While fellow AFL expansion team Gold Coast have slid into the abyss, Greater Western Sydney have got themselves into very good shape.
Their dismissive dismantling of the Suns on the weekend has placed them second on the ladder with a 3-1 record and a very favourable draw over the coming six rounds.
Should they maintain their current form they easily could own a 7-3 record after 10 rounds, putting them in prime position to make their first appearance in September.
This weekend they play the injury-ravaged West Coast in Perth, followed by Hawthorn (at home), Carlton (away), Adelaide (home), Western Bulldogs (away) and Brisbane (home). While they do not yet look ready to take down the mighty Hawks, even in Sydney, their other five games are very winnable.
Shortening the focus back to this coming round, the Giants are well placed to beat the Eagles on their home turf. West Coast’s once gigantic advantage playing in Perth has dissolved in recent seasons. In fact, last year Subiaco Oval haunted them due to its length. Where once they exploited the unusually long oval with their run and carry, now they suffer from a stark lack of pace. Visiting teams boasting players who motor across the turf have scythed through the Eagles time and again.
The Giants are one of the elite running teams in the competition, as we saw last week when they routinely slashed through the Gold Coast’s defences by allying their foot speed with swift, assured ball movement.
So clinical were some of their attacking forays that they appeared to be doing the old ‘three-man weave’ many Roarers will themselves have practiced on the training track. The Giants bolted in waves, swamping the Suns and all but extinguishing their hopes of having a successful 2015 season.
GWS players are encouraged to take on the game. They manifestly enjoy this assertive, flair-laden brand of football. The reason it is now reaping dividends is that they have coupled it with a better-honed and more thoroughly applied defensive approach.
The Giants are now a two-way running team. Many of them storm into their back half with the same intensity seen when sprinting into attack.
Although West Coast destroyed GWS in Perth last season, their development has been noted by Eagles coach Adam Simpson.
“I think we are just starting to see the signs of what’s coming this year with GWS,” he told Perth radio station 6PR this week.
“They’re a different team than we faced last year. They’re a dangerous side to play. They’re hard running, they’re young and enthusiastic, and they don’t really rely on one player. They’re pretty balanced with everything they do.”
It is this even spread which is missing at Gold Coast, which leans heavily on superstar captain Gary Ablett. Although it could be argued that GWS co-captain Callan Ward has been almost as influential at the Giants, they do not rely on him in the same manner.
Their most important player is behemoth ruckman Shane Mumford. The most physical and intimidating footballer in the competition, Mumford is arguably as good as any big man in the land. He is averaging 13 touches, 35 hit outs, five tackles and four clearances per game.
What doesn’t show up on the stats databases is the space he clears for teammates with his massive frame, or the manner in which many opponents appear less certain in their ball handling when he is nearby.
At his feet are a clutch of blossoming on-ballers with a blend of pace, poise, attacking instincts and impressive foot skills. Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar and Lachie Whitfield each represent the kind of young, classy, fleet-footed midfielder for which many teams would sell the farm.
The brawn, tenacity and experience of Ward and former Western Bulldogs skipper Ryan Griffen complement that trio perfectly. When their midfield wins the ball they now look up to see two in-form tall options in Jeremy Cameron and Cam McCarthy.
Combined, that pair of key forwards are offering the Giants 25 touches, 11 marks and six goals a game this year. Cameron is a proven commodity, having earned All Australian selection in 2013. For his offsider McCarthy, this is shaping as his breakthrough season.
Down back, injury-plagued key defender Phil Davis has finally got a decent run at it and has been in wonderful touch. Meanwhile, veteran Joel Patfull is doing a solid job of holding down the second main defensive post. Around them, the Giants are gaining drive out of the likes of Heath Shaw and Tomas Bugg.
As Simpson stated, they have become a balanced line-up. GWS have taken a giant stride past Gold Coast this season and look far closer to playing finals, and having an impact in September, than their fellow expansion team.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Mumford is certainly extremely important because the Giants have no one close to that standard of ruckman, but still, arguable whether you'd put him in the Ablett category, although it's all relative, in terms of importance to the team, Mummy would certainly come close.
Jack
Guest
They will fade soon just like Gold Coast did
TomC
Roar Guru
I think any of last year's teams would gladly take parts of any team's starting midfield. Sure, we need a few more weeks to truly assess how they're going, but what will inevitably happen is that they'll show some improvement, simply because they just can't keep going as poorly as they are, and certain people will write off their start to the season based on adjusting to Eade, or injuries, or the inconsistency of youth, and everyone will go back to overrating them again. This has happened before. Think the Bulldogs of 2013 or Brisbane in 2014. Right now, they have one win from their past eleven games, and that was against the wooden spooners. It's not just Eade, and in any case it's never just one thing.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Yeah I agree, this year I don't think we've seen that pattern emerge quite yet. Four of the top eight are definitely there, and I think the Bulldogs or GWS could squeeze in based on current form. But I'm not ready to make that call yet.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Do you really not rate Gold Coast's list? I think any of last year's bottom eight or ten sides would gladly take parts of Gold Coast's starting midfield (excluding Ablett because everyone would take him) and replace who they've currently got playing for them. I still think we need a few more weeks to truly assess whether the Suns are cactus and need to start again. I have a feeling they are taking time to adjust to Rocket.
Jack
Guest
Eh, still not really impressed. bottom 4 again this year, other then a rather disappointing sydney team, they have played minnow teams.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Remember it well. Certainly think round 10 is more likely to show us a top 4. I was surprised about the 6 of the top 8. I look at this years top 8 after round three and think....really? Adelaide, Sydney, Freo Hawthorn....yes Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Essendon....can't see it. If we are making calls, I would have to put Port and North in.
TomC
Roar Guru
But they haven't shown that at all. I don't know why people say that. This team has achieved very little, apart from a strong run early last year against mostly weak opposition. The Dogs are going great without Liberatore and Griffen. Sure every team would be better off with it's best player, but not every team falls into a muddled heap like the Suns do.
Don Freo
Guest
Shiel, Coniglio and Treloar have very significant Hodge/Lewis bodies. Ward and Griffin are not exactly slight or weak. I agree on GC. They are excellent...or were. The return of Ablett, Sam Day, Harbrow, maybe Malceski, O'Meara and David Swallow would help. Ok, we know O'Meara, a wonderful extractor of the ball in close, won't be back this year but GC's future lies with Rocket's ability to move into the 21st century...or be wise enough to call time on his ambition.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I think Gold Coast have shown they have the talent available to be a contender for the eight. Its all well and good to say "they're weaker without Gary Ablett" (and you aren't TomC, but that's the narrative), but if you took the clearly best player from every side, they wouldn't perform to the same level. Gold Coast aren't a top eight side just yet, and so the impact of taking their best player is more stark. Not to ruin something I've got in the works, but when Fremantle switched from Mark Harvey (a talent developer) to Ross Lyon (a tactician), in 2011, they ended up on nine wins for the season. Its too early to tell precisely if that's what's going on at Gold Coast, but I'm leaning that way.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I see your point, Peter. But if we're going to be in the game of making calls about what's happening, then that's what we need to do. Not to side track this article, but my piece wasn't built on what Essendon have done in 2015 - it was what they've managed to achieve since 2011 and what they've built and are now in the process of implementing. On the top four being locked in, you'd be interested in a piece I wrote last year looking at this issue, which found that in the past 10 years, three of the top four have tended to be in place by Round 10, and six of the top eight by Round Three (http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/06/23/know-2014-top-8-probably/)
TW
Guest
The Eagles coach Simpson summed them up - Young and enthusiastic. Early days yet but huge potential and you can only beat who you play There were some question marks around their coach Cameron but he has settled in well now. It just shows how difficult it is to judge how good the new coaches will be when they sign up.
TomC
Roar Guru
I think Franko made a reasonable point earlier about whether the Giants can sustain their strong form. One way or the other I reckon it'll be difficult, so it's important they make the most of this favourable patch of games. This week's game against West Coast becomes very important in that context. Really, the Giants should win. Not sure about Gold Coast 'coming good' as Ryan says. You don't need power rankings, just a set of eyes, to see how poorly they've been playing. They might scrape together a few wins late in the season to avoid finishing in the bottom two, but they're not going to threaten anyone this year. Their list has been greatly overrated by many.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Sorry for the repost, I was mid edit when the phone rang and may 10min expired Are Essendon the real deal. The top four is locked. Now GWS are taking Giant strides. Lets not get to far ahead of ourselves. There are lots of positives to take away but beating last years bottom dwellers; beating this years bottom dweller (GC) and hanging in tough against one of the top 4; is hardly much to base predictions on how they will fair against the rest. Looking at Ryan's list of upcoming matches, I can only see them winning 2 games before the round 13 bye (Carl, Bris). Their best chance might be against the Eagles this weekend, but it is a tough ask. I'm happy to be corrected. Lets have this conversation again come round 13.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
Gold Coast had a similar start last year and were looking certainties for the finals until their most important player (Ablett) went down with injury. I hope GWS has better luck but if there is one player they cannot afford to lose it is Mumford. If he goes down then I fear GWS would go down too.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Are Essendon the real deal. The top four is locked. Now GWS are taking Giant strides. Lets not get to far ahead of ourselves. There are lots of positives to take away but beating last years bottom dwellers, beating this years bottom dweller (GC) and hanging in tough against one of the top 4, is hardly much to base predictions on how they will fair against the rest. Ok, we might pencil them in for wins against Richmond or Melbourne, but looking at Ryan's list of upcoming matches, I wouldn't have them winning any of the next 6. Their best chance might be against the Eagles this weekend, but it is a tough ask. I'm happy to be corrected. Lets have this conversation again come round 10.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Yeah I still think Gold Coast will come good. I kept them around the middle of my power rankings in yesterday's column. The problem now is they've been destroyed by injuries, and they're not likely to win many games in the short-term. They're a better side than St Kilda, Carlton and Melbourne, and I'd argue Collingwood too.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"Winter is coming, do they have the hard bodies required?" That's where the aggression and commitment of Mumford, Ward and Griffen around the ball will really come to the fore. That trio will smash in, taking some of the heat off the likes of Shiel, Treloar, Whitfield and Coniglio. The more I'm watching GWS the more I think Griffin was a shrewd pickup. They already had midfield class and pace in spades so it was wise to go for another elite bullocker to win the ball and feed it out to the youngsters. Mumford, Ward and Griffin are as tough and hard as any on-ball trio in the comp.
Franko
Guest
Winter is coming, do they have the hard bodies required? They finish 11-14, too many people jump on or write off sides after one or two good games. GC aren't as bad as you think, GWS aren't as good.
Don Freo
Guest
The Giants are really strong but I think this week might make a few more pay serious attention to WC who I think are very well coached and a very tight unit. This is my game of the week and, as much as I love the Eagles, I'd be happy with either result. This won't be one of those 8 games.