I always enjoy the hype around AFL season, especially when I’m a St Kilda supporter and I read about how my team is going to win another wooden spoon (at least we get the number one draft pick).
But it got me thinking, I am probably not going to trawl through all the experts’ opinions come end of season and see how close they were to predicting the entire ladder at the end of 22 rounds.
But what about at the end of five rounds, which is only start of May? So, here’s my best attempt at predicating the AFL ladder to the end of Round 5.
At the time of writing, I don’t know if Essendon will be allowed to use the 2012 players.
1. Sydney 20
2. Hawthorn 16
3. Gold Coast 16
4. Fremantle 16
5. Port Adelaide 12
6. Collingwood 12
7. Richmond 12
8. Geelong 129. Carlton 8
10. North Melbourne 8
11. Adelaide 8
12. West Coast 8
13. Brisbane 8
14. Essendon 8
15. Greater Western Sydney 4
16. Melbourne 4
17. Western Bulldogs 4
18. St Kilda 4
Rather predictably, I have most of the bookies’ favourites for the premiership up the pointy end with Sydney going 5-0 and Hawthorn going 4-1. Fremantle and Port Adelaide are also up there, with Port having a tough early draw the only reason I don’t have them higher.
Geelong and Richmond also squeeze into my eight, with Gold Coast taking full advantage of their softer start to season – playing Melbourne (A), St Kilda (H), GWS (A).
North Melbourne are probably the unlucky ones to miss out on the eight at this stage. They have some tough assignments with Geelong in Geelong, Port Adelaide at Etihad, Adelaide Crows in Adelaide and Hawthorn at Etihad.
And with Essendon, without knowing how which players can be available to play, it’s hard to make a judgement call on how competitive they will be. If they can only use VFL-AFL delisted players it’s hard to see them beating sides that have trained together all pre-season.
At the other end of the ladder, it’s a little more predictable. The Giants have some tough assignments with Sydney at the SCG, Gold Coast at home and West Coast in Perth. Melbourne playing Adelaide in Adelaide and Richmond and Fremantle at the MCG won’t be expecting the four points.
And St Kilda, I am hopeful that they will be competitive and maybe snag an upset early (either GWS at Etihad or Essendon if players are not available), but it’s hard to see many premiership points coming to the Saints this season.
So what do you think, Roarers, have I found a new career in crystal ball viewing? Or have I relegated your team to bottom of the heap, showing that I am completely out of touch with reality?
Wayne
Roar Guru
Looking like I might have got my wires crossed with Gold Coast and GWS... Especially now that Ablett is out. 3 more weeks to go, but I think I might be in trouble on a few.
Don Freo
Guest
But Freo always try to lose pre-season against WC. We beat you accidentally the other day. We can't lose, even if we try.
Don Freo
Guest
3 sides ahead of them. Freo, Gold Coast, West Coast. Wouldn't you all love my TAB tickets...if I actually did bet.
Don Freo
Guest
I'm sure Walsh will be less effective than Sanderson. The problem is the players, not the coach. 17th or 16th. No one can beat Carlton for 18th.
Dylan
Guest
I don't know there don, WC weren't great against you guys last weekend but only lost by 19 points. Last years derbies the Eagles were stiff not to win at least one of them. Both this year will be great contests and can see the Eagles pinching one this year. But certainly the Eagles will be in for a better start then this article suggests (no attack on the writer here)
Don Freo
Guest
So Rob, you don't read...or you can't read. That's not what the article is doing.
Rob
Guest
Taking the time to not only predict the ladder after round 5 but actually articulate you reasonings for it and post it show your out of touch with reality.
Don Freo
Guest
I'm with you there Dylan...but I wouldn't be hoping for much against Freo. We've still got you under control. Could be the year of the derby GF! Sorry folk...I'm getting a bit toey. Bring on the season.
Don Freo
Guest
What a good idea for an article. But...who could possibly beat Freo? Sydney? C'mon Wayne, you must barrack for them (no? The Saints?). Silvagni has the wood on Buddy...and Buddy is all Sydney have. Nah...really, I'm impressed. I think Freo will beat Sydney but if Freo is 4-1 after their first five rounds, they will become flag faves.
Harbinger
Guest
Collingwood will more than likely be 2 and 3 after 5 rounds, notwithstanding Gary Pert’s attempt to talk up their chances yesterday, when the perpetually expanding Collingwood Media Department released a ‘slick’ pre-season video. The Pies preoccupation with the glamour of the media should be a serious cause for concern amongst supporters, with the team’s on-field performances having declined steadily over the past three seasons, and more particularly if Gerard Healy’s foreshadowing of a potential bottom four finish during season 2015 was to become a reality.
Dylan
Guest
I can see the Eagles winning 3-4 of their first 5 games this year. Brisbane, Fremantle are the toughest games there, but not impossible. The Eagles have a relatively good record against the Lions especially down at the Gabba. They've got a really good record against the Western Bulldogs as well. They'll put a few people to shame early one.
Big Dallo
Guest
Swans 5 zip is a sure bet my friends. This year they will hammer many good teams on their way to another flag
langou
Roar Guru
You would imagine that Port or Freo would knock of the Swans
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
I'll eat my hat if the Swans a 5-0. They would need to beat both the power and dockers interstate. Considering how poorly they started the season last year, I would say this is extremely unlikely. 4-1 is more likely but no gimme. I am a Swans fan by the way.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
North will be near to top
Wayne
Roar Guru
Oops. In which case, my argument swings to "Sydney seemed more comfortable on Adelaide oval in their return clash last season'"
Avatar
Roar Guru
Just to correct you: the Round 2 match against Port you're talking about is in Adelaide. The return game in Sydney is in Round 14. North Melbourne were able to win in Perth twice last year within the space of just over a month (they beat Freo on ANZAC Night then smashed West Coast in Round 11).
Gavin
Guest
Melbourne won't upset the Crows again. We no longer have a douche as a coach. We'll pummel them.
Macca
Guest
If you have Melbourne beating the Tigers they definitely won't get 3 wins by round 5, more like 1-4 or 0-5. On a side note did you see David Astbury will miss round 1 after being stung by a stingray at recovery?
Wayne
Roar Guru
Upset GWS Round 2, Crows Round 3, or Richmond on Friday Night Round 4. One of those results may happen (can't say which one [but modelling, Beat Richmond by 1 point])