can win you a match. In the NHL last year Lundqvist won a lot of games for the Rangers. Additionally when a player has an incredible game on defense and saves your team from certain points numerous times it lifts the whole team. An individual effort in any position CAN GET THE TEAM OVER THE LINE. I don't know how much rugby you have played but considering your knowledge of the game I am going to assume a reasonable amount. Haven't you ever played with someone who when performing, just creates and aurora of hope? I remember one player I played with who has gone on to play professionally, who was the reason we won a final. He pilfered that many balls on the line, made every tackle and left everything on the field. You could see his was fighting for his life. Everyone lifted for this guy alone. Consider the example PeterK provided, the 2011 World Cup match against the Boks. Pocock was out of this world. The balls he pilfered should not have been stolen. Yes some of it may have been illegal but honestly that is the role of the 7. Also it wasn't just the pilfers by themselves, its where they happened and when they happened. They happened when the Boks had all the momentum or when they were near certainties to score and as I said, he took balls that should have been taken, He also played a huge role in other turnovers and tackles. Something that everyone should know is that World Cups are all about defense. Defensive players are the stars. In that game Pocock reached a level that only the greatest to ever play the game could reach. I have seen Hooper do some great stuff. I just have not seen him do the job that Pocock has done in the past. What I am saying is that I would rather have Pocock at his best that Hooper at his best. If you could find a way to play them both successfully I would opt for that. But in my opinion Pocock has it over Hooper.
Dingo
Guest
Just watch the 2011 world cup quarter final.
Magic Sponge
Guest
Thatteam is soft and wont get us out of the pool
Adsa
Guest
Good team Martin, keep an eye on Laurie Weekes at no.3 for the Rebels, he would be a handy bench tight head.
Hoy
Roar Guru
You forget that is where he started playing as a 17 year old with the Force. He held his own then... but since then his development has been completely halted by being played in every spot except where I think he is best suited.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
Haven't read all previous comments. A fair go at picking a team except for the lack of tactical kicking ability in your back three. You won't get far in a RWC in England without solid tactical kicking. Australia's wingers and full-back currently aren't up to much at kicking. It is a weakness that needs fixing.
Rugby.ftw
Guest
I believe Quade will be a lock in at10 by the end of super rugby. You need an experienced fly half for a World Cup and Quade is the only one who fits the bill, just needs to find his form again and I think he has the hunger to do it. Also Simmons will be a lock in as well, despite being injured. He's our lineout specialist and I think Horwill will partner him in the second row because they are our best set piece second rowers, in scrims as well as in lineouts, and that's crucial in the UK.
Boomeranga
Guest
I thought Charles and Saia served us really well when called on last year. Would stick with Moore and TPN all the same.
Hoppers
Guest
You're actually wrong PJM. There's a simple rules of physics as to why tall locks are preferred. Think about why you use a long pole to support a retaining wall instead of a short one. It's part of the reason we now call them locks instead of 2nd rowers. Probably doesn't matter at grade level where brute power trumps, but at elite level it's vital. It's why so many scrum gurus complain about Wallaby locks having their bums sticking up at scrum time - it negates the advantage you get from your height. Any decent scrum coach would tell you that.
Hoppers
Guest
Not so far fetched. I'm sure if you scoured all of subbies rugby you'd find a Owen Franks and an Aaron Smith that qualify for the Wobblies . A Brodie Retalick might be a tough find though.