Want a tip? The host nations are set to clash in the 2015 Cricket World Cup final

By Dan Lonergan / Expert

After some outstanding cricket in the pool matches – especially from the associate nations over the past month – we have reached the pointy end of the world cup.

The quarter finals are with us and the pick of the matches should be the first one, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

Considering South Africa’s poor record in knockout stages at world cups and their patchy form in this tournament, it wouldn’t surprise me if Sri Lanka won.

As this column has outlined previously, if Sri Lanka bat first and their top order led by Kumar Sangakkara continue their rich vein of form, they can put immense pressure on the Proteas.

South Africa’s batting hasn’t shone against the established countries except for the West Indies and they need everyone to chip in, instead of relying on AB de Villiers.

We know Sri Lanka’s bowling is their weakness. In this tournament there have been many scores over 300 by teams having a hit first, but not many opponents have overhauled those totals chasing. This is except ironically for Sri Lanka, who easily passed England, but South Africa has a much more potent bowling attack than the English – and the English are already back home.

Zimbabwe also can’t be forgotten in big run chases. They almost overhauled Ireland’s formidable 331 in Hobart and fell five runs short in one of the best and most entertaining clashes so far.

This should be tight, but maybe South Africa will end the international career of the great Mahela Jayawardene and the one day career of the outstanding Sangakkara.

The second quarter is in Calcutta, sorry Melbourne at the MCG, but it may as well be in Calcutta, with the huge Indian crowd expected to attend.

There will be Bangladeshi supporters in the crowd, but they will be drowned out by the Indians, who managed to incredibly do that when India played Australia in a Tri Nations match before the World Cup back in January.

Bangladesh has improved with every outing, but India has had their collective eyes on the main prize after struggling in that Tri Nations series.

They are undefeated with all their batsmen like Sri Lanka making contributions and they just seem to have too much firepower for Bangladesh, who have been one of the feel good stories of this world cup along with Afghanistan and Ireland’s John Mooney.

The third quarter final sees Australia play at the Adelaide Oval for the first time in this tournament against Pakistan, who once again have been unpredictable.

The win over South Africa defending a moderate total was a good effort, but to be honest, South Africa played like they were in a rush and batted in a slap dash fashion. Rain was also on the horizon that day in New Zealand, so that might have also played a part in South Africa’s approach to their batting, but whatever it was, it showed up a soft and fragile underbelly again.

Australia has been average throughout the pool matches. They still have some issues with the makeup of their eleven. Aaron Finch – after a century early on – has struggled and Mitch Johnson also has been below his best.

However, Glenn Maxwell and Mitch Starc have been stars and the decision to give Shane Watson yet another chance and bat him in the middle order is working.

It would be a major surprise if Pakistan defeated the Australians and I am predicting an easy win for the home team.

I will say likewise for the last of the quarters between New Zealand, who like India are yet to taste defeat and the West Indies.

Take out the win over Pakistan and the power hitting by Chris Gayle and Marlon Samuels against Zimbabwe, there has been little to write home about the Windies.

New Zealand has regularly bowled sides out with their swing and pace and they should be too strong again. However, there’s an if, but it’s a big one, if Chris Gayle can get going, we will get a contest.

If those results work out, we end up with the four teams most likely before the world cup in the semis, with Australia taking on India and New Zealand hosting South Africa.

Just thinking about them makes me excited. However, I feel New Zealand might be too steady for the inconsistent South Africa and Australia always finds a way especially on home decks to account for India.

We would then get the host nations playing off and what a spectacle that would be. Who can forget that marvelous low scoring battle at Auckland last month when the Kiwis destroyed Australia’s batting only for Mitch Starc to clean up New Zealand’s tail? In the end, Australia did well but fell one wicket short.

It will be New Zealand’s first and only match away from home and their first world cup, which might be telling against the most successful country in the history of this competition.

If Australia were to get there on March 29th at the MCG, it will be their seventh final.

There’s still plenty of cricket to be played, but Australia seem to be peaking at the right time. Also, this is an excellent and cohesive New Zealand team, who have learnt how to win.

A word of warning though – I struggle generally to tip my hat! There could be more surprises in store at the 2015 Cricket World Cup.

The Crowd Says:

2015-03-24T22:37:39+00:00

Renegade

Guest


Haha ;)

2015-03-24T22:32:12+00:00

Tristan Rayner

Editor


Noted.

2015-03-19T13:16:37+00:00

bilal

Guest


Dont worry too much I see India edging out Australia.

2015-03-19T13:15:46+00:00

bilal

Guest


India will beat Australia the t20 sloggers david finch and co will not be able to handle Indian bowlers....Johnson will leak massive runs.

2015-03-19T10:12:12+00:00

Targa

Guest


We beat (upset) South Africa in the WCs in 2003, 07 and 2011 so perhaps they're due. Ironically this South Africa team is weaker on paper than those ones and this NZ team is stronger. Anyway if we get past the Windies it should be a great game.

2015-03-19T04:10:27+00:00

sd

Guest


lol ! tell us some more "If india makes past the semi against australia"love your work hahhahahahah

2015-03-18T16:32:26+00:00

raz

Guest


If india makes past the semi against australia,they will win.

2015-03-18T14:27:43+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Probably go with SA v OZ final, although these semis are going to be GREAT.

2015-03-18T13:51:51+00:00

dan ced

Guest


I tipped a South Africa New Zealand final at the start of the Tournament...should've looked at the two groups before I said that! I think AUS are average, the selectors picked a so-so squad and ignored domestic form. Whoever wins the probable semi between SA and NZ will beat whoever plays the other semi. That is my tip now. Given my previous statement about AUS being average, I think India will beat them and make the final but lose.

2015-03-18T10:58:59+00:00

Geoff Sergeant

Guest


Well you got that one wrong Roar. Wipe your mouth the South Africans will beat New Zealand to go into the finals.

2015-03-18T08:37:16+00:00

Charging Rhino

Roar Guru


Nah.... Australia vs South Africa final. And South Africa to win it as their record in ODI's at the MCG against Australia is impeccable!

2015-03-18T08:28:10+00:00

Vic

Guest


:) :) :)

2015-03-18T08:15:25+00:00

spruce moose

Guest


Lol, yeah. Looks like I'll have to! Though considering who Sri Lanka chose as their opening batsman to partner dilshan today, the integrity unit should be called in. So bizarre.

2015-03-18T07:18:10+00:00

MACDUB

Guest


As a NZ fan, Im a bit.concerned and dont think we will make the final. If we lose the semi (providing we beat WI first), people will kick up a fuss but at the end of the day; SA is one of the favourites for the tournament and a top 4 finish at the WC would be above our ODI ranking anyway. Its disappointing to think that for all our skill and talent, a semi final exit would be no better than our 2011 result. Thats an injustice to this team but hey thats cricket and its about who plays well on the day.

2015-03-18T07:14:34+00:00

MACDUB

Guest


Ouch. Might want to take that back spruce. SA making SL look like an under 12 team ATM

2015-03-18T03:46:54+00:00

BBA

Guest


Sorry Brian, just being a bit picky. While I could support an argument that SA is the stronger team ion paper and would be favoured to win I honestly consider it hard to argue, based of anything that if SA played SL 10 times they would win win 9 times as being anything other than an emotional argument.

2015-03-18T03:28:37+00:00

AlanKC

Guest


I hope you're right Dan, it will be a promoters dream.

2015-03-18T02:46:42+00:00

spruce moose

Guest


History would indicate otherwise. They couldn't chase 230 at Eden Park.

2015-03-18T01:35:33+00:00

Brian

Guest


To be more specific the 9 out of 10 was De Villiers chasing against this SL attack. If SL win the toss and make 350 I still think the Saffers can chase it because this SL attack is weak. Malinga & Kulasakera are past their best, Herath is injured. It's very different to the last few World Cups where Malinga & Murali would combine for 20 of the most unplayable overs in ODI. Regarding history I can't imagine there is a rich record of SA playing SL in Australia but on bouncy southern hemisphere wickets I would think the Saffers have won more often then not.

2015-03-18T01:10:09+00:00

BBA

Guest


Its hard to understand from your logic that you have presented above why SA should beat SL 9 times out of 10 in this next match. Does SA ever beat SL 9 times out of 10? If Sl wins the toss and bat first your own post suggests that for whatever reason (and Im not going to use the chopke word) SA does not have a history of success.

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