After the completion of Round 7, the Super Rugby table’s a weird-looking beast.
Courtesy of the conference system, we again have this situation where the teams listed in fourth and fifth have better records than two of the top-three teams, who of course occupy the spots they do by virtue of leading their national conferences.
The table after Round 7 has the undefeated Hurricanes in the overall lead, on 27 points. The Brumbies on 20, and the Sharks on 19, round out the three conference leaders in the top spots.
Behind them in the three wildcard spots are the Chiefs on 24 points, but with one more win than the Brumbies and a superior record to the Sharks in every facet.
The Highlanders follow on 20 points, also with a better points differential and more bonus points than the Sharks.
The Waratahs’ 23-11 win over the Blues on Saturday night in Sydney lifted them into the top six for the first time this season. They have 18 points, from four wins and two bonus points, and sit ahead of the Bulls in terms of both points differential and the number of tries scored.
(For reference, Super Rugby uses the following tie-breaking sequence for teams on equal competition points: number of wins, then points differential, then the number of tries scored, and then the differential of tries scored and tries conceded. And should two teams at the end of the season remain deadlocked after all this convolution, a coin will be tossed.)
The Stormers were the big movers this weekend. Sitting atop the South African conference going into Round 7, their 39-21 thumping at the hands of the Highlanders under the roof in Dunedin saw them plummet from third in the standings down to eighth overall.
Similarly, the Sharks’ win over the Force saw them jump into the top three, after they were only above the Highlanders by a single differential point.
When you look further into the conferences, this is where the strongest and weakest conference debate quickly emerges.
New Zealand
Hurricanes 27 points – six wins
Chiefs 24 – five
Highlanders 20 – four
Crusaders 14 – three
Blues 4 – zero
Australia
Brumbies 20 – four
Waratahs 18 – four
Rebels 11 – two
Force 8 – one
Reds 6 – one
South Africa
Sharks 19 – four
Bulls 18 – four
Stormers 16 – four
Lions 13 – three
Cheetahs 9 – two
One thing is certain: Australia is not the strongest conference currently!
The Brumbies and Waratahs are obviously travelling well, but all of the Brumbies’ wins, and three of the Waratahs’ four wins have come from within the Australian conference.
The Waratahs bounced back in recent weeks, with solid wins over the Brumbies (coincidentally) and the Blues. The Brumbies’ wins have been against the Reds, Rebels, and Force.
And as has been pointed out, the Australian teams performances against the other conferences has been far from convincing thus far.
The Rebels’ surprise win – and on current form, we have to now call it a surprise win – over the Crusaders in Round 1, and the Tahs’ win over the Blues on Saturday night are the only inter-conference successes. From 10 games.
The New Zealand teams, apart from the Blues, and even with the Crusaders going down to the Bulls on Sunday morning, look ominously strong, and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see three of them finish in the playoffs. However, they haven’t really had much chance to take points off each other to date, with only six derbies played in the first seven rounds.
In those games, the Hurricanes are two from two, the Chiefs and the Highlanders are both one from three, the Crusaders have won one and lost one, and the Blues are obviously winless.
Against Australian and South African sides, the Kiwis have enjoyed twelve wins from nineteen games, with the Hurricanes and Highlanders unbeaten in four and three games, respectively. The Chiefs have won three of four, the Crusaders two from four, and the Blues have lost all four.
The South African conference is already proving competitive, with three teams in the top eight overall, and only 10 points separating the five teams. The Sharks, Bulls, and Stormers have all won four games, while the Lions now return to the Republic with an unprecedented three wins from four games on tour.
Within the conference, it’s becoming bloody hard to follow. The Cheetahs beat the Sharks and the Stormers beat the Bulls in the first round. Then the Sharks beat the Lions. Then the Stormers beat the Lions and the Bulls beat the Sharks in Round 3. Then, in Rounds 4 and 5, the Bulls beat the Cheetahs, the Stormers beat the Sharks, and the Sharks beat the Cheetahs.
Still following? No, neither am I (as proven by my tipping).
Outside the conference, the South African sides have won 9 from 16 games, though only the Lions have recorded wins on tour. They’re also enjoying success against the lowly Australian sides, with the Force losing both games of the African tour, and the Reds and Rebels both losing to the touring Lions.
Even though the Stormers have only just started their tour, and the Sharks and Bulls don’t head east until May, the argument for the South African conference being the hardest this year – or at least so far this year – is solid. It’s certainly unpredictable.
They can, on their day, all beat each other, and they’re certainly no easybeats on tour anymore. I had the Bulls and Sharks as the top South African teams, but the mixed form of both those teams and the unexpected rise of the Stormers and Lions this season has me re-evaluating these predictions already.
wardad
Guest
Only porting over to the mighty Chiefs will make ya feel better ! Guaranteed !
Jerry
Guest
Dunno about the Tahs, but last year the Force finished 8th despite having 1 more win than the 3 teams directly ahead of them. On wins alone they'd have finished 5th and been in the playoffs. I agree with Birdy, bonus points should only ever be a tie breaker for teams with equal wins.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Birdy, by default it is as a breaker for entry into finals. Perform and the team with more bonus points will advance ahead of a team who had the same number of wins. A win is worth 4 points, it takes 4 bonus points to match the point of a single win. 'The Tahs missed out a few times .... " interesting .... haven't checked but would wonder when (as in which year) and who did they missed out too who took their place in the finals (as a result purely on bonus points and having less wins?) ... in particular a "few times"
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Pollard was selected in the Western Province squad for the Under-13 Craven Week competition in 2007. He also represented them at the Under-16 Grant Khomo Week in 2010, before playing at the Under-18 Craven Week competitions in 2011 and 2012 before joining the Bulls in 2012 (courtesy Wikepedia). I looked up up his credentials last year when he played for the U20's after he played in the tournament in NZ (June 2014). He was outstanding in that tournament and while he stuttered a little when moving to senior ranks, he was a talent that just stood out. I have followed his career rather closer than I really wanted to as singularly, I saw him as a very real threat to the AB's on how he controlled the game.. I saw him as the SA equivalent of Dan Carter (ok a long way to go but!! .......). And who can forget his contribution at Ellis Park against the men in black last year. The frightening thing is that 'I fear' he is going to get better!
jeznez
Roar Guru
Could have done a tie in to the homophobia debate given The Village People were the big guest act this year. The click bait potential was huge! They opened with Macho Man and brought the house down.
Jerry
Guest
Ellis would only have been on that tour cause TKB blew his knee out, though.
Brett McKay
Expert
I did not know Pollard was from WP, no! The one that got away?
pjm
Roar Rookie
Reds are replete with has been or bit part Wallabies for the most part with a couple of exceptions. the result of multiple coaches in a short time and experimentation due to poor results. Now the Wallabies squad is pretty much set and very few Reds will find themselves in it and even less getting game time.
PeterK
Roar Guru
pjm - don't agree. There are 3 teams replete with wallabies , as has been the case for a while. Brumbies, Tahs and Reds. The issue is the reds have vastly underperformed. If they had a better coach for the last 2 years it was possible to have 3 teams make it. No doubt the nz conference is the strongest. It is close between SA and Aust over the whole super rugby who has been stronger / weaker. With the new system SA have a massively distorted conference system almost guaranteeing them the top 2 final spots. Aust will really struggle playing NZ more, less home derbies and less games against SA. I could easily see Aust only getting 1 team into the finals in the future.
pjm
Roar Rookie
It's not about the individual sides and their fortunes though. Chiefs are going well now but at the expense of the Blues who dominated at the start and NZ Rugby is in a much better position than Aus. If Australia ever wants 3 teams in the finals then they would need to move down to 4 teams total.
Shaggy
Guest
It's a supply and demand market, and as such, there is only so many positions available at overseas clubs, and only so much money to spend. Every time a player chooses to leave NZ shores, it opens the door for another player to fill the void, and it's not like the Blues are lacking with good quality outside backs. They need international quality 9 and 10's, playing for a few seasons together IMO ... maybe some continuity in the locking department wouldn't hurt either
Shaggy
Guest
I think the standard of quality Fly Halves is a real issue this year, the sides that don't have a regular consistent 10 such as the Blues, Force, and Reds, not surprisingly, aren't doing so well. :)
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
SA.. who cares? Only the biggest portion of the TV audience. The biggest contributors financially and the highest numbers of fans who attend the games..... Super Rugby is non existent without SA. Chop
Shaggy
Guest
It's certainly nice and even this year, which is nice to see, but I haven't had much trouble picking the top three (before the season starts), in previous years. ... and yes, I totally agree, the most even conferences are often the ones that are penalised under the conference system, which makes winning your home games a necessity, and those cross conference games so important
Shaggy
Guest
I doubt it ... A.Smith, Ellis, and Perenara will probably be the three half backs for the RWC, with Webber then Pulu as outside chances. No one has stepped up to rival A.Smith at international level, Perenara has improved this year, and Ellis is proven at test level. Ellis would have been on the end of year tour last year, but they couldn't get the release from his Japanese club. Pulu went, but he tends to run himself/not pass as much as he should IMO, he's number five in the pecking order (my rankings)
Chivas
Guest
You and I know that will ever happen. Too left field like playing a more balanced and expansive game :-). Some of the most talented rugby players not just on the planet but of a generation, but without direction.. just a bunch of good players.
Birdy
Guest
Hi Rob , if you do the maths on the bonus points you will find that a team can wind most of its games and be placed lower than a team with less wins and more bonus points. The tahs missed out a few times on the 4 te finals structure . In the NYC with less points for a goal Andrew Slack did an article in last years courier mail that each game had more minutes of play And more ball carry meters . The bonus point system is well meaning and an excellent idea but it should be used as a tie break for entry into the finals .
Akari
Roar Rookie
I used to criticise the Chiefs and Highlanders involvement in super rugby from about the late 90s to early 2000 as they appeared to have Buckley's chance of ever making it to and winning in the finals. The Chiefs have won 2 super championships and may be on the way to a 3rd this year. The Highlanders have been competitive over the past 2 years despite having a team of unknowns apart from Smith x2 and Fekitoa and I enjoy watching their games now. Persistence and wise investments in players and coaching staff have allowed these teams to survive, prosper and be successful. Like the Chiefs and Highlanders, Australia can only be competitive by growing the game and retaining the 5 teams. In time and. as the population grows, it might have to expand by another team in Adelaide for example. All that is required is patience for the Reds, Rebels and Force to develop further and be more than competitive in the next year or so. If the Chiefs and Highlanders can do it, these teams can do it too.
pjm
Roar Rookie
I say it dilutes talent to a point where player development is put at stake. Players play and get better when playing with other high quality players, if they're in a languishing team then they won't. Despite their history and success I'd have to say the Brumbies would have to go, the population is too small, too transient, and not enough juniors. The areas of NSW they've claimed would be taken back in by the Waratahs.
Harry Jones
Expert
Etzebeth & Thør back for Wellington