Who can we trust in the Australian conference?

Can we get rid of injuries? Will we finally see a finals series without ‘that’ team featuring? Which Australian side can we trust? Some quick questions after Round 10 of Super Rugby.

Can we get rid of injuries?
Injuries are the worst. Sometimes they ruin a good game, other times they trip a team up, hobbling their chances to show us how good they are.

Then there are injuries that blow up a season. Aaron Cruden’s ACL tear on Saturday night is in the third category.

Most coverage has pointed out he is likely to miss the World Cup given his scheduled full reconstruction means he will be out for six months. That is obviously a crying shame for the All Blacks and people who want to see the best possible World Cup. Dan Carter is still a class act but is more of an on-off proposition these days given his age and injury history.

But what I don’t want to skip over is the way this injury alters the Chiefs’ season. Without him they are a perfectly reasonable team, but they don’t have the ceiling they would if he was available.

Their solid win over the Crusaders on the weekend is case in point for me.

If Cruden was able to play out that game at full speed the Chiefs would have hammered the Crusaders by an historic margin. After a solid half that left the Chiefs with an 18-6 lead they restricted the Saders to just three points in the second half, but only added eight of their own.

With Cruden’s ability to take the ball to the line, relentlessly pin the opposition back and wreak havoc down the blindside with his outside backs, the Chiefs could have expected to run the score closer to half a century than a solid effort seeing off the new ball.

Beyond this week, the Chiefs’ first-phase attack is the best in world rugby – better than any Test team when it’s on song. The way they attack from scrums and lineouts is magical. Cruden is a huge part of that, with his ability to go quickly to the line, pass on time and at length, as well as accurately kick for wide runners.

Anyway, yes the World Cup will miss Cruden. But so will the Chiefs and Super Rugby as a whole. And I haven’t even talked about Heinrich Brussow’s broken arm.

Man, injuries are the worst.

Will we finally be without ‘them’ in the finals?
I’m not sure if anyone has dared write it yet, for fear of jinxing a near-perfect situation. But I’m ready to speak my mind on this.

The Crusaders won’t be in the finals this year.

*Ducks flying objects from the bleachers*

I know, just typing that probably ensured I would eat my words, they’ll come roaring back to life, devour everything in their path, bash the door to the top six down, and pillage the place.

Look, they’re not without a chance of making it, but they’re trending down and too many teams are either trending up or too far ahead.

Australia and South Africa are guaranteed a team each and New Zealand would have to have at least three teams in the finals for the Crusaders to have a shot.

The Hurricanes and Chiefs are 13 points and 12 points ahead respectively right now, and the Highlanders are eight up. The Canes and the Highlanders are trending up this year, not faltering so far, and the Chiefs will soldier on being Cruden-less at a decent if not unstoppable level.

Can you see the Crusaders mowing down more than one of those teams?

On Friday night they didn’t look like scoring a try besides the first breakout inside the first six minutes that ended in the Sam Cane yellow card. They had Colin Slade available, Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Keiran Read – everyone except Israel Dagg.

Another interesting anomaly was their inability to bring Nemani Nadolo into the game at all. That suggests to me game planning issues that reach into the coaching box as well as lacklustre on-field play.

Many of the Crusaders’ best are older heads now, so they’ll probably improve into the season rather than sustain great form beginning to end, but they’ve given themselves a huge gap to cross and a World Cup to peak for as well.

Blame it on me when they make the top six. Richie McCaw is probably printing this out and pinning it to the dressing room wall right now.

Which Australian side can we trust?
Ugh. Three teams with a minus for and against, the best of which has the smallest number of points for in the competition. The best placed team is tied for sixth on points. The second best is outside the top six. The bottom three are all in the bottom five.

Welcome to the Australian conference, where we are all looking for hope and it’s not in good supply.

The Australian conference is like a drunk guy trying to take the short walk home from his local after a long night out – everything is tougher than he remembered it. The hill is steeper, the cracks in the pavement are wider and his legs aren’t as strong as he thought.

The Rebels can’t score enough points to win games. The Force are strong and hardworking, but can’t control field position and can’t score points. The Reds can’t get much right at all.

The performances up the (relative) top of the conference haven’t given me any reason to trust anyone either.

Look at the Brumbies: beaten by the previously winless Blues, then lost to the Rebels at home. The Waratahs just got owned by the Stormers at home, but flogged the previously undefeated Hurricanes away. Both are prone to boom and bust cycles. The Brumbies have a flatter peak and trough, but the inconsistency brings the same results.

The Waratahs, by virtue of bringing back the same players that won the championship last year, are attacking the risk of complacency head on this year, but also have a higher ceiling.

A tighter game plan and three straight years of executing a successful version of it provides the Brumbies with a more steady foundation to build from here.

The Waratahs have the Rebels at home, Brumbies away and Force away in the next three games. I’d like to say that’s an important stretch for them, but playing three games in a row in Australia probably won’t define their season. Hints only. Unfortunately we’ll have to wait until the final three rounds, when the Tahs fly to South Africa and then host the Reds, to see if they’re really trustworthy.

The Brumbies have a more difficult immediate three-match stretch than the Waratahs that might tell us something about their ability under fire. They’ll take on the rising Highlanders, then have a chance to square their Waratahs series and fly to take on the Stormers who are probably secretly the best South African side.

We’ll have more evidence to see whether they’re trustworthy by the time they arrive in Johannesburg to play the Lions.