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After some outstanding cricket in the pool matches – especially from the associate nations over the past month – we have reached the pointy end of the world cup.
The quarter finals are with us and the pick of the matches should be the first one, South Africa and Sri Lanka.
Considering South Africa’s poor record in knockout stages at world cups and their patchy form in this tournament, it wouldn’t surprise me if Sri Lanka won.
As this column has outlined previously, if Sri Lanka bat first and their top order led by Kumar Sangakkara continue their rich vein of form, they can put immense pressure on the Proteas.
South Africa’s batting hasn’t shone against the established countries except for the West Indies and they need everyone to chip in, instead of relying on AB de Villiers.
We know Sri Lanka’s bowling is their weakness. In this tournament there have been many scores over 300 by teams having a hit first, but not many opponents have overhauled those totals chasing. This is except ironically for Sri Lanka, who easily passed England, but South Africa has a much more potent bowling attack than the English – and the English are already back home.
Zimbabwe also can’t be forgotten in big run chases. They almost overhauled Ireland’s formidable 331 in Hobart and fell five runs short in one of the best and most entertaining clashes so far.
This should be tight, but maybe South Africa will end the international career of the great Mahela Jayawardene and the one day career of the outstanding Sangakkara.
The second quarter is in Calcutta, sorry Melbourne at the MCG, but it may as well be in Calcutta, with the huge Indian crowd expected to attend.
There will be Bangladeshi supporters in the crowd, but they will be drowned out by the Indians, who managed to incredibly do that when India played Australia in a Tri Nations match before the World Cup back in January.
Bangladesh has improved with every outing, but India has had their collective eyes on the main prize after struggling in that Tri Nations series.
They are undefeated with all their batsmen like Sri Lanka making contributions and they just seem to have too much firepower for Bangladesh, who have been one of the feel good stories of this world cup along with Afghanistan and Ireland’s John Mooney.
The third quarter final sees Australia play at the Adelaide Oval for the first time in this tournament against Pakistan, who once again have been unpredictable.
The win over South Africa defending a moderate total was a good effort, but to be honest, South Africa played like they were in a rush and batted in a slap dash fashion. Rain was also on the horizon that day in New Zealand, so that might have also played a part in South Africa’s approach to their batting, but whatever it was, it showed up a soft and fragile underbelly again.
Australia has been average throughout the pool matches. They still have some issues with the makeup of their eleven. Aaron Finch – after a century early on – has struggled and Mitch Johnson also has been below his best.
However, Glenn Maxwell and Mitch Starc have been stars and the decision to give Shane Watson yet another chance and bat him in the middle order is working.
It would be a major surprise if Pakistan defeated the Australians and I am predicting an easy win for the home team.
I will say likewise for the last of the quarters between New Zealand, who like India are yet to taste defeat and the West Indies.
Take out the win over Pakistan and the power hitting by Chris Gayle and Marlon Samuels against Zimbabwe, there has been little to write home about the Windies.
New Zealand has regularly bowled sides out with their swing and pace and they should be too strong again. However, there’s an if, but it’s a big one, if Chris Gayle can get going, we will get a contest.
If those results work out, we end up with the four teams most likely before the world cup in the semis, with Australia taking on India and New Zealand hosting South Africa.
Just thinking about them makes me excited. However, I feel New Zealand might be too steady for the inconsistent South Africa and Australia always finds a way especially on home decks to account for India.
We would then get the host nations playing off and what a spectacle that would be. Who can forget that marvelous low scoring battle at Auckland last month when the Kiwis destroyed Australia’s batting only for Mitch Starc to clean up New Zealand’s tail? In the end, Australia did well but fell one wicket short.
It will be New Zealand’s first and only match away from home and their first world cup, which might be telling against the most successful country in the history of this competition.
If Australia were to get there on March 29th at the MCG, it will be their seventh final.
There’s still plenty of cricket to be played, but Australia seem to be peaking at the right time. Also, this is an excellent and cohesive New Zealand team, who have learnt how to win.
A word of warning though – I struggle generally to tip my hat! There could be more surprises in store at the 2015 Cricket World Cup.
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